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US Trump Trade Migrant detentions
(Herika Martinez/AFP via Getty Images)

Trump 2.0’s biggest market winner is a federal immigration contractor

Revenues from ICE accounted for nearly half of Geo Group’s sales in 2023, and the outlook for that business is improving in light of the election results.

GEO Group was the single biggest winner in the US stock market — among companies of any size — on Wednesday, after Donald Trump prevailed in his bid to return to the White House. Oft described with the shorthand “private prison company,” Geo Group generates a substantial portion of sales through its immigration, detention, processing, and deportation contracting business.

The company also just so happened to report lackluster earnings this morning. It posted top- and bottom-line results that failed to impress, relative to Wall Street forecasts, but this had little impact on its shares.

That’s because today’s numbers are largely beside the point when it comes to explaining the 40% jump the shares saw Wednesday.

Investors are clearly making a bet that Trump 2.0 will result in a surge of federal dollars toward Geo Group, which offers investors a strangely remarkable level of exposure to profiting from the US immigration and border-enforcement infrastructure.

Some 72% of revenue for the company, based in Boca Raton, Florida, came from its Secure Services division, which at the end of last year oversaw some 50 detention and residential facilities with about 65,000 beds, including centers run on behalf of the US Marshals Service and the US Immigration & Customs Enforcement. In 2023, contract revenues from Immigration & Customs Enforcement accounted for 43% of the company’s total top line.

The company also operates an Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment that contracts with the feds to help operate the government’s Intensive Supervision Appearance Program, or ISAP, on behalf of ICE. That’s a program that basically keeps track of people as they undergo the immigration review process. Geo’s transportation division operates a fleet of buses and employs hundreds of security officers to oversee deportations on behalf of the federal government.

The Trump administration’s plans for concrete changes to the US immigration system are not yet clear. But as the AP reports, attitudes toward immigration — along with inflation — were the key catalysts behind his decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, suggesting expectations are high for the incoming administration to act on those issues.

So, business is likely to pick up at Geo.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

markets
Jake Lahut

Comcast shares rise on news of NBCUniversal spinoff deal

Comcast rose on the news that the telecom behemoth is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable portfolio. 

Comcast initially jumped up to 17% in early trading, with the deal leaving management to focus on its core verticals of cable, wireless, and business services. 

NBCUniversal and Sky will form a new publicly traded company, similar to Versant Media, the holding company of CNBC and MS NOW that Comcast officially spun off in January. Bravo, one of the most lucrative properties that remained at Comcast, will remain part of NBCUniversal in the deal. The Universal theme parks and studios will also come with the new spinoff entity, along with Telemundo and Peacock.

Mike Cavanagh, the co-CEO of Comcast, will become the CEO for NBCUniversal, according to CNBC. 

The spinoff will be completed in about a year, according to a Comcast company statement. Its shareholders will also own shares in NBCUniversal, according to the same statement.

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