Everything you need to know ahead of Palantir’s Q2 earnings

Investors and analysts are expecting great things from Palantir’s Q2 earnings, which the data analytics, AI software, and defense and intelligence contractor reports Monday after the close.

Wall Street analysts expect Palantir will report:

• Sales of $939.3 million, up about 39%, according to FactSet data. (That would be Palantir’s second straight quarter of nearly 40% growth.)

• Adjusted earnings per share of $0.14, up ~54% from Q2 2024.

• About $425 million in commercial sales of software, much aimed at helping private corporations better take advantage of AI — up 38% year over year.

• Roughly $513 million in sales to governments, up 38% compared to last year.

Such sizzling growth rates have helped catalyze Palantir’s remarkable market run over the last few years.

As of Friday, Palantir shares had risen 525% in the prior 12 months. And so far this year, the company’s 104% gain was it enough to make it the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2025. (For what it’s worth, its 340% gain last year also made it No. 1 in 2024. It joined the index in September 2024.)

That run has pushed Palantir into the elite echelon of Corporate America and made shareholders roughly $300 billion wealthier in just the last 12 months. At least on paper.

But it has also pushed Palantir’s valuation — as measured by price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios — to arguably lunatic levels, on par with some of the nosebleediest peaks of the tech stock bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s.

That goes even for companies — like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft — that eventually became some of the greatest profit-producing engines on earth.

If Palantir’s current valuations are taken at face value, they imply remarkable confidence from investors that the company will be able to produce exceptionally fast growth alongside exceptionally fat profit margins for most of the next decade — something exceptionally difficult to do in a supposedly competitive market economy.

That may be why recent reports that Palantir’s largest customer — the US government — was looking to reduce its reliance on key contractors like Palantir whipsawed the stock late last month when the report from The Information hit the tape.

The stock quickly recovered after hitting that air pocket, and clearly Palantir’s prospects are bright.

Late last month, the US Army and Department of Defense announced a 10-year software procurement deal with the company that has a ceiling of $10 billion, potentially making it one of Palantir’s largest deals ever.