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Claude Cowork the newest fuel for an AI-driven de-rating of software stocks

Software stocks are in the wilderness: fears of disintermediation by AI mean it’s difficult to think of them as growth stocks going forward, but they’re not necessarily cheap enough to be considered value stocks, either.

Software companies started off 2026 with a record underperformance of chip stocks.

Things haven’t gotten any better since.

The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF is off more than 4% year to date, with most of the stocks in the fund showing a discouraging trend: just 31% are trading above their 200-day moving average.

The launch of Claude Cowork by Anthropic, which was mostly built using its Claude Code tool, has reignited traders’ desire to get out of software stocks for fear that they’ll be disintermediated by AI tools and agents.

A smattering of formerly high-flying, highly valued software companies have suffered significant valuation compression to converge around enterprise value-to-estimated sales ratios of less than 5.

(Many thanks to modestproposal1, a member of my finance twitter Mount Rushmore, for bringing this to our attention.)

To modify Anna Karenina, each member of this software family is unhappy in a similar way, despite being very different when it comes to top-line growth, margins, market caps, or the customer needs their businesses address. Nevertheless, they’ve all arrived at essentially the same valuation destination by way of a unifying cause.

A growth stock that’s sold off is not a value stock. It’s a stock left to wander the wilderness.

The business prospects of established software firms have taken a hit because of the ease with which AI agents are able to develop software and handle the tasks and processes that served as the core value proposition provided by these companies. Or more simply: if the marginal corporate dollar goes directly to AI, rather than software or labor, it makes sense that investment dollars would follow, too.

“First, the arrival of truly capable AI agents is no longer a 2027 or 2028 story, it’s happening now. The timeline has collapsed. Second, the classic ‘build versus buy’ calculation that has governed enterprise software decisions for decades has been fundamentally altered,” Jordi Visser of 22V Research wrote in a note from January 7. “When a domain expert can build sophisticated technical systems in hours rather than months, the economics of custom development versus off-the-shelf solutions shift dramatically.”

For investors who primarily hold broad market ETFs, this state of affairs is more than a bit annoying: many of the seemingly disrupted are multibillion-dollar market caps in popular benchmark indexes, while the disruptor, in the case of Anthropic, isn’t publicly traded.

Typically, software firms trade at higher valuations than chip companies because they’re asset-light, historically higher-margin, and tend to generate high amounts of reliably recurring revenues, whereas semiconductor companies are subject to the whims of volatile manufacturing cycles. But the sell-off and concurrent de-rating of software stocks leaves the parent index for the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF near a similar valuation as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. That’s a signal about the perceived strength of this trend: investors are increasingly willing to pay up for the products that lay the foundation for the potential disintermediation of software companies, rather than these sticky revenue generators.

(Note: This software fund also counts both AI software beneficiaries like Palantir, D-Wave Quantum, and some crypto treasury companies as some of its most richly valued members, most of which I would struggle to call software stocks.)

While valuations for many software companies are cheap relative to their history, they still trade at a significant premium to the S&P 500 on most valuation metrics (including EV to sales). Therein lies the rub: a growth stock that’s sold off is not a value stock. It’s a stock left to wander the wilderness.

“For those trying to buy software because they are cheap and fade semiconductors, I think people are missing what these engineers have said this year,” Visser added. “The competitive moats around enterprise software businesses begin to look dangerously shallow in this world.”

The bull case for software? Well, for starters: this bear case, and the fact that everyone’s seemingly betting on these negative trends to persist. Positioning data from Morgan Stanley suggests that institutions hate software stocks at the moment.

Even if AI eats software, it’ll have a lot of chewing and digesting to do along the way, since software’s already eaten the world first.

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BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

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Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

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Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

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HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

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