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IBM beats Q4 earnings expectations, stock rises

Here’s what big blue reported.

1/28/26 4:33PM

IBM jumped in after-hours trading after posting better-than-expected Q4 revenue and sales figures:

Q4 revenue of $19.69 billion vs. the $19.21 billion FactSet consensus estimate.
Adjusted earnings per share of $4.52 vs. the $4.31 consensus expectation.
Sales of $9.03 billion at its key, high-margin software segment vs. an $8.77 billion consensus of nine analyst estimates.
Sales of $5.13 billion in its infrastructure unit, which houses its growing AI mainframe business, vs. a $4.71 billion consensus estimate.

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said: “Infrastructure continued its double-digit revenue growth with the robust adoption of the next generation of our mainframe platform. Our generative AI book of business now stands at more than $12.5 billion.”

That’s up from $9.5 billion at the end of Q3.

The market’s positive reaction to the results could signal new life for IBM shares. They’ve had a volatile run over the last year, in which they’ve risen roughly 30%. But they’ve been essentially flat so far in early 2026.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

IBM beats Q4 earnings expectations, stock rises

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