AppLovin logo displayed on the screen of an iPad (Sheldon Cooper/Getty Images)

AppLovin craters on competitive threats from Meta, new AI tools, and a slower ramp of its new ad portal

However, Q4 results beat, and the Q1 outlook was also above estimates.

2/11/26 4:12PM

The bottom is falling out of AppLovin despite solid results and a better-than-expected outlook, as investors remain focused on the competitive threats from both new AI entrants as well as Meta and a warning that its new ad portal may not move the needle on the company’s financials in short order.

The ad tech company reported a top- and bottom-line beat for Q4, with guidance for the current quarter to match. Shares initially tanked in after-hours trading, but recovered a chunk of their losses ahead of the conference call.

Revenues: $1.66 billion (estimate: $1.61 billion, guidance for $1.57 billion to $1.6 billion).
Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4 billion (estimate: $1.33 billion, guidance for $1.29 billion to $1.32 billion).

For Q1, management said sales would range from $1.75 billion to $1.78 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $1.47 billion to $1.5 billion.

Wall Street had expected $1.7 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively.

On the call, CEO Adam Foroughi flagged a “disconnect between market sentiment and the reality of our business,” saying that the company was enjoying its strongest operating performance ever thanks to the growth in its own AI models.

Shares resumed their slide during the call after Chief Financial Officer Matt Stumpf said its self-service ad portal was not yet ready for a general launch, adding that it would be a while before this channel would impact the company’s overall numbers. After its Q2 report in August, Foroughi predicted that Q4 would be “a fun quarter” marked by the initial phase of the rollout of that ad portal.

“eCommerce, the wildcard in the Q, did not surprise to the upside leaving us too high; we estimate the October ‘Referral’ cohort contributed ~$34 million (vs. BofA $110) of ~$245 million (vs. BofA $335) total eCommerce revenue,” wrote Bank of America analyst Omar Dessouky. “About half our clients expected a higher eCommerce contribution like we did.”

The company fielded more questions on the call on the competitive threat from Meta, which has been able to muscle its way into a bigger market share on iOS, than new AI entrants.

In 2026, things haven’t been too fun for AppLovin. It’s a software stock, which means it’s been bludgeoned due to fears surrounding competitive threats from new AI tools and entrants. Ahead of this report, shares closed down more than 3% on Wednesday after peer Unity Software’s Q1 guidance came in shy of expectations.

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Luke Kawa, Toby Bochan

3/27/26

Stocks tumble with Nasdaq 100 posting largest weekly loss since April tariff sell-off

Fridays have been the worst day for the S&P 500 since the war began.

Luke Kawa3/27/26

Peloton spikes after Eric Jackson says he’s long the stock at $4

Peloton jumped to session highs to trade up more than 7% after EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson said he was long the fitness company at $4.

Jackson has a big following in the retail community after serving as the architect of the parabolic rally in online real estate company Opendoor Technologies from July through September.

His tweet at 11:56 a.m. ET coincided with a spike in the share price as well as volumes traded (which may well imply that algos are geared to buy any stock he comments favorably on). Shares of other companies he’s announced a bullish view on since the Opendoor episode have also seen a massive announcement effect, including Better Home & Finance in September and Nextdoor in December.

All three of those stocks are currently down 50% or more from their 52-week highs.

In a thread on X, Jackson indicated that Peloton screens as very cheap based on how much free cash flow it generates, and he sees recent insider purchases as an important vote of confidence in the company from its management team. In an updated tweet, he noted that what he previously thought were insider purchases were actually options exercises, but said that this had no impact on his outlook.

Correction: the Form 4 filings I referenced were option exercises, not open market purchases. I've updated the full piece. Thanks to @mylesgrote for flagging.

The thesis is unchanged — $345M FCF, 5x multiple, improving churn, Chewy comp. But the insider framing was wrong and I…
— Eric Jackson (@ericjackson) March 27, 2026

Matt Phillips3/27/26

Sandisk bounces off 50-day moving average amid reprieve for memory stocks

Sandisk shares bounced off their 50-day moving average Friday, ending a multiday bloodbath for the stock that sent it down as much as 15% from where it closed last week.

The worst of the slump came as Google Research disclosed details this week of its TurboQuant AI algorithm, which Google said could allow AI language models to operate more efficiently, cutting demand for memory storage at AI data centers.

Sandisk tumbled in response, along with other AI memory trade stocks such as Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, which have been some of the market’s top performers this year.

Friday’s reprieve comes as analysts have emphasized the so-called Jevons Paradox implications of the TurboQuant news.

That is, if the Google algorithm lowers the amount of memory required for AI operations, it could make data centers more affordable and cheaper to use, resulting in more investment and thus more sales of memory products over time.

“In this scenario, lower memory requirements could then be offset by higher overall AI adoption and ultimately support inference-led storage demand rather than weaken it,” Citi analysts wrote in a note published Thursday after meeting with Sandisk executives. “This is counter to the initial market reaction, which was instead focused on the short-term view that more efficient AI models would simply reduce memory demand.”

Matt Phillips3/27/26

Trump’s Hormuz deadline delay fails to soothe markets amid signs of US and Iranian escalation

There’s little sign of relief in the markets from President Trump’s announcement yesterday of a 10-day delay of the deadline he imposed on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices are climbing and stocks are once again slumping, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 small-cap index all in the red early Friday.

Consumer discretionary stocks sank. Cruise lines Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival — which cut its profit outlook on climbing fuel costs as part of earnings Friday — are falling. Other bellwethers of discretionary consumer spending that are less oil-exposed, like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Starbucks, are sinking.

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

The energy trade, of course, keyed off the climb in crude oil prices, with benchmark US West Texas Intermediate rising to roughly $98 a barrel, despite Trump’s assurances as part of his deadline delay on Thursday that talks to end the war “are going very well.”

Those comments were largely brushed aside by the markets, a starkly different reaction from the president’s previous delay of the same deadline on Monday. That announcement generated a massive relief rally in crude oil prices and stocks on the hopes that substantive negotiations would begin shortly, or already had.

But Iran’s rejection of an initial US peace plan on Thursday, along with reports that the administration is considering sending another 10,000 US troops to the region and that Chinese ships trying to transit the Hormuz choke point had turned back, seemed to undercut that message.

“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” market analyst Jim Bianco wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Friday. “Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”

President Trump extends Strait of Hormuz opening deadline to April 6

Trump delays Strait of Hormuz deadline as Wall Street has biggest loss of war

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

Luke Kawa3/27/26

Meta’s energy deal with Entergy boosts AI-linked utilities stocks

Shares of Entergy are soaring on Friday after Meta agreed to fund the creation of seven natural gas-fired power plants to secure energy for its mammoth Hyperion data center project in Louisiana.

The news is also boosting other AI-linked utilities plays, with Constellation Energy, Vistra, and NRG also trading well to the upside on Friday.

In a press release, Entergy said the deal was “structured to ensure Meta pays its full cost of service.” Electricity prices have become a hot-button political issue, with President Trump pushing tech giants to “pay their own way” on the costs associated with fueling data centers in a bid to avoid having households shoulder any of this burden.

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