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US elections 2024 - Berlin
Berlin - November 6, 2024: Two guests dress up between two cardboard figures of candidates Kamala Harris (l) and Donald Trump (r) at the US Presidential Election Night 2024 at the Baden-Württemberg State Representation (Carsten Koall/Getty Images)
Indecision 2024

How Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citi, and Bank of America are trading the US election

The expected knee-jerk reactions across asset classes and a view on whatever we see Wednesday in markets will persist.

Luke Kawa

Here’s a summary of how some of the biggest institutions on Wall Street expect markets to react to different US election outcomes across different asset classes, as well as some broader thoughts on what will work, what won’t, and for how long:

The views of John Flood, head of Americas equities sales trading at Goldman Sachs, from an email to clients on Tuesday:

A November 4 note from JPMorgan, drawing on work from their FX and fixed-income strategy teams:

JPMorgan FX/rates US election views
Source: JPMorgan

An October 25 note from Citi’s global-asset allocation team:

Citi market implications of US election
Source: Citi Research

A November 3 note from Bank of America’s equity and quant strategy team:

“We believe a big knee-jerk reaction (2%+) should be faded.”

However, “Interestingly, post-election price momentum typically continues into following weeks. The direction of two-week returns following the day after an election was the same as the direction of the day after the election 100% of the time during the prior seven elections (since 1996) and 79% of the time since 1928.”

Price momentum around the election
Source: Bank of America

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Retail traders are “skipping the dip” this time

Here’s one noteworthy feature of the recent market downturn that has the S&P 500 poised for its worst week since reciprocal tariffs were announced in early April: retail traders seemingly aren’t eager to buy the weakness in single stocks the way they used to be.

JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain has flagged that retail traders instead appear to be “skipping the dip.”

“In contrast to the behavior observed during the post-Liberation Day selloff, retail investors did not seize the opportunity to buy-the-dip on Tuesday, with a few exceptions such as META,” he wrote of the day where the benchmark US stock index fell 1.2%. “In fact, they scaled back their ETF purchases and turned net sellers in single stocks.”

Then on Thursday, when the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, Jain projected that retail traders sold $261 million in single stocks. Through noon ET on Friday, his daily outflow estimate stands at $851 million.

With that intel, it’s little wonder why the carnage this week has been particularly intense in more speculative single stocks that had been favored by the retail community, including IREN, IonQ, Rigetti, Cipher Mining, Bloom Energy, and Oklo.

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Archer Aviation plunges on $650 million share sale following its third-quarter results

Air taxi maker Archer Aviation is deep in the red on Friday morning after reporting its third-quarter results after the bell Thursday. The stock is down more than 12%.

Investors don’t appear to be thrilled about the company’s $650 million direct stock offering, announced alongside its results.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

The move marks at least the third major equity raise, and dilution, for Archer this year. The company raised $300 million from a new stock sale in February, and sold $850 million worth of shares in June.

On Archer’s earnings call Thursday, interim CFO Priya Gupta said the company came to the decision after “substantial inbound interest.” According to Gupta, the company has heard from government and commercial partners that liquidity is a “key driver to their decisions of who to partner with.” With its latest share sale, Archer said its total liquidity is more than $2 billion.

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