Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Can tech giants keep stock-market volatility suppressed?

Yes, when you’re the leaders of a cohort that’s greater than 40% of the S&P 500, you warrant getting two out of the five top charts to watch. 

One hallmark of 2024 was the extremely low realized correlation among members of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks. That is to say, on a daily basis, these stocks tended to march to the beat of their own drums, despite all operationally doing a similar thing: spending billions to enhance their AI functionality in their respective key business lines — while Nvidia, again, is just raking in these dollars.

It’s particularly noteworthy that Tesla is the chief driver of lower correlations as of late. The last time it was this much of a unique snowflake versus this group was when the stock traded in a range for three years, compared to going straight up after the election. 

What were the consequences of this for the US stock market as a whole? Well, the implied and realized volatility of the S&P 500 is a function of how much individual stocks move and how much they tend to move in the same direction — that is, their correlation. The one-year rolling average of the one-month co-movement of the S&P 500’s top 50 constituents ended 2024 at a record low (based on data going back to 2011), and this phenomenon among the megacaps is a big reason why.

This dynamic has important implications for how much money some types of investors are willing to put into stocks. We live in a world where many hundreds of billions of assets under management are systematically tied to the volatility of what they own — so called vol-control funds or risk-parity strategies.

Whether due to a slide in the economy or some industry-specific common factor (say, a downward revision of the expected returns on AI investments), anything that raises the co-movement of tech giants is going to lower how much stock-market exposure those funds will have. And, as the clichéd line goes and the chart shows, in a crisis, correlations go to one.

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Luke Kawa

US stocks just suffered one of their most stunning reversals in 32 years

Only four times in the more than 32-year history of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF has the fund opened at least 1.5% higher only to end the session down 1.5% or more.

And one of those days was today, with early enthusiasm over Nvidia’s strong earnings report turning into a wave of selling as speculative assets, chief among them bitcoin, cratered and dragged everything down with them. The S&P 500’s winners in particular saw heavy selling. Among the 15 stocks in the index that are up at least 70% year to date, the average performance on Thursday was down 5.6%.

The other occasions where US stocks have suffered such a violent turnabout:

April 8 of this year (the bottom, year to date!), when the White House said tariffs on China were going up to above 100%, kneecapping a nascent bounce-back attempt after a 10% drubbing in the three days after the Rose Garden tariff announcements. President Donald Trump would go on to announce that he was slashing reciprocal tariffs for 90 days the following session.

And the other two such instances both occurred in October 2008 (on the 7th and the 9th), as the fallout from the unfolding financial crisis was spreading after the prior month’s collapse of Lehman Brothers and the VIX Index, Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge,” was routinely above 50, making immense volatility par for the course.

Tasha Matsumoto
3h
Stocks sink as strong Nvidia earnings fail to ease Wall Street’s AI anxiety

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all fell, with tech leading the sell-off.

Chicago Bears wide receiver Trent Taylor (15) fumbles a punt during the first quarter of the National Football League game between the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns
markets
Matt Phillips

Insurance against Oracle default becomes favorite AI-bust hedge, Bloomberg reports

Volume in the market for credit default swaps — essentially a kind of insurance against a company defaulting on its debts — on Oracle is surging as the company has supercharged its borrowing to finance its AI ambitions, Bloomberg’s Caleb Mutua reports:

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

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A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

A Hedge Against AI Crash Emerges as Oracle CDS Market Explodes

“The price to protect against the company defaulting on its debt for five years tripled in recent months to as high as about 1.11 percentage point a year on Wednesday, or around $111,000 for every $10 million of principal protected, according to ICE Data Services.

As AI skeptics rushed in, trading volume on the company’s CDS ballooned to about $5 billion over the seven weeks ended Nov. 14, according to Barclays Plc credit strategist Jigar Patel. That’s up from a little more than $200 million in the same period last year.”

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Vince Carter

Nvidia dunks on the doubters

CEO Jensen Huang and CFO Colette Kress dismantled most of the recent arguments and bear cases put forward by their naysayers.

Luke Kawa7h
markets
Matt Phillips

Cipher Mining surges on additional AI hosting deal

Bitcoin miner turned AI compute power provider Cipher Mining jumped early Thursday after announcing a deal that fully leases its Barber Lake data center in Colorado City, Texas.

The deal — which is also giving a lift to IREN, another miner turned compute provider — is an expansion of a previous agreement with Fluidstack, a UK-based provider of GPU-based cloud networks. The new deal amounts to roughly $830 million in additional revenue over 10 years, Cipher says.

The market clearly loves it. But it’s worth pointing out that this agreement is a pretty good example of the byzantine financial structures that are increasingly accompanying plans for many billions of dollars of spending on the AI boom.

For example, Cipher also announced Thursday that it would be borrowing $333 million to finance an expansion of that Barber Lake data center through a private placement of debt.

That offering will be secured, in part, by the warrants Google received to purchase Cipher common stock worth roughly 5.4% of the company. (Those warrants, by the way, look a lot more valuable today, with Cipher mining up double digits.) Google is also backstopping Fluidstack’s borrowing plans to finance its build-out to the tune of $1.4 billion.

For now, this makes financial sense. Alphabet — one of the most successful companies on the planet — needs the computing power to compete in the AI race. And the quickest way to get that capacity is to essentially cosign leases for the smaller companies taking the lead in that build-out, thereby lowering development costs and helping to bring projects into existence.

But in this deal alone, things get awfully complicated awfully quickly, as Alphabet is essentially the prime customer of, an important debt guarantor for, and potentially a significant owner in Cipher Mining, once it transfers the warrants into an ownership stake of more than 5%.

This isn’t, on its face, a terrible thing. There are precedents for circular funding relationships in industries like aerospace, as it developed from the 1920s to the 1950s.

But financial complexity does have a history of essentially hiding the level and locus of financial risks a system is building up, essentially during periods of heady optimism.

Cipher Mining Signs Additional 56 MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack

Cipher Mining Signs Additional 56 MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack

The market clearly loves it. But it’s worth pointing out that this agreement is a pretty good example of the byzantine financial structures that are increasingly accompanying plans for many billions of dollars of spending on the AI boom.

For example, Cipher also announced Thursday that it would be borrowing $333 million to finance an expansion of that Barber Lake data center through a private placement of debt.

That offering will be secured, in part, by the warrants Google received to purchase Cipher common stock worth roughly 5.4% of the company. (Those warrants, by the way, look a lot more valuable today, with Cipher mining up double digits.) Google is also backstopping Fluidstack’s borrowing plans to finance its build-out to the tune of $1.4 billion.

For now, this makes financial sense. Alphabet — one of the most successful companies on the planet — needs the computing power to compete in the AI race. And the quickest way to get that capacity is to essentially cosign leases for the smaller companies taking the lead in that build-out, thereby lowering development costs and helping to bring projects into existence.

But in this deal alone, things get awfully complicated awfully quickly, as Alphabet is essentially the prime customer of, an important debt guarantor for, and potentially a significant owner in Cipher Mining, once it transfers the warrants into an ownership stake of more than 5%.

This isn’t, on its face, a terrible thing. There are precedents for circular funding relationships in industries like aerospace, as it developed from the 1920s to the 1950s.

But financial complexity does have a history of essentially hiding the level and locus of financial risks a system is building up, essentially during periods of heady optimism.

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