markets

Matt Phillips9/30/25

Betting stocks slammed on growing pressure from prediction markets

The duopoly that dominates the US online sports betting business — DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment — dove Tuesday after prediction markets company Kalshi quietly introduced a new feature mimicking the popular parlay-style sports bets that have been an important differentiator for the sportsbooks from fast-growing prediction markets.

Robinhood Markets, which has partnered with prediction markets platform Kalshi to offer event contracts to its users, has surged to record highs in recent days on signs that its prediction markets business is gaining traction as the NFL season unfolds.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Market analysts have noted that prediction markets — which in the US are regulated as financial products by the CFTC — have some significant regulatory advantages compared to non-prediction market sports betting activity, which typically operates under state gaming regulators.

“Prediction markets like Kalshi, which is available nationwide to anyone over 18, are... increasingly an alternative to traditional online sportsbooks like DraftKings, which is generally available 21 and up in about half the country,” analyst Edwin Dorsey wrote earlier this month on his newsletter The Bear Cave, which spotlights potential short positions on some stocks.

Separately, Flutter is also under some idiosyncratic pressure amid reports that Rachel Reeves, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, is open to raising taxes on the country’s gambling companies in the upcoming budget.

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Nike craters after issuing weak revenue guidance

Sportswear kingpin Nike is tumbling on Wednesday morning after saying it doesn’t expect to grow sales this year.

On its fiscal Q3 earnings call, management said that revenue is expected to drop 2% to 4% in the current quarter, and that overall they “expect revenues to be down low-single-digits versus the prior year, with gains in North America offset by declines in Greater China.” That’s a disappointment to analysts, who were anticipating 2% growth in Q4 and even more in the latter stages of the year, per Bloomberg.

Nike’s Q3 sales in China — where the company earns about 15% of its revenue — fell 7% to $1.62 billion. The company had issued weak guidance for this quarter considering continued softness in the region. That’s its seventh straight quarter of sales declines in the market. While this quarter’s was decline was less than feared, management warned that more pain is in the offing.

Nike’s turnaround effort “is complex work, and parts of it are taking longer than I’d like,” said CEO Elliott Hill.

Nike’s fiscal Q3 results (the three months ended February) were solid at the headline level:

Earnings of $0.35 per share, comfortably above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $0.29 per share compiled by FactSet.
$11.28 billion in total revenue, roughly in line with the $11.26 billion estimate.

But the gloomy sales outlook has Wall Street analysts souring on the stock:

JPMorgan downgraded the shares to “neutral” from “overweight” and cut its price target to $52 from $86.
Citi reduced its target price to $53 from $65,
Stifel lowered its price target to $56 from $65,
Truist reduced its price target to $57 from $69, and
Barclays cut its target price to $67 from $73.

Nike shares are trading near decade lows this month, as tariffs continue to weigh on profits and shipping costs rise amid the war with Iran. As of Tuesday’s close, the stock was down 17% year to date.

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Oil-sensitive travel stocks pop following Iran state media reporting on potential war resolution

Travel stocks are surging on Tuesday as oil prices fall following reports from Iranian state media that President Masoud Pezeshkian said the country has “the necessary will to end this war,” but would only do so with guarantees that “prevent the recurrence of aggression.”

The war has sent oil prices and refining margins surging this month, causing airlines and cruise lines to cut profit forecasts despite reported high demand.

Following Tuesday’s update, shares of the big four US airlines (Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest Airlines) all climbed, along with smaller rivals including JetBlue. US airlines have stopped fuel hedging in recent years, increasing their exposure to upward swings in oil prices.

Cruise stocks also rallied, with Carnival and Norwegian up more than 6% and Royal Caribbean up about 5%.

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