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Mangling of the Magnificent

Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm on Nvidia and the Magnificent 7

Nasdaq 100 rallies are to be sold, according to strategists at Goldman Sachs.

Luke Kawa
3/3/25 3:23PM

Ever since DeepSeek roiled markets, the AI trade vibes have oscillated between “it’s so over” and “we’re so back.”

Put Goldman Sachs firmly in the former camp amid another dreadful session in which Nvidia is down as much as 7%.

In a flurry of notes released late last week and over the weekend, strategists at the bank basically said that the party’s over for the megacap US tech trade. To sum up their case:

  • When a stock fails to respond to good news, that’s bad news.

  • The earnings growth that made the Magnificent 7 so magnificent isn’t as magnificent any more.

  • Hedge funds are dumping the cohort and other AI-linked positions.

  • Popular stocks could see a lot more of a valuation reset lower.

The strategists, in their own words:

Paolo Schiavone:

The NVDA print was a clearing event — the reality is that from here the AI theme is for sale. In AI, investors are worried about 2026 growth not 25. Nasdaq 100 rallies will be used as liquidity events.”

Tony Pasquariello:

We all knew it was coming, but the immense earning premium that you had earned in US mega cap tech vs everything else is narrowing. DeepSeek triggered a shift in the flow [of] capital away from the US plays. In a few ways, NVDA earnings are an illustration of what’s going on here: they didn’t pull a hamstring as the cyclical impulse to spend on compute is still clearly intact, but price action told a certain story (i.e. -$320 billion of market cap in one day). Bigger picture, the stock has been range bound for the past eight months — coming off a 24,000% cumulative return in the prior ten years, if nothing else that’s anti-climactic.”

John Flood:

February’s notional de-grossing in US TMT [technology, media, and telecom] is tracking to be the second largest on our record (behind January 2021 amid the meme stocks rally). Net exposure to Mag7 names has continued to fall and is now at the lowest level since April 2023, and aggregate long-short ratio across our US TMT AI basket constituents remains well below the highs seen around the middle of last year.”

Goldman PB
Source: Goldman Sachs

Mark Wilson:

To my starting comment about price action sometimes revealing more than fundamentals — these 3 head check’ charts of the largest index constituents give a reasonable frame of reference for price possibilities from here: Nvidia, Apple & Amazon’s EV to 12-month trailing sales multiple: it’s not a uniform observation (i.e. AMZN has no dramatically re-rated), but its not unreasonable to suggest some very large stocks may consolidate after the moves they’ve had, in price & in multiple re-rating.”

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Investors pour into Joby and Archer after White House announces air taxi pilot program participation

On Friday, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the creation of a new FAA pilot program aimed at speeding up the development of “advanced air mobility” vehicles, including electric air taxis made by Joby Aviation and Archer Aviation.

Joby shares climbed more than 5% in premarket trading on Monday, after closing up 2% on Friday. Archer shares rose 7% in the premarket, following a 3% jump. Both companies announced their plans to participate in the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program (eIPP), which the FAA says will include at least five projects and run for three years.

Both companies have been burning cash as they work toward FAA certification to kick off their commercial air taxi businesses in the US. Joby last month said it’s 70% complete with the fourth stage of its five-stage certification process.

The eIPP was first hinted at in President Trump’s June executive order, aimed at speeding up adoption of the electric vertical takeoff aircraft.

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IonQ rises on wave of Wall Street love following its Analyst Day event

IONQ’s Analyst Day event at the New York Stock Exchange on Friday was a major catalyst for the quantum computing space.

Its stock spiked 18% on the final session of last week, leading a charge that saw peers Rigetti Computing up 14%, D-Wave Quantum gain 7.5%, and Quantum Computing rise 7%.

Analysts obviously liked what they heard. Shares are up again in early trading on Monday, with IonQ’s price target hiked:

  • to $80 from $60 by Needham,

  • to $75 from $61 by B Riley Securities, and

  • to $60 from $45 by Cantor Fitzgerald.

“IonQ is the only company in the industry to have quantum computing, quantum networking and quantum security under one roof,” wrote Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton, who has a “buy” rating on the shares. “Management highlighted the US Department of War recently stated ‘Cryptographically relevant quantum computers may be possible in as soon as three years.’ This fact is driving growing interest in the company’s QKD [quantum key distribution] systems.”

The company also announced on Friday that it received regulatory approval for its purchase of British startup Oxford Ionics and expects the deal to close shortly.

“We believe Oxford Ionic’s Electronic Qubit Control is a highly differentiated technology that not only enables significantly greater scalability but also enables higher fidelity and faster gate speeds,” Bolton added.

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Tesla jumps after Elon Musk discloses buying 2.57 million shares, worth more than $1 billion

Tesla soared in early trading on Monday after CEO Elon Musk disclosed a purchase of 2.57 million shares in the company, according to a new SEC filing.

Per the filing, the “Elon Musk Revocable Trust,” for which the Tesla and SpaceX chief is the trustee, reported acquiring 2.57 million shares, taking its total ownership to 413.36 million shares as of September 12, 2025. The block of equity was bought at prices ranging from $371.38 to $396.54.

Investors are interpreting Musks latest purchase — his first significant one since February 2020 — as a vote of confidence in the company. Tesla shares are now trading above their December 31 closing price, making the stock positive for the year.

Earlier this month, the board of directors proposed an eye-watering pay package that could award the tech billionaire up to $1 trillion, assuming that very ambitious market cap and fundamental milestones are met.

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Hims & Hers falls after FDA commissioner says its Super Bowl ad breached regulations

Hims & Hers is falling in premarket trading after its Super Bowl ad from February was singled out as the “most overt” example of “brazen” marketing tactics among online pharmacies by FDA Commissioner Marty Makary.

The claim, made in an opinion piece written by Makary and published in the JAMA Network on Friday, highlighted the agency’s stricter enforcement policies on pharmaceutical advertisements.

“Equally brazen, online pharmacies are advertising drugs with only upsides mentioned, contributing to America’s culture of overreliance on pharmaceuticals for health,” Makary wrote. “This breach of FDA regulation was most overt earlier this year when Hims & Hers ran a Super Bowl ad highlighting the benefits of glucagon-like peptide-1 drugs without any mention of side effects or disclaimers.”

Hims’ Super Bowl ad touted its direct-to-consumer weight-loss medications as “life-changing,” “affordable,” and “doctor-trusted,” billing its approach as “the future of healthcare.”

Google searches for the company spiked after the ad appeared during the big game.

Last week, President Donald Trump issued an executive order directing the Secretary of Health and Human Services to crack down on TV drug ads. It was initially unclear whether that order applied to telehealth companies.

Compounded drugs aren’t subject to the same regulatory burdens over their advertisements as branded, FDA-approved drugs made by pharmaceutical companies. For example, Hims can advertise generic Prozac for climax control (an off-label use) while the company that made the drug, Eli Lilly, cannot.

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