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Hyunsoo Rim

Celsius soars after announcing plan to buy Gen Z-focused competitor, shrugging off Q4 sales dip

Celsius Holdings, the energy drink brand beloved by celebrities and fitness influencers, is spiking in early trading after disclosing a $1.65 billion deal (net of tax assets) to acquire rival beverage maker Alani Nu.

Yesterday’s acquisition announcement came almost simultaneously with the company’s Q4 earnings, which revealed sales were down 4% year on year, better than analysts were forecasting, per Barron’s.

Since its Nasdaq debut in 2010, Celsius’ stock has been on a wild ride.

It was delisted from the Nasdaq at the end of that year, and while it returned in 2017, shares remained below $2 — until the company signed major distribution deals with beverage giants like AB InBev, Keurig Dr Pepper, and PepsiCo as consumers came around to its “healthier energy drink” marketing message. Since 2020, its revenues have grown more than tenfold, sending shares to an all-time high of ~$100 in March.

But, since peaking in May 2024, shares have plunged ~73%, wiping out over $16 billion in market cap as PepsiCo — Celsius’ primary US distributor — cut back orders to adjust inventory levels, triggering a 31% year-over-year revenue drop in Q3.

Acquiring the seven-year-old Alani Nu, which is popular among Gen Z and millennial women, might be the shot in the arm Celsius needs: in January, Alani Nu saw retail sales jump 78% from the previous year, according to Circana. Celsius expects the combination to drive the company’s revenue toward ~$2 billion (up from the $1.4 billion it pulled in alone in 2024), and boost its energy drink market share from 11% to 16%. Currently, Celsius holds the third spot in the $23 billion US energy drink market, trailing Red Bull and Monster.

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Walt Hickey

Department of Commerce will soon allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip to China: report

The US Department of Commerce will give the go-ahead to export the the powerful H200 chip produced by Nvidia to China, which has been a core priority of the chip juggernaut, according a source with “knowledge of the plan,” Semafor reports. The chipmaker’s stock surged on the news.

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington DC have been hesitant to allow the export the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

Exclusive: Commerce to open up exports of NVIDIA H200 Chips to China

The Chinese government has blocked the import of less powerful chips such as the H20, while China hawks in Washington DC have been hesitant to allow the export the defining technology of the AI era to a rival emerging superpower.

Nevertheless, China’s tech industry has managed to produce models from DeepSeek and Alibaba that compete globally.

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Matt Phillips

SpaceX valuation chatter lifts satellite stocks

Satellite stocks rose early Monday, riding a wave of excitement about recent reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s satellite startup, SpaceX, is shooting for an $800 billion valuation as it launches a secondary share sale.

EchoStar and Rocket Lab rose, partly in response to the report.

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote that the valuation news has positive implications for owners of satellite spectrum rights.

If the reported valuation is ultimately achieved, it would be a mark-to-market moment suggesting that traditional satellite spectrum rights are worth more than the market had previously assumed.

That likely explains some of EchoStar’s outperformance on the day. As a legacy provider of satellite-based television services — such as Dish Network — it is a large owner of that spectrum, and has recently been an opportunistic seller of those assets, including to AT&T and SpaceX.

But the market doesn’t seem to like the implications for AST SpaceMobile, which has been trying to build up its portfolio of spectrum rights to compete as a seller of space-based services directly to consumers.

Higher spectrum right prices mean AST will have to cough up more cash as it competes with a Musk-controlled, $800 billion satellite gorilla.

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SpaceX to Offer Insider Shares at Record-Setting $800 Billion Valuation

William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma wrote that the valuation news has positive implications for owners of satellite spectrum rights.

If the reported valuation is ultimately achieved, it would be a mark-to-market moment suggesting that traditional satellite spectrum rights are worth more than the market had previously assumed.

That likely explains some of EchoStar’s outperformance on the day. As a legacy provider of satellite-based television services — such as Dish Network — it is a large owner of that spectrum, and has recently been an opportunistic seller of those assets, including to AT&T and SpaceX.

But the market doesn’t seem to like the implications for AST SpaceMobile, which has been trying to build up its portfolio of spectrum rights to compete as a seller of space-based services directly to consumers.

Higher spectrum right prices mean AST will have to cough up more cash as it competes with a Musk-controlled, $800 billion satellite gorilla.

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markets
Luke Kawa

Marvell sinks after Benchmark cuts company, saying that it lost its Amazon custom chip design business

Over the past two trading days, Marvell Technology has faced vexing questions about its relationship with its top two custom chip hyperscaler customers.

Shares are tumbling, down 9% as of 10:21 a.m. ET.

Late last week, The Information reported that Microsoft, its second-biggest custom chip buyer, was in talks to shift that business from Marvell to Broadcom.

Now, Benchmark analyst Cody Acree thinks that Marvell’s largest custom chip customer, Amazon, has done the same, writing that “we now have a high degree of conviction that the company has lost both Amazon’s Trainium3 and 4 designs to its Taiwanese competitor, Alchip.”

Acree downgraded Marvell to “hold” from “buy,” recommending that investors take profit after its post-earnings bounce.

(Harlan Sur at JPMorgan, for what it’s worth, does not believe this is the case, pointing to Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI as providing key technology that aligns the company with Amazon’s future chip design needs.)

During the conference call that followed earnings, Sur asked Marvell CEO Matt Murphy about its role with Amazon chips going forward.

“What I would say, which is incorporated into our numbers, is that our product transition from where we are today with our lead XPU customer to the next one is baked into all the numbers I gave you. And yes, I got the backlog, and I got the orders, and we got great visibility there,” Murphy said.

Murphy’s answer was not quite definitive, according to Acree, who thinks that Marvell’s revenue forecast is being “driven by expected continued Trainium2 volumes and a Kuiper low-earth orbit engagement and not the successful transition to Trainium3 designs that many on the sell-side have concluded.”

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J. Edward Moreno

Structure Therapeutics posts mid-stage weight-loss pill data in line with Eli Lilly rival

Structure Therapeutics soared in early trading after it reported mid-stage results for its weight-loss pill that were roughly in line with Eli Lilly’s competing product.

The San Francisco-based biotech reported that patients lost roughly 11.3% of their body weight on a lower dose of the pill, aleniglipron, in a mid-stage study. That puts it roughly in line with Lilly’s competing pill, orforglipron, and slightly below Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy.

Both Lilly and Novo’s pills are awaiting regulatory approval and are expected to go to market next year. While the weight-loss numbers were encouraging, Structure’s pill did report higher rates of side effects like nausea and vomiting.

Investors have been closely watching drugmakers’ once-daily pills, which could replace the weekly injections currently on the market. While pills tend to be less effective than shots, they are less expensive to manufacture than prefilled injection pens and are more inviting to squeamish patients.

Warner Brothers To Put Itself Up For Sale

Paramount launches hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share, trying to upend Netflix deal

Paramount is taking its Warner Bros. Discovery purchase effort straight to shareholders.

Max Knoblauch4h

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