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Matt Phillips

The right comp for Tesla stock is bitcoin

That’s one of the key takeaways from Barclays analyst Dan Levy’s attempt to make sense of Tesla’s vertiginous tumble over the last few days.

The stock — which, to be fair, is up slightly in early trading — has been pummeled in recent days as the air has come out of the postelection Trump trade that sent shares of companies with financial or ideological linkages to President Trump soaring.

Levy argues that the rally, which pushed Tesla up by more than 90% in the weeks after the November election, was never about any kind of fundamentals. In fact, Tesla, which is valued at a multiple of 145x its expected 2025 earnings, doesn’t really trade like a stock. It trades like bitcoin. He wrote:

“Bitcoin is the right comp: Tesla stock reflects many of the same ‘animal spirit’ factors that tend to drive Bitcoin (up ~50% post-election to mid-Dec vs. Tesla up ~90%) and other cryptocurrencies. This includes belief in future value that is underpinned by the potential for large-scale disruption (not just in Autos, but many of Tesla's ‘other bets’ such as robotics and AI), scarcity (the only public Elon Musk company), and to some extent Greater Fool Theory (the popularity of Tesla makes a strong case that the next generation of investors will be buying the stock for years to come).”

In other words, Tesla’s postelection rally was a speculative spurt of retail trading rather than a sound bet on the prospects of Tesla’s businesses. And, as Elon Musk deepens his immersion in right-wing politics and becomes increasingly associated with the Trump adminstration, those prospects actually seem to be looking worse and worse.

“Bitcoin is the right comp: Tesla stock reflects many of the same ‘animal spirit’ factors that tend to drive Bitcoin (up ~50% post-election to mid-Dec vs. Tesla up ~90%) and other cryptocurrencies. This includes belief in future value that is underpinned by the potential for large-scale disruption (not just in Autos, but many of Tesla's ‘other bets’ such as robotics and AI), scarcity (the only public Elon Musk company), and to some extent Greater Fool Theory (the popularity of Tesla makes a strong case that the next generation of investors will be buying the stock for years to come).”

In other words, Tesla’s postelection rally was a speculative spurt of retail trading rather than a sound bet on the prospects of Tesla’s businesses. And, as Elon Musk deepens his immersion in right-wing politics and becomes increasingly associated with the Trump adminstration, those prospects actually seem to be looking worse and worse.

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Max Knoblauch

Hims continues to rise on analyst upgrades following its Novo Nordisk partnership

Shares of telehealth company Hims & Hers climbed Tuesday as analysts upgraded the stock following the Monday announcement of its landmark deal with Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk.

Shares were recently up 12%.

Citi upgraded Hims to “neutral/high risk” from “sell/high risk” in a Monday afternoon note, writing that the deal “significantly de-risks Hims.” Citi analyst Daniel Grosslight wrote:

“Valuation remains tricky for Hims as much hinges on (1) how much compounded GLP-1 revenue/adj. EBITDA remains post-partnership and (2) how much of the hole HIMS can fill with its branded offering.”

Hims also received an upgrade to “neutral” from “underperform” from Bank of America:

“By partnering with Novo Nordisk and transitioning patients to Novo’s branded product, Hims is likely to experience some attrition, but is also likely to gain new members that are looking for a branded drug.”

The deal will see Novo’s Wegovy offered on Hims in its injection and pill forms later this month, priced at the level Novo charges for self-pay. Hims will also offer Ozempic to treat diabetes. Hims won’t advertise compounded GLP-1s, according to Novo Nordisk. A previous deal between the companies last year fell apart in 55 days after Novo accused Hims of “illegal mass compounding and deceptive marketing.”

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Max Knoblauch & Claire Yubin Oh

Nio just reported its first-ever quarterly profit in its Q4 results

Chinese EV maker Nio jumped in premarket trading on Tuesday after it reported solid top- and bottom-line results, booking its first-ever quarter of positive (non-GAAP) operating profits, some 1,251 million yuan ($179 million), on a quarterly basis.

Nio reported adjusted net earnings of $0.04 per share in Q4, beating the $0.02 loss per share expected by Wall Street analysts (compiled by FactSet).

The company booked $4.95 billion in revenue, also topping the $4.86 billion consensus estimate, and deliveries came in at 124,807, up more than 70% year on year.

Looking ahead, the company says that it expects deliveries of vehicles “to be between 80,000 and 83,000 vehicles” in Q1 — an acceleration in growth, with those figures implying annual rises of 90% and 97% from the same quarter of 2025. However, Bloomberg estimates suggest this figure might marginally disappoint — with analysts currently penciling in 88,700 deliveries for Q1 2026.

Celebrating its first quarter of profits, CFO Stanley Yu Qu cited the company’s “strong delivery and revenue growth, an optimized product mix, and cost reduction and efficiency enhancement initiatives” in its press release.

CEO William Bin Li also added, “Looking ahead to 2026, we will continue to invest decisively in our twelve full-stack core technologies, launch new models, enhance the commercial and operational capabilities of our battery swapping and charging network, and continue upgrading our sales and service network.” Nio shares climbed in late February after it announced that it had reached 1 million battery swaps — its alternative to fast charging — in less than a week amid the Lunar New Year holiday. This month, Nio’s Chinese rival BYD unveiled a fast-charging battery seen as a direct challenge to the EV maker’s swap station network.

markets
Hyunsoo Rim

Oil slides and stocks tepidly rise after Trump says US-Iran war is nearing its end

Oil prices dropped on Tuesday morning, with front-month crude futures down more than 6%, as traders digested President Trump’s comments late Monday suggesting the US-Iran conflict may soon end — easing fears that have rattled global energy and stock markets over the past 10 days.

On Monday, Trump told CBS News reporter Weijia Jiang in a phone interview that the war is “very complete, pretty much.” He later tempered that somewhat at a separate press conference held at Trump National Doral in Miami, saying the conflict would end “very soon,” though not this week.

Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, markets have been experiencing relentless volatility: Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel during Monday’s trading session, the highest intraday price since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Gas prices, which largely track crude, even breached the $3.50-per-gallon mark, with analysts and prediction markets eyeing the $4 mark as a real possibility if the conflict drags on.

Despite Tuesday’s pullback following Trump’s remarks, oil prices remain elevated, up roughly 50% since the start of the year as disruptions continue around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

After turning a deeply red day into a green one yesterday, equity traders continued to breathe a tentative sigh of relief. After the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 closed higher Monday, wiping out steep intraday losses, S&P 500 futures were modestly in the green early on Tuesday, while Europe’s STOXX 600 rallied ~2%.

As of 9:07 a.m. ET, however, S&P 500 futures have dipped 0.22% and oil has pared some of its earlier losses, following Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s warning that today would be the “most intense day of strikes inside Iran.”

Go Deeper: Why extreme oil price volatility sets off alarm bells for markets and the economy

Luke Kawa
3h
US gas prices exceed $3.50 per gallon for the first time since July 2024

Prediction markets no longer see $4 gas as likely at the end of March, however.

Man pumping gas at Gas Station, Florida
markets
Claire Yubin Oh

TSMC grew its sales 30% year on year in January and February

Taiwan Semiconductor ticked higher in premarket trading on Tuesday after the chipmaker reported a 30% jump in sales for the first two months of 2026, compared to the year before.

A key supplier for AI industry giants like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, TSMC saw its combined January and February revenue grow to NT$718.9 billion ($22.6 billion), per its monthly revenue report, published early on Tuesday morning.

The company notched NT$317 billion in February alone, growing 22% from a year ago and decelerating from January’s 37% year-on-year growth. For the coming full Q1, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg are anticipating growth of 33% — suggesting a strong March will be needed to meet that figure.

Charles Shum, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, noted that the modest weakness in the first two months is more likely due to softer performance in smartphones and PCs, rather than cooling AI chip demand, as soaring memory prices put pressure on shipments.

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