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How some US companies are turning a potential tariff hangover into an even bigger profit party

By preparing for the worst, these management teams no longer have to hope for the best.

Luke Kawa

By preparing for the worst, some of America’s leading companies no longer have to hope for the best.

Sam Rines, macro strategist at WisdomTree and the brains behind its GeoAlpha Opportunities Fund, has a brilliant thesis that helps explain one of the thornier questions in markets: how have stocks done so well, and earnings estimates held up so much, despite a big rise in tariff rates (albeit in many cases not as bad as what was floated on April 2)?

One could be pithy and just say “AI,” but that would be incomplete.

Rines is one of my favorite strategists for the way he scours micro information from companies to inform macro, top-down views about the economy and financial markets, and his work in unpacking how management teams are adapting to tariffs of an unknown size and scope is a great example of just this.

Here’s an excerpt from his recent note:

“Then there are the companies with too much tariff priced in. And those are the ones to watch. Again, there is a particular cadence to the companies —

- Guided for the worst of all possible worlds. (the reverse Leibniz guide)

- Found out it was not quite that bad after various tariff announcements and internal adjustments.

- Are now guiding some of the impact back to the bottom line. (emerged from the Dark Night of Earnings)”

One thing that blue-chip companies are very good at is overcoming shocks. I mean, look at the chart:

(It helps that the ones that aren’t get expunged from the index and replaced by firms that are!)

When you tell management teams that they’re about to have a 500-pound cross to bear, they’ll prepare. And when that turns out to be 350 pounds, they’ll be able to run a sub-three-hour marathon carrying it.

Rines highlights a few examples of this phenomenon during this earnings season. The best one, without a doubt, is 3M.

“Guiding down the tariff impact from $0.20 to $0.40 of net impact to $0.10 might sound trivial,” he wrote. “But the interaction of expecting a larger impact and preparing for it led 3M to guide earnings higher than their pre-tariff (January) expectation.”

3M earnings presentation
Source: 3M earnings presentation

Now, does this hold as a general rule? That’s a little tough to disentangle (and the answer is probably not). S&P 500 2025 earnings-per-share estimates are well below where they started the year. There is a tendency for calendar-year earnings to be revised lower within the year, though. So I’m not prepared to say (nor is Rines!) that tariffs are outright positive for earnings. But based on his work, I am fairly confident in concluding that tariffs provided a kick in the rear end that catalyzed some executive teams to make decisions that are boosting the profitability of their businesses.

Rines highlights Procter & Gamble, Deere & Co., and Kimberly-Clark as some of the stocks to watch to observe how widespread this dynamic may be.

“There are plenty of companies with a tariff overhang. For some, that hangover will be warranted. But others will emerge on the other side with better outcomes,” he concluded. “It may be surprising to see who the winners are at the end of earnings season. With tariff impacts being mitigated and pricing plans to come, this earnings season could be surprisingly positive.”

(Somehow, we got through this piece without referencing the apocryphal and not quite correct quote from JFK about how the Chinese word for crisis is composed of “danger” and “opportunity.”)

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Speculative stocks rebound from early sell-off

As we head toward the last hour of a wild week of trading, the buckle-up vibes the market started out with Friday have mellowed into a modestly positive day, with the Invesco QQQ Trust and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF both in the green.

But the volatility was pretty wild for some of the high-beta momentum stocks that have taken some of the worst beatings in recent days.

Shares like Applied Digital and Bloom Energy saw cumulative swings on the day along the lines of 20 percentage points. Even those that haven’t quite managed to stay positive, like IREN and Oklo, have nonetheless erased sizable losses.

Why? Frankly, it’s impossible to say. The same uncertainties that the market was facing yesterday — doubts about further rate hikes, confusion about the state of the economy, jitters about the potential for the AI boom to turn into a bust — are still hovering out there somewhere. Perhaps it will take more than a 2-percentage point drop from record highs for the major indexes — about the extent of the recent sell-off — to dull the retail reflex to buy the dip.

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Luke Kawa

Micron spikes on report that Samsung hiked memory chip prices by as much as 60%

Memory chip specialist Micron is soaring after Reuters reported that Samsung has raised prices of select memory chips by as much as 60% since September, citing two people with knowledge of the price changes.

Memory chips play a key supporting role in the AI boom by feeding high-powered GPUs with data to process.

Micron, the biggest US memory chip seller, has been on an absolute tear, more than doubling in price since the end of August. Shares recently traded more than 15% above the average analyst price target, a record based on data going back to 2007.

These days, you need a pretty good memory to keep up with all the bullish news flow surrounding memory chip stocks, whether it’s been reports of imminent price hikes for these chips, South Korean memory giant SK Hynix already being sold out of all its 2026 production, or Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang nodding at shortages of these valuable components.

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Warner Bros. Discovery rises as potential sale boils down to bidding war between Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix

The potential sale of Warner Bros. Discovery appears to have boiled down to three contenders: Paramount Skydance, Comcast, and Netflix.

All three entertainment giants are prepping bids for WBD, with a deadline of next Thursday for first-round offers, according to Wall Street Journal reporting. Warner Bros. shares climbed more than 2% in premarket trading on Friday.

Per the WSJ, Comcast and Netflix are mostly interested in WBD’s streaming assets, while Paramount — which is said to have had three offers rejected already — wants to buy the whole company.

According to people familiar with the companies’ plans, Paramount believes it has the clearest path toward regulatory approval, as it thinks Netflix’s cofounder, Reed Hastings, having supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election could be a significant hurdle in getting a deal approved, per the WSJ.

Per the WSJ, Comcast and Netflix are mostly interested in WBD’s streaming assets, while Paramount — which is said to have had three offers rejected already — wants to buy the whole company.

According to people familiar with the companies’ plans, Paramount believes it has the clearest path toward regulatory approval, as it thinks Netflix’s cofounder, Reed Hastings, having supported Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election could be a significant hurdle in getting a deal approved, per the WSJ.

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Luke Kawa

Beyond Meat’s refinancing efforts that spurred meme stock rally now have shares down 67%

Well, with a bit of time and a lot of volatility, the dust is settling on how Beyond Meat’s refinancing efforts have gone.

This morning, management announced that its new 2030 notes could be converted at a price of about $1.7459, or around 85% above where shares are trading in the premarket in the midst of another big retreat.

The twists and turns that brought us here:

On September 29, the company announced its intention to replace $1.15 billion in convertible notes due in 2027 (with an interest rate of 0%) with a mix of stock and up to $202.5 million in new second lien convertible notes due in 2030 (with an interest rate of 7%). Prior to that, its stock closed at $2.85.

Shortly after management reached a deal with 97% of its 2027 noteholders in mid-October, Beyond Meat became a meme stock. Despite massive dilution that raised the company’s share count by more than 300% and made prior noteholders the new corporate owners, retail traders positioned for a potential short squeeze in the shares, thinking the refinancing would give the company a new lease on life.

Shares rose from a closing low of $0.52 on October 16 to an intermediate closing peak of $3.62 on October 21 — a near 600% rally in just three sessions. That propelled shares to well above where they were trading before these refinancing plans were announced. But the true frenzied zenith for Beyond Meat came the next session, when the stock more than doubled intraday on what were then record volumes of above 2 billion, only to ultimately close slightly lower. The air came out of the balloon almost immediately thereafter.

(A fun aside: in calculating the conversion rate for the 2030 convertible notes, management deems that day to have been a “market disruption event,” which removes it from the calculations and makes the conversion price lower than it otherwise would have been.)

Shares tanked on October 23 on heavy volumes, and then interest and trading activity in Beyond continued to wane — along with its share price. Delaying the release of Q3 results as management tried to figure out how big of a write-down to take and then issuing those numbers along with a weak Q4 sales outlook did nothing to change the narrative.

There’s no reason to think those 2030 notes will be converted any time soon, based on where the stock is trading. Because these 2030 notes provide the opportunity for “payment in kind” and Beyond is in a relatively stressed financial position, interest on these notes can be paid not just with cash but also (more likely) through the issuance of more stock or the accumulation of more debt.

In sum: Beyond Meat eliminated about $800 million in debt and all it got in exchange was a 67% decline in its stock price, a longer runway to make processed peas into faux meat, and an entertaining (and for those who bought into the meme rally without exiting at the right time, painful) story.

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