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Gas jumps $0.60 in under two weeks, hitting $3.60 as the market braces for possible $4 a gallon

Spring is just around the corner and gas prices just keep getting higher.

The national average for a gallon of regular gas is currently at $3.598, according to the American Automobile Association, jumping nearly $0.35 since last week.

The most recent prices are similar to the spring of 2024, while this is the first time it has gone above the $3.50 threshold since July 29, 2024.

While gas prices tend to increase during the warmer months, crude oil prices have played a major part in what consumers have been paying, at times exceeding $100 per barrel in the past few days.

To offset the rising energy costs due to the conflict in the Middle East, the US Department of Energy announced it would release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over the next four months as part of the larger effort to release 400 million oil barrels.

Prediction markets are pricing in an implied 62% chance that the price of gas exceeds $4.00 by the end of the month. Things may get even more expensive, though; markets are pricing in roughly even chances that gas finishes above $4.10, and even a 22% chance gasoline averages $4.50 per gallon by March 31.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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While gas prices tend to increase during the warmer months, crude oil prices have played a major part in what consumers have been paying, at times exceeding $100 per barrel in the past few days.

To offset the rising energy costs due to the conflict in the Middle East, the US Department of Energy announced it would release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over the next four months as part of the larger effort to release 400 million oil barrels.

Prediction markets are pricing in an implied 62% chance that the price of gas exceeds $4.00 by the end of the month. Things may get even more expensive, though; markets are pricing in roughly even chances that gas finishes above $4.10, and even a 22% chance gasoline averages $4.50 per gallon by March 31.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Ford raises its full-year guidance, receives $1.3 billion tariff refund

Ford reported its first-quarter results after markets closed on Wednesday. The automaker’s shares climbed roughly 7% in after-hours trading on the news.

For Q1, Ford reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $0.66 per share, compared to the $0.18 per share expected by Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet. The figure includes Ford’s tariff reimbursement.

  • $43.25 in total revenue, vs. the $42.66 billion consensus forecast. Automotive revenue came in at $39.8 billion, compared to estimates of $38.9 billion.

  • A $1.3 billion tariff refund.

Ford boosted its full-year guidance for adjusted earnings before interest and taxes to between $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, up from between $8 billion and $10 billion.

Late last year, Ford announced it would take $19.5 billion in charges — one of the largest write-downs ever — relating mostly to its EV business. Of those charges, $7 billion will be spread across this year and next, the company said.

Earlier this month, Ford recorded an 8.8% drop in Q1 sales from the same period last year, a similar result to Detroit rival GM, which posted a 9.7% sales drop.

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Microsoft beats on revenue and earnings in Q3, but only meets expectations for cloud growth

Microsoft shares dipped after the company reported strong Q3 earnings postmarket Wednesday, posting ​​sales of $82.9 billion for the quarter, beating FactSet analyst estimates of $81.4 billion. Earnings per share were $4.27, handily beating estimates of $4.05. 

In a closely watched number, Microsoft’s Azure cloud business increased 40% year on year, just above the 39.7% estimated. The metric technically beat expectations, but may not be the beat investors were looking for.

Total capital expenditure for the quarter was $31.9 billion, up 49% year on year, above estimates of $27.5 billion and down from Q2’s $37.5 billion.

One thing investors were eager to find out: how is the company doing in its effort to fulfill the billions in backlogged commercial bookings? Last quarter, the company reported a staggering $625 billion in remaining performance obligations, and 45% of that was for just one customer — OpenAI.

For the third quarter, Microsoft reported a backlog of $627 billion, up 99% year on year. The company said the RPO increase was 26% — in line with “historical seasonality” — when excluding OpenAI.

Breaking down the results by the company’s business lines:

  • ☁️ 🤖 Intelligent Cloud (Azure, server products): $34.7 billion in revenue, up 30% year on year.

  • 📝 📊 Productivity and Business Processes (Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics): $35 billion in revenue, up 17% year on year.

  • 💻 🎮 More Personal Computing (Windows, Xbox, Bing): $13.2 billion in revenue, down 1% year on year.

Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said in the earnings release:

“We delivered results that exceeded expectations across revenue, operating income, and earnings per share, reflecting strong execution and growing demand for the Microsoft Cloud.”

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.