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Earnings season has been phenomenal, and it’s done nothing for the average stock

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” writes Bespoke Investment Group.

Luke Kawa

Earnings season has been stellar. Traders’ reactions to earnings have been anything but.

Bespoke Investment Group has an excellent series of charts spotlighting just how positive this third-quarter corporate reporting period has been, with exceptional beat rates and guidance hikes across US stocks:

Q3 2025 earnings season stats
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

However, despite 73.5% of companies tracked by Bespoke beating on earnings per share this quarter, the analysts noted that earnings reactions have “been a completely different story.”

In particular, earnings beats have been rewarded with tepid gains, and companies that lowered their outlook were severely punished for a second consecutive season.

“The average stock has not moved on earnings this season, which is on the weaker side of the historical distribution,” they added.

Q3 2025 Earnings Season Stock Reaction
Source: Bespoke Investment Group

If I had to explain why stocks haven’t responded positively to robust results with guidance to match, I’d turn to the recent past.

Ahead of earnings season, September was the third-best month of 2025 for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, trailing only the May and June recovery from the tariff-induced meltdown in markets and subsequent softening of trade tensions. The three-month growth in 12-month forward earnings per share ahead of earnings season (4.9%) was the strongest it’s been since 2021, when corporate profitability was getting a powerful boost as economic reopening was met by consumers flush with excess spending power.

While these are still more the exceptions than the rules, you can point to episodic examples of stocks that were on an absolute tear into Q3 earnings — Palantir and Micron come to mind — that posted beats and raised guidance only to drop in the wake of these results. The combination of how well stocks had done heading into this reporting period and how much forward expectations were getting revised higher provided a very difficult bar to clear, and made it much more punishing for those who came up short.

In other words, a strong Q3 earnings season... was priced in.

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Spectrum-owner Charter Communications is on pace for its worst day ever as broadband numbers and Q1 results disappoint

Cable and broadband company Charter Communications is on pace for its worst-ever trading day on Friday, as investors dump the stock following its Q1 results and forward guidance.

Charter, which owns Spectrum, reported adjusted earnings of $9.17 per share, below Wall Street estimates of $9.96 per share from analysts polled by FactSet. On the company’s earnings call, CFO Jessica Fischer appeared to lower its full-year revenue per user guidance.

“It'll be close either way in terms of whether we end up with net growth,” said Fischer.

The company lost 120,000 internet subscribers in the quarter, deeper than the expected 94,800 and double its loss from the same period last year. That news comes one day after Comcast’s earnings provided a bit of optimism for broadband as a category: the company reported Q1 losses of 65,000, significantly improving from 183,000 losses in the same quarter last year. Comcast is down more than 10%, on pace for its worst day since January 2025.

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Nvidia poised to snap longest run without a record close since the AI boom began

The stock price of the company responsible for the brains of the AI boom is finally showing some brawn again.

Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, is poised to close at a record high for the first time since October 29, 2025, on Friday (if it ends above $207.04).

The AI chip trade is on fire, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slated to deliver its 18th consecutive gain as Intel’s robust results and outlook juice the entire ecosystem. Hyperscalers report earnings next week, and their capex guidance can be thought of as the earnings guidance for Nvidia and other AI suppliers for the quarters to come.

This would end Nvidia’s longest stretch without a record close since the unofficial start of the AI boom (when the chip designer delivered blowout quarterly results in May 2023).

(Sorry if I jinx this!)

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Lilly slips after prescriptions for its weight-loss pill come in below expectations in second week

Eli Lilly fell on Friday after prescription data for its new weight-loss pill, Foundayo, showed that it’s having a significantly slower rollout than its top competitor.

The pill was prescribed about 3,700 times in its second week, according to IQVIA data cited by Deutsche Bank analysts, compared to the roughly 8,000 they were expecting. Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill, which came out in January, hit over 18,000 prescriptions in its second week.

The FDA approved Foundayo on April 1 and shipments began on April 9. Deutsche analysts noted that Lilly’s GLP-1 injections, which currently outsell Novo’s, also had a slower start.

Lilly fell more than 4% after the numbers were released. Novo Nordisk rose more than 5%.

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