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CAN’T COPE WITH THE CAPE

Goldman Sachs is not feeling great about the long-term prospects of US stocks

One valuation measure in particular, the CAPE, is anchoring Goldman’s models toward lower future returns.

David Crowther

It has been a very good year, and indeed a very good decade, to be invested in the US stock market. The S&P 500 Index is up 23% in the year-to-date, and it’s more than tripled in the last 10 years. But Goldman Sachs doesn’t think the next 10 will be anything nearly as good, with the firm’s chief US equity strategist, David Kostin, writing in a note out Friday:

We estimate the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years...

Thats a pretty gloomy assessment of the prospects of the American stock market, and it reflects the fact that financial journalists have had to trot out the headline “stocks hit record highs” 47 times this year — most recently on Friday.

So, just how negative is a forecast for an annualized nominal total return of 3%?

Well, if accurate, it means that the next decade will be in the bottom 10% of all stock-market periods analyzed from the last 94 years (specifically ranking at the 7th percentile, according to Goldman’s researchers). Think about all of the movies in existence, and now imagine watching one that was ranked in the bottom 7%. That’s not a fun movie.

Why are the prospects for future returns so low?

At the heart of the matter is the market’s valuation. Goldman’s researchers get some help from Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, who created the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE). A simple price-to-earnings ratio compares how much one share costs with how much it earns. A share that costs $100 and earns $5 a year has a P/E of 20x. Its a rough but simple way to compare valuations.

Shiller took that simple metric and... made it more complicated (but also maybe more useful) by looking at 10 years of earnings (adjusted for inflation), rather than just one year, which helps to smooth things out and often means it captures a period of recession. Since 1940, the CAPE has averaged about 22x. So, where are we today?

CAPE
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Plugging the latest close of the S&P 500 into a brilliant spreadsheet from Robert Shiller gives us: 40x!

Put simply, stocks are expensive, and that typically — but not always — leads to lower future returns. Maybe this time will be different!

Note: Goldman Sachs’ model is also heavily impacted by a “market concentration” variable, which is also currently at its 99th percentile. Without that, the researchers note that their forecast would be 4 percentage points higher.

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Broadcom jumps after locking down Google as a customer for future generations of TPUs

Shares of Broadcom rose more than 3% in postmarket trading on Monday after its most important customer doubled down on the custom chip specialist’s ability to produce its most valuable commodity.

In a filing, Broadcom said that it entered into a long-term agreement with Google to supply future generations of TPUs (custom AI accelerator chips) as well as a supply assurance agreement for networking and other equipment “through up to 2031.”

Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon indicated that Broadcom’s investor relations team told him that Google’s long-term agreement “has revenue commitments that go along with it through the timeline.”

Gemini 3 launched to rave reviews in November. The model was trained on TPUs co-developed by Broadcom and Google.

The same Monday filing showed that Broadcom, Google, and Anthropic expanded a partnership that will see the Claude developer access 3.5 gigawatts of AI compute capacity beginning in 2027, powered by the TPUs co-designed by the custom chip specialist and the search giant.

Bernstein’s Rasgon added that Broadcom’s team suggested these 3.5 gigawatts are “only part of a larger partnership over time.” He thinks Broadcom’s fiscal year 2027 guidance for AI revenues of $100 billion “is looking increasingly light” thanks to this news.

For what it’s worth, the enhanced pact with Anthropic hinges upon the firm’s ability to afford AI compute. But based on the insane trajectory of its run-rate revenue that may not be a big hurdle to clear.

“Broadcom’s expanded agreements with Google and Anthropic add rare multi-year visibility, reinforcing a $40-$50 billion AI revenue opportunity tied to Anthropic’s 3.5 gigawatt deployment starting in 2027, while building on the previously disclosed 1GW ($10 billion) starting in 2H,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada.

markets

Health insurers surge after Medicare agrees to pay 2.48% more in 2027, a bigger-than-expected boost

Health insurance stocks are surging after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said it plans to boost Medicare Advantage and Part D payments by 2.48% in calendar year 2027.

The likes of CVS, Humana, UnitedHealth, Molina Healthcare, Oscar Health, and Elevance Health are gaining in postmarket trading.

Wall Street analysts had anticipated that rates for 2027 would go up between roughly 1% and 1.5%.

These stocks had gotten crushed in late January when the Trump administration proposed relatively flat federal payment rates.

Insurance companies that provide government-sponsored plans, like Medicare Advantage, faced headwinds from higher-than-expected costs in 2025.

markets

Iran war winners Dow, LyondellBasell downgraded by Bank of America

Dow, Inc. and LyondellBasell — two petrochemicals stocks that surged as markets priced in shortages due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — should decline as investors focus on the long-term outlook for normalized petrochemical prices once the war resolves, Bank of America analysts wrote in a note downgrading the two stocks Monday.

BofA moved its rating on the shares from “neutral” to “underperform,” writing:

“Over time, as chemical markets normalize, we expect 1) investor focus to shiſt back to ‘normal’ or ‘sustainable’ earnings profiles and 2) the conflict to resolve without material asset rationalization, both of which likely bias shares lower over the next twelve months.”

Analysts also lowered their stance on another petrochemicals and building materials stock, Westlake, to “neutral” from “buy.”

While cutting those ratings, BofA actually raised its more near-term price targets for the shares. It upped LyondellBasell to $68 from $55, and Dow to $35 from $31.

But those price targets still imply declines of more than 10% compared to where both shares were trading late Monday morning. Both stocks are up roughly 30% since the start of the Iran war.

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