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Claire Yubin Oh10/15/25

ASML rises after Q3 bookings came in 10% ahead of estimates, offsetting a weak outlook in its China business

ASML shares are up over 4% in European trading on Wednesday after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker reported 5.4 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in bookings in the third quarter, roughly ~10% ahead of the 4.9 billion euros expected by analysts (Bloomberg consensus estimates).

After striking a much more cautious tone in July, the company’s strong outlook for the remaining year helped reassure investors, despite realized revenues actually coming in a touch light relative to expectations in the quarter.

In Q3, the company has “seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers,” ASML President and CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the press release. He added, “We do not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025.”

Europe’s largest company now expects fourth-quarter sales between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%, finishing the full year with 15% growth in total net sales. The lithography systems maker is also now targeting 60 billion euros of revenue in 2030, up from 28.3 billion euros last year.

The only significant blemish in the report was China. Responsible for ~42% of its net system sales this quarter, revenue from China will “decline significantly compared to our very strong business there in 2024 and 2025,” Fouquet said.

ASML has seen its stock rally nearly 30% this year as the dominant supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to produce sophisticated chips.

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Max Knoblauch5h

United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.
$14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks slip as peace prospects dim

Stocks swung from positive to negative as Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan for Iran peace talks was canceled.

Grizzly bear growling USA.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7 — Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders aren’t fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

The parabolic surge in Avis reached new heights, with shares halted for volatility

More motivated buyers than motivated sellers.

Travelers at Sacramento International Airport (SMF)

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