markets

Luke Kawa12/10/25

It’s cyclicals over speculation ahead of the Fed meeting

“Sell your high-flying winners and speculative stocks ahead of the Fed, but the US economy is fine” seems to be the market narrative du jour.

The likes of Bloom Energy, IREN, Opendoor Technologies, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, and Oklo all fell at least 2.5% in early trading. Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs basket that tracks the performance of cyclical stocks relative to more defensive companies is working on its ninth straight day of gains, which would be its longest winning streak since 2017. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, another very economically relevant part of the market, is also trading to the upside.

Goldman Sachs’ index of high-beta momentum longs (that is, stocks that have been trending higher) is down about 1.5% in early trading, while the opposite group, high-beta momentum shorts, is enjoying a nice bounce.

In other words, it looks like traders are taking down some risk in volatile long/short trades ahead of the US central bank’s final meeting of the year amid fears of a so-called “hawkish cut.” Speculative stocks, and in particular small-caps, had been buoyed by the resumption of rate cuts this year.

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Matt Phillips7h

Oil settles Friday at highest level since start of war

US oil prices moved higher in afternoon trading Friday, sapping strength from the stock market as they posted their highest close since the start of the Iran war.

After another day where the Strait of Hormuz was essentially closed to global tanker traffic, US futures for West Texas Intermediate settled up 3.1% at $98.71 a barrel for an 8.6% weekly gain, per Dow Jones data.

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

Oil Posts Weekly Gains As Middle East Conflict Drags On

Oil Posts Weekly Gains As Middle East Conflict Drags On

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

Tasha Matsumoto

Stocks post third straight week of losses as Brent crude surges above $100

Stocks wiped out early gains to close lower amid the ongoing war in Iran.

Roaring bear

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Matt Phillips11h

Memory stocks rebound off last weeks losses

Memory stocks Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings rose again Friday, putting these crucial providers of chips for AI inference work on track for big weekly gains after last week’s steep losses following the outbreak of war with Iran.

There’s no obvious trigger for the move higher for these shares this week, other than a bit of a recovery in the AI trade more broadly — AI beneficiaries like IT cable and connections maker Amphenol and custom chip and networking company Marvell Technology clawed back some gains this week — perhaps due Oracle’s earnings earlier, and some mean reversion to boot.

Micron is due to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, with the company catching a couple price target hikes this week, including one from Wedbush on Friday.

Sandisk is something of a different story, as its enormous gains over the last 12 months — roughly 1,200% — have made it a momentum play beloved by the retail crowd.

It was up about 20% this week at around 11 a.m. ET. And its nearly 170% gain this year keeps the stock on top of the S&P 500, in terms of price performance.

The S&P 500’s internals are awful... while it’s still less than 5% from its record closing high

The breadth of negative momentum within the index’s constituents is even worse than at the tariff-induced market bottom in April 2025.

Illustration - Endometriosis

These two charts show how the Iran war is causing markets to price in a longer oil supply crunch

The rise of third-month Brent futures relative to front-month this week is unprecedented since at least 1989.

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