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Great expectations
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Investors are paying record prices for every dollar of future S&P 500 revenue

The current market is a Rorschach test; do you see a golden age of corporate profitability ushered in by AI, or irrational exuberance gone mad?

US stocks may be breaking new ground, but with every fresh high, the chorus of people asking “are stocks overvalued?” gets a little bit louder.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 now trades at about 22.5x projected earnings for the next year, well above the three-decade average of 17.1x and inching closer to the dot-com peak of over 25x in 1999.

SP500 valuations
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Things look even more stretched on a price-to-sales basis: the index is now at a record 3.2x forward revenue — meaning investors are paying more than ever for every dollar of sales the S&P 500 companies are expected to generate over the coming 12 months.

All eggs in tech

In fact, the split between the two ratios shows a deeper issue in today’s market: its reliance on Big Tech. The 10 largest companies of the S&P 500 now make up nearly 40% of the index’s total value, and most of them are uber profitable megacap tech stocks, their tasty margins keeping a lid on the P/E ratio.

Nvidia, for example, has an operating profit margin near 60%, and it alone represents more than 7% of the index, dominating the S&P 500 more than any company has for 44 years. Back in 1990, by contrast, the top 10 companies were less dominant and came from a more varied mix of sectors, including names like Exxon, IBM, Walmart, and Coca-Cola.

Put simply: stocks are undeniably expensive, whether measured on profits or sales. Whether you think that’s a problem depends a lot on whether you think the BATMMAAN stocks are about to collectively stumble.

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Quantinuum opens above IPO price and continues to rise as Wall Street remains hungry for quantum exposure

Wall Street is ready for even more quantum computing exposure. Shares of Quantinuum opened at $68, 13% above their initial public offering price, when the quantum company debuted on the Nasdaq Thursday.

The stock remained above the original pricing of $60 into Thursday afternoon. The Honeywell-backed company is pushing quantum technology further into the spotlight, raising $1.68 billion by selling 28 million shares, giving it a market cap of over $17 billion.

Investors have been piling into quantum computing stocks recently, with Rigetti Computing more than doubling over the past 12 months, while D-Wave Quantum is up almost 60% and IonQ has gained more than 63% over the same period.

In its May S-1 filing, Quantinuum said it has active customer engagements primarily focused across pharmaceuticals, materials science, financial services, government and industrial markets, including with market leaders, such as JPMorgan Chase.

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Applied Aerospace rises on second day of trading

Applied Aerospace & Defense shares are gaining on Thursday, though they’re still trading below their Wednesday IPO price of $20. Yesterday’s debut raised $650 million and put the company’s valuation at roughly $3.5 billion. Despite opening trading at $20.75, shares closed the day at just over $19.

Applied Aerospace manufactures components used in rockets, aircraft, and defense systems, including solid rocket motor cases, fuselage assemblies, and engine shafts. Its customers include companies such as Boeing and Anduril Industries. Separately, its IPO filing showed that its three largest customers accounted for roughly 59% of revenue in 2025.

Investors remain interested in defense-related listings as geopolitical tensions and military spending continue to drive interest in the sector.

Were right at the epicenter of doing really incredible mission work supporting next-gen interceptor development, which protects cities and countries, CEO Trip Ferguson said in an interview with NYSE.

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Ciena sinks despite crushing Q2 estimates and raising full-year outlook

Ciena Corp. shares are plunging Thursday despite the network technology company posting Q2 earnings results that beat Wall Street consensus estimates and raising its full-year outlook.

Ciena stock has surged so far this year, gaining over 150% year to date including todays drop.

Key numbers:

  • Revenue of $1.57 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $1.50 billion).

  • Earnings per share of $1.64 (estimate: $1.46).

  • 2026 full-year revenue guidance of $6.3 billion (estimate: $6.18 billion).

Revenue grew 40% year over year. That growth was anchored by the companys core Optical Networking segment, which brought in $1.1 billion, while its Routing and Switching division nearly doubled to $174.2 million.

Management also raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $6.3 billion (plus or minus $100 million). This marks a notable upgrade from its previous full-year target range of $5.9 billion to $6.3 billion. For the upcoming fiscal third quarter, the company anticipates revenues of $1.625 billion, exceeding the Wall Streets expectations of $1.58 billion.

Todays results reflect the strength of our portfolio, the power of our business model, and disciplined execution in a dynamic supply environment, Gary Smith, president and CEO of Ciena, said in a statement.

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PVH shares plunge on lowered revenue outlook tied to geopolitical tensions

PVH is plunging in early trading following the release of its Q1 report, as a lowered full-year sales guidance overshadowed an otherwise solid earnings beat. The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, warned investors that ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions would impact international revenues.

The primary driver behind the stock collapse is a revised fiscal 2026 forecast that caught Wall Street off guard. Revenue is now projected to be approximately flat compared to the flat to slight increase it had forecast previously, with the prolonged war with Iran and its widening economic impact on the EMEA region cited as the cause. Revenue in constant currency terms for the EMEA region fell 5% during the quarter as a result of these disruptions. The company continues to expect growth in its Americas and Asia-Pacific businesses.

PVH continues to expect full-year adjusted earnings between $11.80 and $12.10 per share, which includes a roughly $3.30 impact from tariff costs and around a $1.70 benefit from tariff refunds.

“As we look forward, we are balancing two opposing forces: on one side, the increasing brand and business momentum we are driving in both Calvin and TOMMY, and on the other, the prolonged effects of the Middle East conflict, which is putting pressure on the consumer in EMEA,” Stefan Larsson, the CEO of PVH, commented in a statement. “We are adjusting to the moment, while keeping our long-term approach to fueling our brand and business momentum.”

For Q1 itself, PVH posted total sales that rose 2% year over year to $2.03 billion. The retail brand bounced back to an $88 million profit, or $1.90 per share, reversing a net loss of $44.8 million from the same quarter last year. Growth was anchored by the companys direct-to-consumer sales, which grew by 6% on the back of strong performance in Calvin Klein denim and underwear, alongside Tommy Hilfiger outerwear.

Despite the sell-off, PVH stock has risen over 30% year to date.

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