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Luke Kawa

IonQ posts huge sales beat in Q3

IonQ posted a monster top-line beat in the third quarter, along with a smaller loss than analysts had feared.

The results:

  • Revenue: $39.9 million (compared to a consensus estimate of $27 million and guidance for $27 million)

  • Adjusted earnings per share: -$0.17 (estimate: -$0.31)

Management boosted its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $106 million to $110 million (previously $82 million to $100 million).

Shares are up nearly 4% in premarket trading on Thursday morning.

“We believe the growing momentum across a variety of applications reflects IonQ's transformation into a full-stack quantum computing platform company,” writes Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton. “Notably, management believes that providing a QC platform will enable the company to pursue ‘triple-digit million-dollar’ awards over time.”

The prospect of government support has been a major catalyst for the quantum space in recent months, including the US government deeming the technology an R&D priority, which was followed by a report that the Trump administration was in talks to accumulate equity stakes in IonQ and its peers. That report, however, was quickly contradicted by separate reports.

Over the course of the third quarter, IonQ signed an agreement with the Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technology in space, and also announced plans to acquire quantum sensor company Vector Atomic. It carried some of this momentum through early in Q4, claiming a “quantum computing world record” for the accuracy of its two-qubit gate model.

Shares of the trapped ion pure-play quantum computing company peaked at nearly $85 in mid-October, but slumped into the mid-$50s ahead of this report as part of a broad pullback across many speculative pockets of the market.

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US airlines climb as oil plunges following Trump’s softer position on Iran intervention

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down around 4.7% Thursday afternoon as President Trump appeared to soften his stance on further US strikes against Iran.

That sent US airline stocks climbing as investors priced in lower fuel costs. Shares of United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines all rose about 3% on Thursday. Earlier this month, airline stocks were boosted when investors appeared to price in some medium-term relief on the possibility of Venezuela’s reserves becoming more developed.

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TSMC’s blowout quarter, guidance, and capex plans send AI to the sky

TSMC’s stellar Q4 results, bright Q1 guidance, and willingness to spend way more on capital expenditure than analysts had anticipated this year are giving a big jolt to the AI trade.

“We believe the strong 1Q26 guidance has likely surprised many investors to the upside,” wrote Needham analyst Charles Shi, who boosted his price target on the stock to $410 from $360 in the wake of these results. “Solid CapEx guidance should also lead to even stronger wafer fab equipment (WFE) outlook for 2026 and beyond.”

Beyond TSMC, the results are boosting other stocks tied to AI:

No single quarter of corporate earnings or guidance is sufficient proof against (or in favor of!) any kind of AI bubble, particularly when the biggest drivers of capex have consistently said the risk is spending too little rather than too much.

But TSMC is keenly aware of the potential downside of overextending itself into a future air pocket in demand, and has engaged in long-term planning and channel checks downstream to better understand the market for its products.

If TSMC’s capex plans aren’t executed well, it would be a “big disaster” for the company, CEO CC Wei said on the conference call.

But engaging with customers over their production needs for new wafers is being done “at least two to three years in advance,” he added.

“I spent a lot of time in the last three, four months talking to my customers and then my customers’ customers” to make sure that demand is real, said Wei, who came away “quite satisfied with the answer” and was shown “the evidence that the AI really helped their businesses.”

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Talen soars on new power plant purchases in giant grid feeding Data Center Alley

Talen Energy soared early Thursday after the Houston-based utility said it had bought power plants in the massive PJM exchange, which has seen rising consumer prices linked to AI infrastructure.

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday on how the run-up in prices has been a growing political headache for data center developers.

Yesterday, PJM cut its forecast for peak summer of 2027 demand, suggesting that data center electricity demand going forward may have been overstated.

But Talen’s purchase of natural gas-fueled plants — one in Indiana and two in Ohio — for $3.45 billion in cash and stock suggests the company remains bullish on the AI build-out, especially within the 13-state PJM grid. The nonprofit power grid serves 67 million people from New Jersey to Kentucky, and includes key areas of relatively high data center density such as Ohio and Virginia.

Early Thursday, Talen shares were up by the most since last July. This reaction to the latest in a string of acquisitions suggests Talen executives have an incentive to stay on offense.

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday on how the run-up in prices has been a growing political headache for data center developers.

Yesterday, PJM cut its forecast for peak summer of 2027 demand, suggesting that data center electricity demand going forward may have been overstated.

But Talen’s purchase of natural gas-fueled plants — one in Indiana and two in Ohio — for $3.45 billion in cash and stock suggests the company remains bullish on the AI build-out, especially within the 13-state PJM grid. The nonprofit power grid serves 67 million people from New Jersey to Kentucky, and includes key areas of relatively high data center density such as Ohio and Virginia.

Early Thursday, Talen shares were up by the most since last July. This reaction to the latest in a string of acquisitions suggests Talen executives have an incentive to stay on offense.

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Spotify increases its US subscription prices for the third time in 3 years

The cost to stream music and podcasts ad-free on Spotify is going up again in the US next month, marking the third price hike by the company since 2023.

The monthly cost of individual premium plans will increase from $12 to $13, while family plans will jump from $20 to $22. Spotify last raised US prices in July 2024 (and 2023 before that). This is the first price hike under the tenure of new co-CEOs Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström, who together replaced Daniel Ek earlier this month.

Spotify shares climbed about 3% after the market opened on Thursday, but has since fallen in early trading.

When it reported third-quarter earnings in November, the streamer said its global paid subscriber count had climbed to 281 million — 12% year-over-year growth. At the same time, ad-supported revenue fell 5.5% despite an 11% jump in monthly active users.

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