The good news behind this week’s bad start

There’s a silver lining in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust’s drop of 4% at the open on Monday, per Bespoke Investment Group.

It’s usually a sign of good things to come.

Analysts at the research firm tallied the last 19 sessions in which the S&P 500 gapped down more than 3% when the market opened. On these days, the S&P 500 increased 1.23% on average throughout the full-day trading session after starting deep in the red.

In all but two sessions where the S&P 500 dropped more than 3 percent at market open, the three month returns were positive. (Bespoke Investment Group)

More encouragingly is that forward returns appear to be very positive, with a high hit rate. The S&P 500 averaged a gain of 4.2 percent and 11.2 percent after one and three months, respectively, from the lower market open of this magnitude. In three months’ time, the S&P 500 saw a positive return in 17 out of the 19 occasions — or nearly 90% of the time.

More Markets

See all Markets

Luke Kawa

8/17/26

Credit markets have a “debt” problem, not a “risk” problem

We’re getting a lot of borrowing, and that borrowing is risk-reducing (for now!)

New York City Architecture And Monuments

Luke Kawa

7/13/26

Meet the newly public, Bezos-backed company that’s recreating the sun and stars

General Fusion CEO Greg Twinney spoke with Sherwood News from the Nasdaq during the stock’s first day of trading.

J. Edward Moreno7/7/26

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

Luke Kawa

7/2/26

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

Floridians Seek Employment Opportunities At Job Fair In Sunrise

Luke Kawa

7/1/26

Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC and Chartr Limited produce fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and are fully owned subsidiaries of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Money, LLC, Robinhood U.K. Ltd, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Robinhood Gold, LLC, Robinhood Asset Management, LLC, Robinhood Credit, Inc., Robinhood Ventures DE, LLC and, where applicable, its managed investment vehicles.