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Luke Kawa

How Claude Code “is the ChatGPT moment repeated” — and why that’s awful news for software stocks

The relentless slide in software stocks continues, with the iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF trading to the downside and lagging the market on Friday.

The growing adoption of Claude Code, and more recently, the launch of Claude Cowork by Anthropic, has been an attention-grabbing moment as to the power of AI agents and how they can be housed and operated solely under one highly integrated user interface.

To say that software stocks have fallen out of favor would be an understatement, as having this much industry-specific market pain is incredibly rare. Based on data going back to 2001, if IGV has fallen at least 5% over the past month, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is typically also down between 5% to 6% over the same period. Less than 3% of the time does SPY rise at least 1% while software stocks have gotten slammed — 28 instances in total, going back to August 2001 — and three of those are the past three sessions. Their valuation compression has also been intense.

Doug O’Laughlin, president of SemiAnalysis, authored a thought-provoking piece on just how momentous this recent technological progress is, along with his views on how AI agents will displace software and what disrupted companies can do adapt. A couple excerpts:

“Assuming it improves, has harnesses, and can continue to scale large context windows and only become marginally more intelligent, I believe this is enough to really take us to the next state of AI. I cannot stress enough that Claude Code is the ChatGPT moment repeated. You must try it to understand.

One day, the successor to Claude Code will make a superhuman interface available to everyone. And if Tokens were TCP/IP, Claude Code is the first genuine website built in the age of AI. And this is going to hurt a large part of the software industry.”

“I believe that all software must leave information work as soon as possible. I believe that the future role of software will not have much ‘information processing’, i.e., analysis. Claude Code or Agent-Next will be doing the information synthesis, the GUI, and the workflow. That will be ephemeral and generated for the use at hand. Anyone should be able to access the information they want in the format they want and reference the underlying data.

What I’m trying to say is that the traditional differentiation metrics will change. Faster workflows, better UIs, and smoother integrations will all become worthless, while persistent information, a la an API, will become extremely valuable.”

Claude Cowork the newest fuel for an AI-driven de-rating of software stocks

The growing adoption of Claude Code, and more recently, the launch of Claude Cowork by Anthropic, has been an attention-grabbing moment as to the power of AI agents and how they can be housed and operated solely under one highly integrated user interface.

To say that software stocks have fallen out of favor would be an understatement, as having this much industry-specific market pain is incredibly rare. Based on data going back to 2001, if IGV has fallen at least 5% over the past month, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is typically also down between 5% to 6% over the same period. Less than 3% of the time does SPY rise at least 1% while software stocks have gotten slammed — 28 instances in total, going back to August 2001 — and three of those are the past three sessions. Their valuation compression has also been intense.

Doug O’Laughlin, president of SemiAnalysis, authored a thought-provoking piece on just how momentous this recent technological progress is, along with his views on how AI agents will displace software and what disrupted companies can do adapt. A couple excerpts:

“Assuming it improves, has harnesses, and can continue to scale large context windows and only become marginally more intelligent, I believe this is enough to really take us to the next state of AI. I cannot stress enough that Claude Code is the ChatGPT moment repeated. You must try it to understand.

One day, the successor to Claude Code will make a superhuman interface available to everyone. And if Tokens were TCP/IP, Claude Code is the first genuine website built in the age of AI. And this is going to hurt a large part of the software industry.”

“I believe that all software must leave information work as soon as possible. I believe that the future role of software will not have much ‘information processing’, i.e., analysis. Claude Code or Agent-Next will be doing the information synthesis, the GUI, and the workflow. That will be ephemeral and generated for the use at hand. Anyone should be able to access the information they want in the format they want and reference the underlying data.

What I’m trying to say is that the traditional differentiation metrics will change. Faster workflows, better UIs, and smoother integrations will all become worthless, while persistent information, a la an API, will become extremely valuable.”

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Helena Cheng

Victoria’s Secret jumps after posting surging sales and raising full-year outlook

Victoria’s Secret shares are up more than 40% in early trading after the apparel retailer delivered a strong Q1 earnings beat and substantially lifted its full-year guidance. It was a welcome win for the company as it officially changed its stock ticker symbol to VSXY from VSCO on the New York Stock Exchange.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.60 (compared to analyst estimates of $0.30).

  • Net sales of $1.56 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase (estimate: $1.52 billion).

  • Adjusted operating income of $80 million (estimate: $42 million).

Comparable sales rose 13% during the quarter, beating the estimated 12%. The company said double-digit growth was recorded across its Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Beauty brands, as well as across stores and direct and international channels.

Buoyed by the strong momentum, management raised the retailer’s full-year guidance. Victoria’s Secret now projects full-year net sales to reach between $7.03 billion and $7.13 billion, up from a previous cap of $6.95 billion. Adjusted operating income is now anticipated to land between $550 million and $580 million, a jump from the previously projected range of $430 million to $460 million.

“Our customer responded strongly to our product innovation, emotionally resonant storytelling, and distinct brand projection, driving double-digit growth in new customer acquisition, increased regular-price selling, and broad-based strength across categories, channels, and geographies,” CEO Hillary Super said in a statement. “These results reflect the progress we are making against our Path to Potential strategy as we continue to strengthen customer connection, build brand heat, and drive sustainable long-term growth.”

The company’s “Path to Potential” transformation strategy was launched to right-track the business after a multiyear stretch of declining sales and cultural scrutiny. The changed ticker also signals a fresh corporate chapter under Super, who is steering the retailer through a major brand turnaround.

markets
Helena Cheng

Dollar General posts Q1 EPS beat and boosts guidance, though revenue misses slightly

Dollar General reported mixed first-quarter results, pairing an earnings beat and a boosted full-year profit forecast with a slight revenue miss.

Key numbers:

  • EPS of $2 (compared to analyst estimates of $1.90).

  • Revenue of $10.79 billion (estimate: $10.83 billion).

  • Same-store sales growth of 2% year over year.

Shares of the company fell 2.1% in early trading, reversing the gains they had made premarket.

Buoyed by the bottom-line strength, Dollar General also raised its fiscal 2026 profit outlook, now forecasting full-year earnings per share to land between $7.20 and $7.45, up from its previous guidance of $7.10 to $7.35. Meanwhile, management reiterated its full-year same-store sales growth target of 2.2% to 2.7%.

Management noted that the retailer’s increase in profit was boosted by contributions from new stores and growth in same-store sales, partially offset by the impact of store closures.

Heightened economic uncertainty, ongoing US import tariffs, and rising gas prices tied to the Iran war could also be weighing on everyday households’ purchasing decisions, causing them to pull back on spending in general or trade down to more affordable basic essentials.

“Our topline results were highlighted by positive customer traffic and balanced category growth,” Todd Vasos, Dollar General’s CEO, said in the press release. “Looking ahead, we believe the essential nature of our offering and our expansive footprint position us well to navigate the current macroeconomic environment.”

Shares of Dollar General are down more than 20% year to date.

David Crowther
7h
Alphabet’s $80 billion equity raise is a signal that the AI party can continue

And the next round is on Google.

Dancing people in a disco club to the music
markets
J. Edward Moreno

Marvell soars after Nvidia CEO says it will be the “next trillion-dollar company”

Marvell Technology surged after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the chipmaker, which his company has a stake in, ⁠the next “trillion-dollar company.”

Huang made the comments at the Computex ​expo in Taipei on ‌Tuesday. It’s not the first vote of confidence for Marvell from the world’s most valuable company: Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with Marvell in March, saying that it has invested $2 billion in the company.

Marvell’s market capitalization as of Monday’s close was around $192 billion, meaning that Huang’s prediction would hinge on a more than 420% rally. Huang said computing is becoming increasingly disaggregated and distributed, creating a need for advanced connectivity, which is what Marvell specializes in.

“That’s the reason why Marvell is so essential,” Huang said, standing onstage next to Marvell CEO Matt Murphy. “That’s why you’re going to be the next trillion-dollar company.”

The stock rose 23% in premarket trading on Tuesday and is up more than 145% since the start of the year.

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Paige Oamek

HP Enterprise skyrockets on strong Q2 earnings and full-year guidance boost

HP Enterprise shares soared Monday afternoon following the enterprise software company’s Q2 earnings report, which detailed a blockbuster quarter.

The stock was up more than 30% — not a typo — after-hours.

Here are the numbers for Q2:

  • Revenue of $10.7 billion (compared to the analyst estimate of $9.78 billion, per FactSet).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.79 (estimate: $0.53).

The company raised its guidance for the full fiscal year, saying it sees revenue growth of 29% to 33%, compared with its previous guidance for 17% to 22%. It also guided for adjusted EPS of $3.35 to $3.45 for the full year, up from the $2.30 to $2.50 it had estimated in its Q1 earnings release.

For its early fiscal 2027 guidance, HPE said it expects revenue to grow 8% to 12%, compared with analysts’ expectations for 5.5% growth. It also said it expects adjusted EPS growth of 12% to 16%, compared to analysts’ forecasts of a 13.5% rise.

Unlike HP, which makes consumer products like PCs and printers, HP Enterprise is primed to support the AI boom — specializing in cloud servers, data storage systems, and AI infrastructure. HPE has gained 90% since January.

Last week, competitor Dell saw a similarly rosy earnings report, which boosted its stock nearly 40%.

On Monday at Computex, HPE announced a new project with Nvidia: a new server powered by the semiconductor company. “Agentic AI has arrived, and it needs a new CPU,” said Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. According to the companies, the plan is to support and optimize the New York Stock Exchange’s day-to-day infrastructure with “industry leading agentic AI CPU performance, memory bandwidth and low latency.”

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