markets

Luke Kawa11/4/24

Investors are worried about the US election, but not enough to flee the stock market

Investors are clearly bracing for the US election to leave a mark on markets.

Jeff Jacobson, equity-derivatives strategist at 22V Research, flagged that options markets are pricing in a 2.6% move for the SPDR S&P 500 Trust for the week, and an even larger 3% swing for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.

But even so, investors aren’t worried to the point of being paralyzed by inaction or sizing down risk ahead of this event, according to Deutsche Bank.

“Our measure of equity positioning has continued to go sideways modestly above neutral, in contrast to sharp declines into underweight territory heading into the last two elections,” wrote strategists led by Parag Thatte.

DB equity positioning — Source: Deutsche Bank

The S&P 500 also fell less in October than the benchmark normally does ahead of a tight election, they observed. That’s a continuation of a welcome trend that has seen the stock market do much better in 2024 than it has in a typical presidential election year.

DB election year performance — Source: Deutsche Bank

And to repeat one of our favorite quotes: performance is a magnet for assets.

DB equity flows election year — Source: Deutsche Bank

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markets

J. Edward Moreno7/7/26

SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings

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