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CrowdStrike sinks after issuing brutal guidance worse than any analyst expected

Shares of cybersecurity software maker CrowdStrike slipped 6% in after-hours trading following the release of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report.

The report itself was strong: CrowdStrike saw a 25% spike in revenue to $1.06 billion for the quarter, subscription revenue climbed 27% to just over $1 billion, and annual recurring revenue rose 23% to $4.24 billion. 

The reason for the sell-off likely has to do with CrowdStrike’s Q1 and full-year guidance, both of which missed expectations by a lot.

Management’s Q1 guidance calls for earnings per share between $0.64 and $0.66; the consensus estimate was $0.96 and the low forecast among analysts polled by Bloomberg was $0.84!

CrowdStrike’s operating expenses rose to nearly $3.1 billion on the year, up from $2.3 billion in the year prior. At a 33% growth rate, expenses are rising faster than revenue, which rose 29% annually.  

The report caps a wild year for CrowdStrike. The company’s shares plunged by more than a third in the weeks following its July software glitch that caused thousands of canceled flights, computer crashes, and hospital system glitches across the world. The so-called “largest IT outage ever” cost Fortune 500 companies more than $5 billion

CrowdStrike reported another $21 million in costs related to the July incident in its report, bringing the annual total to $60 million.

CrowdStrike appears to be on the road to recovery from the outage. By the end of January, its market cap had more than recovered the $30 billion lost amid its botched update. Shares were up around 12% year to date prior to its earnings report, despite having dipped in late Februrary following news that the DOJ and SEC were investigating one of its contracts with the IRS.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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