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Mortgage refinancing wave
(Mario Tama/Getty Images)

The housing market is finally responding to lower interest rates

Less money spent on interest payments frees up more cash for households to spend everywhere else.

The sharp drop in mortgage rates over the last six months — when the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dove from more than 7% to nearly 6% — is finally generating a reaction. Refinancing activity has picked up sharply, with the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly refinancing index rising to its highest level since early 2022.

By way of background, this is exactly how the Fed’s monetary policy shift to cutting rates is supposed to feed through to the economy.

As the Fed signaled it would cut rates, long term government bond yields dropped, pulling mortgage rates down too.

When homeowners refinance, this typically reduces the amount of money they pay for housing, putting additional cash in their pocket to be spent elsewhere.

And depending on how far mortgage rates fall, this helpful economic trend could continue for a while, offering a much-needed tailwind for the economy.

Of course, if mortgage rates fall too low, that could be an unwelcome signal that something has gone pretty wrong in the US job market.

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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