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The 5th China International Import Expo (CIIE) In Shanghai
Visitors watch a video of the "unboxing" of lithography machines at ASML's booth at the Fifth China International Import Expo. (CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
Chipping away

Shares of Europe’s second-biggest company are crashing on soft semiconductor demand

ASML’s third-quarter bookings were half of what analysts expected, and its share of business in China is coming under pressure.

Luke Kawa

Semiconductor-equipment supplier ASML accidentally released an underwhelming earnings report a day ahead of schedule, sending shares dropping by more than 15.6% — its biggest daily drop since 1998.

The key misstep, in the market’s eyes: the Dutch-based firm’s third-quarter order bookings were less than half of what Wall Street expected, coming in at just €2.6 billion, while its guidance for net sales in 2025 was also trimmed.

Ask anyone in business news and they’ll probably tell you this is The Most Important Company You’ve Never Heard Of — and if they don’t, we will.

ASML stands at a choke point for the semiconductor industry, upstream of the fabrication plants that make the end product. Simply, the company is the key facilitator for chipmakers to make chips. The company’s unique place in the semiconductor ecosystem — coupled with the fact that nearly half of its sales are to China — has attracted political scrutiny and export restrictions imposed by the US and Dutch governments. CFO Roger Dassen said that sales to China would account for roughly 20% of its total revenue next year, a substantial drop-off.

And outside of AI-linked demand, the appetite for semiconductors doesn’t look too strong.

“While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover,” said President and CEO Christophe Fouquet. “It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness.”

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Nvidia poised to invest $20 billion in OpenAI, per report

Nvidia is close to investing $20 billion in OpenAI’s funding round, per Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.

That would make its OpenAI stake more than the market value of chip designer’s entire portfolio of publicly traded stocks (a little over $15 billion, assuming no changes since their most recent filings).

Media reports have suggested that Amazon and SoftBank would be contributing even more to this oft-discussed funding round, in which the Sam Altman-led venture is aiming to raise $100 billion.

It’s a fairly happy ending after the two sides traded barbs in the press over the past few days, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had privately questioned the “lack of discipline” in the ChatGPT maker’s business approach, while sources told Reuters that OpenAI was “unsatisfied” by the performance of Nvidia’s AI chips and seeking alternatives.

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Chipotle beats Q4 estimates, but sinks on underwhelming full-year guidance

Chipotle reported earnings results that beat Wall Street estimates, but gave underwhelming full-year guidance.

For the last three months of 2025, Chipotle reported:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, compared to the $0.24 analysts polled by FactSet were expecting.

  • Revenue of $3 billion, a bit higher than the $2.9 billion the Street was penciling in.

  • A comparable-store sales decline of 2.5%, less than the 2.9% decline the Street was expecting.

For the full year in 2026, Chipotle expects:

  • Comparable-store sales to be flat, compared to the 1.7% growth analysts were expecting.

Chipotle has struggled to spark sales over the past year and has previously cited strained consumers as a major headwind. The company fell more than 9% in after-hours trading shortly after the report was released.

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Take-Two raises its net bookings outlook, reaffirms November release for “Grand Theft Auto 6”

“Grand Theft Auto” and “NBA 2K” maker Take-Two reported results for its fiscal third quarter on Tuesday. Its shares climbed about 4% in after-hours trading.

The company posted net bookings, or the amount customers spent on its products, of $1.76 billion, up 28% from the same quarter last year. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expected $1.58 billion. In November, Take-Two guided for Q3 net bookings of between $1.55 billion and $1.6 billion.

Take-Two hiked its full-year bookings outlook to between $6.65 billion and $6.7 billion, up from a range of $6.4 billion to $6.5 billion. The new outlook compares to Wall Street’s $6.47 billion estimate. The gaming giant trimmed its full-year net loss guidance to between $369 million and $338 million (prior guidance: between $414 million and $349 million).

In its last quarter, Take-Two pushed back the planned release date of “Grand Theft Auto 6” from May 2026 to November 19, 2026. The company reaffirmed that date in Tuesday’s report. The game’s last trailer came in May 2025.

Shares of Take-Two and other major gaming companies have been sinking since late last week as investors react to early showcases of Google’s Project Genie, which allows users to generate interactive, “playable” worlds with a text or image prompt. As of Tuesday’s close, Take-Two has shed nearly $6 billion in market cap since Project Genie was released.

Analysts have called the market reaction unjustified, saying that the tool doesn’t allow for meaningful interactivity or replay-ability. According to mBank analyst Piotr Poniatowski, Project Genie is — at the moment — essentially a “one-minute-long walking simulator generator.”

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