Markets
General Views Of New York
A fire engine works its way up Eighth Avenue (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Mangling of the Magnificent

Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm on Nvidia and the Magnificent 7

Nasdaq 100 rallies are to be sold, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Luke Kawa

Ever since DeepSeek roiled markets, the AI trade vibes have oscillated between “it’s so over” and “we’re so back.”

Put Goldman Sachs firmly in the former camp amid another dreadful session in which Nvidia is down as much as 7%.

In a flurry of notes released late last week and over the weekend, strategists at the bank basically said that the party’s over for the megacap US tech trade. To sum up their case:

  • When a stock fails to respond to good news, that’s bad news.

  • The earnings growth that made the Magnificent 7 so magnificent isn’t as magnificent any more.

  • Hedge funds are dumping the cohort and other AI-linked positions.

  • Popular stocks could see a lot more of a valuation reset lower.

The strategists, in their own words:

Paolo Schiavone:

The NVDA print was a clearing event — the reality is that from here the AI theme is for sale. In AI, investors are worried about 2026 growth not 25. Nasdaq 100 rallies will be used as liquidity events.”

Tony Pasquariello:

We all knew it was coming, but the immense earning premium that you had earned in US mega cap tech vs everything else is narrowing. DeepSeek triggered a shift in the flow [of] capital away from the US plays. In a few ways, NVDA earnings are an illustration of what’s going on here: they didn’t pull a hamstring as the cyclical impulse to spend on compute is still clearly intact, but price action told a certain story (i.e. -$320 billion of market cap in one day). Bigger picture, the stock has been range bound for the past eight months — coming off a 24,000% cumulative return in the prior ten years, if nothing else that’s anti-climactic.”

John Flood:

February’s notional de-grossing in US TMT [technology, media, and telecom] is tracking to be the second largest on our record (behind January 2021 amid the meme stocks rally). Net exposure to Mag7 names has continued to fall and is now at the lowest level since April 2023, and aggregate long-short ratio across our US TMT AI basket constituents remains well below the highs seen around the middle of last year.”

Goldman PB
Source: Goldman Sachs

Mark Wilson:

To my starting comment about price action sometimes revealing more than fundamentals — these 3 head check’ charts of the largest index constituents give a reasonable frame of reference for price possibilities from here: Nvidia, Apple & Amazon’s EV to 12-month trailing sales multiple: it’s not a uniform observation (i.e. AMZN has no dramatically re-rated), but its not unreasonable to suggest some very large stocks may consolidate after the moves they’ve had, in price & in multiple re-rating.”

More Markets

See all Markets
markets

Palantir pops as its Maven AI targeting system made “official program” for DOD

Palantir jumped Monday following reports that the US military is making official its long-term commitment to buying and using Palantir’s AI-powered data analysis and targeting program.

Reuters’ David Jeans reported over the weekend:

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve ​Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve ​Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

markets

Lawmakers to introduce bill banning sports contracts on prediction markets: WSJ

Sports-betting stocks rose after The Wall Street Journal reported that a bipartisan pair of lawmakers are seeking to ban Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated companies from offering sports-related contracts on prediction markets.

Reportedly sponsored by Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and John Curtis, R-Utah, the bill would prevent companies like Kalshi or Polymarket’s US arm from posting event contracts related to the outcome of sporting events, a market that accounts for a sizable chunk of their volumes.

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

markets

Synopsys rises on WSJ report of Elliott’s new multibillion-dollar stake

Software company Synopsys is up 3% in premarket trading on Monday after The Wall Street Journal reported that Elliott Investment Management, a well-known activist fund, has taken a multibillion-dollar stake in the company.

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

Elliott Managing Partner Jesse Cohn told the WSJ that “Synopsys is essential to the global chip industry,” and that it is “uniquely positioned to benefit” as the AI industry continues to require more capital, more complex chips, and therefore, more software to design them.

The firm’s investment is predicated on a “clear opportunity for Synopsys’ financial performance to more fully reflect the value it delivers.” While memory stocks like Micron have been on a tear recently, Synopsys has dropped 8% over the past year, lagging behind its biggest rival, Cadence Design Systems, which is up 6% in the same period.

Citing people familiar with the investment in Synopsys, the Journal reports that Elliott sees room for the company to boost sales and improve its margins to be more in line with that of Cadence. In its fiscal year 2025, Cadence notched an adjusted operating margin of nearly 45%, while Synopsys eked out only 37%.

Latest Stories

Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.