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French acrobat Olivier Mathieu mimics recent price action in crypto (Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images)

Bitcoin’s plunge produces technical signal that implies 60% more downside to come

“Longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” writes Tallbacken Capital Advisors CEO Michael Purves.

The rout in bitcoin is poised to produce a bearish technical signal that has meant “substantial more downside to come” in four of its prior five instances, according to Michael Purves, CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

He’s looking at the signal generated from the monthly moving average convergence/divergence indicator (or MACD). The technical gauge, in this case, takes the difference between the 26-month exponential moving average (EMA) of an asset with its 12-month EMA. The difference between those two is the MACD — and when that MACD crosses below its own nine-month EMA, what’s known as the signal line, that’s considered to be bearish (vice versa if crossing above).

November is slated to be the sixth time this monthly MACD sell signal has been generated in bitcoin’s history. 80% of the time, bitcoin has gone on to fall about 60% after this technical breakdown occurs.

“Longer term dip buying right now appears less likely and bearish momentum is reinforced,” Purves wrote.

Bitcoin MACD Signal Tallbacken
Source: Tallbacken Capital Advisors

Separately, Purves also observed that bitcoin has had a much higher positive correlation with other asset classes compared to the first half of 2021, another period when there was immense appetite for tech stocks in general and speculative ones in particular. However, he expects some of this strong relationship to begin to wane in the near term.

“In the immediate term, we note that Bitcoin is very oversold (daily RSI) at 22 and has been bouncing off the 80k level, the point of the Liberation Day lows,” concluded Purves, who does not have a position recommended on the crypto asset as this time. “Some near term consolidation should be expected.”

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Broadcom soars as rave reviews for Gemini 3 boost appeal of its custom chips

When spectators saw Michael Jordan blossom as a basketball star, it made them want to buy Nike’s Air Jordans.

Mizuho reckons there’s a similar halo effect for Broadcom based on the rave reviews for Google’s latest GenAI model, which include this ringing endorsement from Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff.

“Gemini 3 was trained and powered on Google homegrown TPU chips, which benefits partner AVGO,” wrote Daniel O’Regan, Mizuho’s managing director of equity trading.

Custom chips (ASICs) are Broadcom’s specialty, and as O’Regan noted, Google and Broadcom codesigned these building blocks for Gemini 3. Boosts to Google’s capex budget have tended to buoy shares of Broadcom, since it’s a big beneficiary of these outlays.

The early positive reception to Gemini 3 implies that: a) Google will want to continue this relationship (and need more chips for training and inference!), and b) other GenAI developers might be more willing to pursue the custom chip route for AI models and inference, perhaps eating into market share for Nvidia’s GPU-based solutions.

To this end, Broadcom announced a collaboration with OpenAI in mid-October to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has argued that GPU-centric data center solutions are superior because of how ubiquitous the firm’s CUDA software is in high-performance computing.

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Citi ups Oklo price target as company executes “on all fronts”

Citi analysts lifted their price target for aspiring nuclear power provider Oklo Monday, after meeting with management last week.

They cited progress on the company’s reactor licensing strategy, its new radioactive fuel supply business — part of an acquisition that closed in March — as well as Oklo’s ability to borrow at lower-than-expected costs recently.

Analysts led by Vikram Bagri, who have a “neutral/high risk” rating on the stock, lifted their price target to $95 a share from $68. (It’s currently trading around $90.) They wrote:

“The company is executing on all fronts with new supply contracts for long lead time items, a dual-track licensing approach, diversification through its radioisotope business, and the exploration of new avenues for fuel procurement. We lift our target price as we incorporate radioisotope business.”

In particular, they spotlighted Oklo’s strategy of pursuing licensing for its reactors on parallel tracks with both the Nuclear Regulatory Commission — the traditional decider on all things nuclear in the US — and the Department of Energy, which under the Trump administration has begun issuing faster authorizations for initial development of experimental reactors, without applicants having to wait for full commercial approval of reactor plans from the NRC, as was previously typical. We recently wrote about that approach here.

Oklo has no revenue and Wall Street analysts don’t expect it to have any significant sales until 2028, when they project it will still be seeing losses.

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