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Matt Phillips4/4/25

Morgan Stanley analysts say TikTok a “strategic fit” with Amazon

It’s official, the TikTok divest-or-dark law is legal, and analysts at Morgan Stanley think they know the perfect buyer: Amazon.

Analyst Brian Nowak wrote:

“We believe the combination of AMZN’s strong ad tech stack, advertiser/third party seller base, first party data and logistics assets put together with TikTok’s estimated ~32bn hours of US consumer engagement could build a viable social shopping network.”

Nowak noted that he has no knowledge of any deal discussions, and that neither ByteDance nor Amazon have commented on the chance for a tie-up.

But with US regulators unlikely to approve Meta or Alphabet building any more dominance in the online-ad space, the list of potential acquirers is slim:

“The number of companies (or individuals) who could fund a potential $80bn + acquisition (and its risks) is limited. AMZN with its $33bn of net cash on books and ~$69bn/82bn of FCF in ’25/’26 could (in theory) handle a purchase like this.”

Update April 4, 2025: Corrected article to reflect that Brian Nowak is an analyst at Morgan Stanley, not JP Morgan, as the article originally stated.

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J. Edward Moreno

Hims rises on revenue beat, discloses it’s again in partnership talks with Novo

Hims also disclosed on Monday that it’s in talks with Novo Nordisk to make the drugmaker’s weight-loss drugs available on its platform. Last time, that didn’t go so well.

Palantir reports Q3 numbers

Palantir posts ninth straight earnings beat, boosts guidance

Here’s how the numbers look.

Matt Phillips9h

Tasha Matsumoto

Amazon and the AI trade sustain stock gains

Stocks kicked off what is historically their best month of the year on a positive note, with help from Amazon and AI.

PAMPLONA, NAVARRA, SPAIN - 2025/07/09: Morante de la Puebla, a bullfighter from Seville fights a bull from the Alvaro Nunez ranch in Pamplona's Plaza Monumental during the 2025 San FermÌn festival

markets

Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

Matt Phillips13h

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