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Opendoor to the shorts (Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./Getty Images)

Inside Opendoor’s plan to give short sellers a temporary middle finger

“I mostly just pity them. They don’t really build anything,” Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian said of short sellers.

At its core, Opendoor Technologies is a comeback story of an online real estate company left for dead.

And a miniature version of that story played out in earnest on Friday, when shares of the company were cratering after Opendoor posted a bigger-than-expected Q3 loss, with management guiding for even more red ink in Q4. The stock went on to erase a decline of more than 20% to finish flat — its largest daily comeback ever.

The stock is up nearly 15% as of 10:54 a.m. ET.

No doubt, the broader recovery in risk appetite is playing a role. But an Opendoor-specific answer probably lies in a tactic employed by management that’s pushing short sellers to think twice about continuing to bet against the company: a dividend of tradable warrants.

Shareholders of record as of 5 p.m. on November 18 will receive three tradable warrants for every 30 shares they own, each with exercise prices of $9, $13, and $17 that expire on November 20, 2026.

Here’s how this changes the proposition for short sellers in the short term:

  • Before this move, shares of Opendoor were worth whatever you thought they were worth based on an analysis of future discounted cash flows (or vibes). Now, they’re worth whatever you thought they were, plus the option value embedded in these tradable warrants. So, more.

  • From now through November 18, a short seller effectively has leveraged exposure to Opendoor: if the value of the stock goes up, the value of those looming tradable warrants is also going up (because they’ll be closer to their exercise prices).

  • If you’re short Opendoor when this dividend of warrants is issued, you’re responsible for buying those warrants and delivering them to whomever loaned the shares to you, known as payment in lieu. (Or, your broker may charge your account the requisite amount and procure those warrants for their rightful holder.)

This can create a bit of a cascade: if some short sellers decide it’s no longer worth the extra headache betting against Opendoor under these circumstances and close their position, that’s buying power that can propel the shares higher, which could then dissuade other short sellers from holding their position, and so on.

“Yes, I’ll admit it, it gives me just a bit of joy that this will totally ruin the night of a few short sellers,” CEO Kaz Nejatian said during the conference call on Thursday. Of note: the exercise prices for these warrants also correspond to the performance-based vesting schedule for the new CEO’s pay package. That is, the interests of Kaz Nejatian and tradable warrant holders are nearly perfectly aligned (with some small timing discrepancies).

The three bullish contracts with the most volume on Friday expire at the end of this week with strike prices of $7, $7.50, and $6.50. Friday is the last expiry before the dividend of tradable warrants to shareholders of record. In other words, in the event these options are in the money, those exercising them would then (soon) become eligible to receive the tradable warrants, assuming they’d held those shares for a couple days.

As of mid-October, exchange data showed roughly 28% of Opendoor shares were sold short.

And tradable warrants aren’t the only thing Opendoor announced on Thursday that might put downward pressure on short interest: the company also revealed that the majority of its 2030 convertible notes were refinanced with equity. Holders of convertible notes often short the underlying stock as part of an arbitrage strategy (and now lose a reason to do so as the convertible debt disappears).

Later on the conference call, Nejatian added, “I don’t spend that much of my time thinking about short sellers. I never worked on Wall Street, and I generally don’t understand why these people do what they do. It just seems deeply boring and like just bad for the soul. I mostly just pity them. They don’t really build anything.”

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The AI trade roars back after its worst week since April tariff announcements

The AI trade is roaring back after getting speed checked last week.

Baskets of US AI beneficiaries compiled by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, which just suffered their worst week since the Rose Garden tariffs announcement, are up more than 3.5% in early trading to lead a broad-based market recovery amid optimism that the government shutdown will soon be over.

The likes of Palantir Technologies (which tumbled despite reporting strong results), Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings are all up more than 4.5% as of 10:45 a.m. ET.

Semiconductor stocks are also rallying strongly after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang asked his counterpart at TSMC to boost chip output.

“While the bears will continue to yell ‘AI Bubble’ from their hibernation caves we continue to point to this tech cap-ex supercycle that is driving this 4th Industrial Revolution into the next few years,” Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives wrote. “This is our focus and along with our AI use case work in the field is driving trillions of spending over the next few years and thus will keep this tech bull market alive for at least another 2 years in our view.”

Bank of America argues (convincingly) that last week’s retreat in the cohort had little to do with any industry-specific fundamental news.

“The pervasive skepticism re AI capex is understandable but likely a contrarian positive, helping minimize overcrowding,” Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya wrote in a note reaffirming his conviction on his preferred data center and semicap stocks. “Yes, large-cap AI semis have been volatile (down 7-8% on average last week) but we argue that was driven by (correctable) macro factors (US govt. shutdown, weak jobs data, tariff turmoil, misstated OpenAI comments) rather than any negative datapoint about the AI spending cycle.”

Further bolstering that argument, 22V Research flagged how earnings expectations are improving much more rapidly for AI-linked firms than the S&P 500 at large.

“AI usage and AI related fundamentals are unusually strong,” wrote Dennis DeBusschere, chief market strategist at 22V Research. “In 3Q, AI earnings growth rate has been ~3x that of other S&P names.”

22V Research earnings trends
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Coinbase rises after token platform launch is confirmed

Coinbase shares jumped early Monday, after The Wall Street Journal confirmed rumors about it launching a new site offering retail traders access to “token offerings” reminiscent of the “intial coin offering” craze from a few years back.

After soaring between 2016 and 2018, the ICO market imploded amid a “collapse in crypto prices, along with the rampant fraud,” that “led to regulatory scrutiny and a drastic decline in token offerings in the following years,” the Journal reported.

The new site from Coinbase, however, will “provide users with a more professional, safer way to buy new tokens. It will feature investor-protection mechanisms that discourage quick profit-taking and prevent immediate token dumping by project founders,” company officials told the Journal.

The new site from Coinbase, however, will “provide users with a more professional, safer way to buy new tokens. It will feature investor-protection mechanisms that discourage quick profit-taking and prevent immediate token dumping by project founders,” company officials told the Journal.

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Bank of America: Claiming an AI bubble over OpenAI's money situation is a “lazy/cherry-picked argument”

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya is throwing down the gauntlet: there’s one bear case against AI stocks he really doesn’t like.

“The common argument that ‘AI stocks must be overvalued because OpenAI cannot justify $1.4 trillion of long-term commitments’ is a lazy/cherry-picked argument in our view,” he wrote in a note to clients on Monday, in which the analyst reiterated his confidence in his favorite data center and semi stocks.

He added:

“While we agree OpenAI’s plans are very ambitious, none of that spending has yet been put in place and will be gated by practical constraints such as access to power and data center space. The majority of AI spending is being done by profitable, public hyperscalers for whom upgrading infrastructure is mission-critical (upgrade to accelerated from traditional CPU-computing) and defensive (e.g. Google’s $92bn capex ‘defends’ a $200bn+ search leadership by providing Gemini-chatbot driven results to all customers who might otherwise defect to ChatGPT, Perplexity or other search engines.) Meanwhile private AI companies are making rapid strides attracting business customers (1mn+ by OpenAI, 300K+ by Anthropic) which will continue to put pressure on public software and infrastructure-as-a service vendors to raise AI investments.”

On the one hand, yes, I concur: while ChatGPT may have been what brought the AI boom into public consciousness, it’s not the alpha and omega of the movement. The continued push from the publicly traded, immensely profitable tech companies that lead the S&P 500 is probably the more important factor behind the mile-deep, inch-wide AI spending boom in the here and now.

On the other hand, OpenAI’s spending commitments have driven big valuation bumps for Amazon, Broadcom, AMD, and Oracle in just the past two months. In other words, those stocks have priced in that demand being real and realized. To the extent it isn’t, or can’t be, well then some overvaluation worries would be somewhat justified.

Reports that OpenAI is moving toward an IPO, however, would offer some enhanced confidence that it’ll be able to get its hands on the cash necessary to follow through on these pledges.

markets

Airlines climb with end of shutdown in sight, despite widespread flight cancellations

Shares of major US airlines are rising Monday as investors react optimistically to the Senate getting closer to a deal to end the government shutdown.

Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, United Airlines, and JetBlue were all up about 2% in premarket trading, despite hundreds of flight cancellations and delays across the US.

Nearly 1,600 flights within, into, or out of the US have been canceled on Monday, data from Flight Aware shows, and more than 1,400 have been delayed. According to a CNN analysis, this weekend was the worst for air traffic control staffing since the beginning of the shutdown 40 days ago.

Nearly 1,600 flights within, into, or out of the US have been canceled on Monday, data from Flight Aware shows, and more than 1,400 have been delayed. According to a CNN analysis, this weekend was the worst for air traffic control staffing since the beginning of the shutdown 40 days ago.

markets

Health insurers slide after Trump targets them in social media posts

Major health insurers are down in premarket trading on Monday after President Trump took aim at them over the weekend in a series of antagonizing social media posts, as lawmakers make progress on a deal to end the government shutdown.

Affordable Care Act tax credits, which subsidize plans provided by private insurers, have been a major point of contention among lawmakers as they inch toward a deal to reopen the government. Over the weekend, Trump suggested in a Truth Social post that THE MONEY MUST NOW GO DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE, TAKING THE FAT CAT INSURANCE COMPANIES OUT OF THE CORRUPT SYSTEM OF HEALTHCARE.

The Senate voted on Sunday to advance a proposal to end the shutdown (now the longest in history), a proposal that reportedly does not include an extension of the ACA tax credits. The market-implied probability of ACA tax credit extensions making it to the first funding bill fell from over 60% on Sunday to 4% on Monday morning, according to data from Polymarket.

The biggest providers of ACA marketplace plans like UnitedHealthcare, Elevance Health, Oscar Health, and Molina Healthcare fell by Monday morning.

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