Bitcoin is behaving like a no-fundamentals tech stock

The three-month correlation between the daily changes in the iShares Bitcoin ETF and a Goldman Sachs basket of nonprofitable tech stocks is at a record high.

12/17/25 10:29AM

Digital gold. An uncorrelated store of value. An uncorrelated asset.

Bitcoin’s been called many things, and those aforementioned monikers may reflect how the preeminent crypto asset has behaved at different times over the past decade. However, that does not describe its current regime, in which it’s trading like a tech company that doesn’t make any money.

The three-month correlation between the iShares Bitcoin Trust and an index of nonprofitable tech stocks compiled by Goldman Sachs recently hit a record at 0.62.

Of course, this fund has a history of less than two years, so “record” may ring a little hollow. Turning to the three-month correlation between the weekly changes of bitcoin and this nonprofitable tech basket (to adjust for weekend trading days), the story is the same, though mildly less extreme relative to history. That correlation stands at about 0.78, in the 97th percentile based on data going back to December 2014.

In other words, if you’re looking to try to explain the movements in bitcoin these days, the answer can be found in how broad appetite for speculation waxes and wanes.

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