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elementary!

The mystery of the Virginia-sized gap in US job numbers

The two major employment surveys tell very different stories about jobs in America. There's a reason for that.

Yiwen Lu

The two main employment indicators for the US economy are at odds with one another because of how they account for the surge in immigration surge or fail to do so.

Between November 2021 and June 2024, employment increased by 9.4 million, according to the non-farm payroll survey (CES). But the household survey (CPS) shows the gain was only 5.3 million for the same period – even after attempts to harmonize the two figures for differences in how they’re measured, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta said in a report.  

The difference between the two estimates is nearly equal to all the jobs in the state of Virginia.

Economists Jonathan Willis and Tao Zha conclude that the most likely reason for the gap is that the CPS understates population growth, which has been buoyed by a surge in immigration.

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Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Policy Hub

Data discrepancies always exists when comparing the payroll and the household surveys. This is because the payroll survey collects the data from businesses, while the household survey asks individual Americans their employment status. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which conducts the household survey, usually has a predetermined population size based on Census data. 

But in recent years, the difference in employed population between these two surveys reached an unusual level that’s too big to ignore.

Since 2022, population growth is stronger than previous Census estimates, due to an unanticipated surge in immigration. Using the Congressional Budget Office’s figure of 5.4 million in net immigration between 2022 and 2024, the Atlanta Fed report found that the level of immigration would translate to 2.6 million employed workers, or 75% of the gap between CES and CPS. 

The labor market is stronger than the household survey data would suggest. And this isn’t just a good-news story for people coming to the US, but also reflects better labor market outcomes for those already here.

After accounting for this revised population growth, both US-born and foreign-born employment increases, according to a separate analysis published by The Hamilton Project. While CPS numbers suggest that US-born employment declined over the course of 2023, the authors estimated that employment for this group actually increased by 740,000.

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The Hamilton Project

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Micron jumps amid report of memory chip price hikes

Shares of Micron are catching a bid on Wednesday after South Korean media reported that its biggest competitors are raising selling prices for a line of high-bandwidth memory chips even though these will soon no longer be the most cutting-edge offerings available.

“According to industry sources on the 24th, memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have reportedly raised HBM3E supply prices by nearly 20%,” per the report from Chosun Biz. “This is unusual, considering that prices typically drop ahead of next-generation HBM launches. The prevailing view is that this is due to upward adjustments in HBM3E orders for next year from companies like Google and Amazon, which design their own AI accelerators, as well as NVIDIA, the largest HBM3E customer.”

Micron, along with those two companies, make up the triumvirate of high-bandwidth memory chip suppliers. These companies are all moving towards ramping their next-gen HBM4 production next year.

Meanwhile, appetite for HBM3E is being reinforced in part by President Trump’s move to allow Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China.

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Opendoor acquires HomeBuyer.com in bid to boost home flipping and mortgage opportunities

Opendoor Technologies has acquired mortgage services platform HomeBuyer.com, according to a post on X from Chief Growth Officer Morgan Brown. Brown did not disclose financial terms of the deal in the post.

There’s an element of an acqui-hire here too, as HomeBuyer.com founder Dan Green will serve as Director of Mortgage Growth for Opendoor.

HomeBuyer.com offers tools for potential home buyers to assess their financing options, and mortgages are a logical avenue for Opendoor to pursue as the online real estate company looks transform the home buying and selling process in the US. At the very least, streamlining the financing process for potential buyers under its own roof should help Opendoor’s quest to pursue higher volumes of homes flipping.

Shares of Opendoor are little changed in premarket trading.

Many Opendoor bulls, including EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, have pointed to Opendoor’s potential to bolster its presence in mortgage, title, and other housing services as part of their optimistic view on the stock. In November along with the release of Q3 earnings, CEO Kaz Nejatian announced a new partnership with Roam pertaining to assumable mortgages.

Opendoor certainly hasn’t been idle during the holiday season. Earlier this week, the CEO touted an explosion in the company’s home-buying footprint to include all of the lower 48 US states, and management also announced that Coinbase Canada CEO Lucas Matheson was coming in to serve as its president.

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Intel drops on report that Nvidia stopped testing the 18A chip production process used by the chip manufacturer

Early on Christmas Eve, shares of Intel are tumbling like Santa off a rooftop after one too many spiked egg nogs.

Reuters reports that Nvidia “recently tested out whether it would manufacture its chips using Intel’s production process known as 18A but stopped moving forward, two people familiar with the matter said.”

Intel, for its part, told Reuters that its 18A processes are “progressing well” while it “continues to see strong interest” for its more advanced 14A production process. Previous reporting from the outlet indicated that in CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s early days leading Intel, he considered shelving the 18A manufacturing process entirely in favor of 14A in a bid to be more competitive with the likes of TSMC.

The $4 trillion chip designer announced a $5 billion investment in the chipmaker back in September as part of a collaboration that would see the two parties co-develop data center and PC products. That news sent shares of Intel up 23% in a single session, their biggest one-day gain since 1987.

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Luke Kawa

Trump administration says tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports are coming... in 2027

After a year-long investigation into China’s tactics to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry, the US has determined that its practices are “unreasonable” and is going to do something about that in 18 months.

The Trump administration’s office of the US trade representative said today that it plans to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors at a rate higher than 0% to be decided at least 30 days before June 23, 2027.

“China’s pursuit of its dominance goals has severely disadvantaged US companies, workers, and the U.S. economy generally through lessened competition and commercial opportunities and through the creation of economic security risks from dependencies and vulnerabilities,” per the USTR’s notice of action.

These levies, should they come to pass, would apply to silicon, diodes, transistors, and more.

US markets were completely unbothered by this revelation, likely because there is no immediate action against Chinese semi companies and therefore no disruption to business-as-usual. This represents a punting of a contentious matter, similar to how China delayed restrictions on rare earth shipments as part of a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi following their October meeting.

It’s another sign of a thaw in the US-China relations over the hot-button issue of semiconductors after President Trump gave Nvidia the go-ahead to sell its H200 chips to buyers in the world’s second-largest economy.

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