Job growth crushes estimates in January, unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.3%

The American labor market, ladies and gentlemen.

The January jobs report was a blockbuster, with nonfarm payrolls growth of 130,000.

Economists polled by Bloomberg expected nonfarm payroll growth of 65,000 for the month. Heading into this release, the event contracts trading closest to a coin flip were “above 50,000” and “above 60,000,” suggesting the masses were less optimistic than Wall Street.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, while economists had anticipated it would hold steady at 4.4%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF extended gains in premarket trading following this release.

The employment gains were very narrowly focused on an industry basis: healthcare accounted for a whopping 123,500, or 95%, of the net job growth.

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Luke Kawa

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Software slump resumes after high-profile companies issue underwhelming outlooks

The nascent recovery in software stocks has become unglued thanks to negative news both foreign and domestic.

BAM Circus Festival Takes Place In Milan

Max Knoblauch1h

Electric aircraft maker Beta surges as Amazon discloses 5.3% stake, Jefferies upgrades stock to “buy”

Beta Technologies, the electric aircraft maker that went public in November, is soaring in early Wednesday trading. The stock climbed before markets opened following an upgrade from Jefferies from “hold” to “buy” with a $30 price target, reflecting a nearly 80% climb from its price as of Tuesday’s close.

Jefferies believes Beta shares are attractive after recent risk-off trading — the stock is down 40% since the beginning of the year.

Also appearing to boost optimism in Beta is an SEC filing on Tuesday that indicated Amazon owns a 5.3% stake in the company. The stake isn’t new: Amazon was listed as a 5% or greater shareholder in Beta’s November IPO.

Matt Phillips2h

Analysts give mixed reviews on Robinhood’s Q4 results

Robinhood Markets remained down in premarket trading after delivering Q4 results Tuesday that fell short of some of Wall Street’s expectations, partly due to a slide in crypto trading.

Here’s what analysts had to say about the print:

Barclays: “Q4 came in softer than expected as lower take rates in options and crypto impacted transaction revenues, and lower [securities] lending in particular impacted [net interest income].”

Mizuho: “Prediction Markets were strong, but overall mixed quarter.”

Piper Sandler: “Bottom line, despite these ST headwinds which we laid out in our note last week, our LT thesis remains intact. If you can stomach the volatility, HOOD is the best way to play secular growth in retail trading and the closest FinTech platform we’ve ever seen to achieving ‘super app’ status.”

Zack’s Investment Research: “Crypto trading revenue fell 38% year over year in Q4, and January data showed another 57% decline in app-based crypto volumes. Unfortunately, that’s not a seasonal blip, that’s a structural slowdown in one of Robinhood’s historically highest-margin engagement drivers.”

Citizens JMP: “Slight revenue shortfall for Robinhood Markets but better expense performance, broadening business contribution, and a full roadmap should support strong growth again in 2026; reiterate our Market Outperform rating.”

Luke Kawa2h

Unity Software craters after Q1 sales and earnings guidance fall short of estimates

Both pillars of Unity Software’s business are under pressure from AI tools and new entrants, and its internal AI capabilities don’t seem to be keeping up.

Shares of the gaming engine and ad tech company are off more than 20% in premarket trading. Its solid Q4 results were overshadowed by weak Q1 guidance, with management calling for revenues to range from $480 million to $490 million with adjusted EBITDA from $105 million to $110 million. Wall Street’s estimates were $494 million and $112 million, respectively.

The company’s outlook suggests “a slower than expected ramp-up in its AI-powered ad-technology tool, Vector,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Mandeep Singh and Nathan Naidu wrote. “Slow uptake of Unity 6 subscriptions, with guidance seeing flat growth in 1Q, could drag on top-line gains.”

Unity was among the stocks that cratered in late January after the release of Google’s Project Genie, which was able to recreate knockoffs of popular games.

Separately, Unity and peer AppLovin have suffered amid fears that their ad divisions will be disrupted by startups utilizing AI agents.

Matt Phillips & Luke Kawa4h

AI infrastructure company Vertiv soars after Q4 earnings beat, 2026 outlook crushes expectations

AI infrastructure company Vertiv Holdings is spiking after posting sunny guidance and Q4 earnings that beat estimates.

For Q4, the major provider of power and cooling solutions for data centers reported:

Adjusted earnings per share of $1.36, vs. the $1.29 consensus expectation from analysts surveyed by FactSet.
Sales of $2.88 billion, in line with estimates.

For Q1, management said adjusted earnings would come in between $0.95 and $1.01; even the lower end of that range is higher than the $0.93 consensus estimate. Q1 guidance for net sales of $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion also outstripped Wall Street’s call for $2.54 billion.

For the full year, the lower end of Vertiv’s range of guidance for net sales ($13.25 billion to $13.75 billion) and adjusted earnings per share ($5.97 to $6.07) were both above the highest estimates from analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Vertiv has to be one of the more successful examples of SPAC-era financial engineering.

The company came out of the combination of GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., a so-called blank check company, and Vertiv Holdings — then owned by private equity company Platinum Equity — as part of a roughly $1.9 billion deal, including debt, first announced in late 2019.

The stock pretty much went nowhere for years after it listed as Vertiv on February 10, 2020. But as the AI data center boom began to roll, the shares exploded. Since the end of 2022, they’re up more than 1,300% and Vertiv has created roughly $70 billion in market value.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.