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Hong Kong, October 08 2017: JPMorgan Chase & Co. building in Central, Hong Kong . JPMorgan is a Swiss global financial services company, One of big financial company in the world
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Banks bludgeoned as JPMorgan says it won’t make as much money as Wall Street hopes next year

Analysts’ estimate for net interest income is “not very reasonable,” says JPMorgan’s president

Luke Kawa

The biggest US bank is having its largest one-day drop since June 2020.

Shares of JPMorgan are off about 6.7% as of 12:40 ET after bank President Daniel Pinto warned that Wall Street’s forecasts for the year ahead are too rosy. That’s a worse showing than the bank’s 6.5% decline after reporting earnings in April.

At an industry conference on Tuesday, Pinto said current expectations for 2025 net interest income (the difference between what a bank earns on its loan book and other asset holdings and what it pays out to depositors) are “not very reasonable” and “will be lower” than the $89.5 billion consensus estimate.

A bad day for US financials was not on Tuesday’s bingo card after reports that a planned increase in bank capital requirements is getting watered down.

But the group is at the center of the down day in the stock market, with the Invesco KBW Bank ETF off 3.6% as of 12:40pm ET.

Analysts have been expecting a substantial convergence in earnings growth between the upper echelon of megacap tech and the rest of Corporate America in the quarters to come.

This update from JPMorgan casts doubt on the potential for a broad-based cyclical recovery in earnings. And a closer look at those sturdy profit estimates reveals just how reliant they are on an AI boom that may have reached its best-before date. 

“Overall, fiscal year estimates are holding up better than historical trends would imply,” write Terence Malone and Rob Bate, members of the equity product management group at Barclays. “The resiliency of fiscal year 2024 estimates is still solely attributable to Big Tech; without these six stocks, negative revisions to S&P 500 earnings per share would have been worse than usual at this point in the year.”

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Trump administration says tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports are coming... in 2027

After a year-long investigation into China’s tactics to bolster its domestic semiconductor industry, the US has determined that its practices are “unreasonable” and is going to do something about that in 18 months.

The Trump administration’s office of the US trade representative said today that it plans to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese semiconductors at a rate higher than 0% to be decided at least 30 days before June 23, 2027.

“China’s pursuit of its dominance goals has severely disadvantaged US companies, workers, and the U.S. economy generally through lessened competition and commercial opportunities and through the creation of economic security risks from dependencies and vulnerabilities,” per the USTR’s notice of action.

These levies, should they come to pass, would apply to silicon, diodes, transistors, and more.

US markets were completely unbothered by this revelation, likely because there is no immediate action against Chinese semi companies and therefore no disruption to business-as-usual. This represents a punting of a contentious matter, similar to how China delayed restrictions on rare earth shipments as part of a deal between Presidents Trump and Xi following their October meeting.

It’s another sign of a thaw in the US-China relations over the hot-button issue of semiconductors after President Trump gave Nvidia the go-ahead to sell its H200 chips to buyers in the world’s second-largest economy.

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ServiceNow strikes deal to buy cybersecurity firm Armis for $7.75 billion in cash

ServiceNow has agreed to acquire cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion in an all-cash deal, the largest purchase in the company's history.

That price tag is $750 million above what Bloomberg suggested was the top end of what Armis would cost just last week, and about $1.65 billion above what the company had been valued at in a November funding round.

Armis had been readying itself for an IPO, with many major investors looking to take a stake in the firm.

Instead, it’s now a key cog in the software platform company’s bid to lean on cybersecurity features to bolster its appeal to customers in a world in which the rise of AI adds to the potential threats of business disruptions and data breaches.

Per the press release:

As rapid AI adoption expands the attack surface for organizations, real-time visibility into vulnerabilities and actionable insights for what to fix first are critical to minimize risk and strengthen security posture. The acquisition of Armis will extend and enhance ServiceNow’s Security, Risk, and OT portfolios in critical and fast-growing areas of cybersecurity and drive increased AI adoption by strengthening trust across businesses’ connected environments.

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Novo Nordisk rallies after FDA weight loss pill approval

Novo Nordisk’s US-listed shares are up 7% in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the US Food and Drug Administration approved its Wegovy weight loss pill on Monday evening.

Now the first pill of its kind to receive approval from the regulator, Novo’s Wegovy pill is expected to launch in the US in early January 2026, and awaits the European Medicines Agency and other regulatory authorities’ approval after submitting for review in the second half of 2025, per the company’s press release. The 1.5 milligram starting dose of the pill will be sold at an introductory price of $149 a month.

“The pill is here. With today's approval of the Wegovy® pill, patients will have a convenient, once-daily pill that can help them lose as much weight as the original Wegovy® injection,” said Mike Doustdar, president and CEO of Novo Nordisk.

The approval was based on Novo’s Oasis 4 trial, which found participants who took 25 milligram doses of Wegovy pills daily lost 16.6% of their body weight over a 64 week period.

The approval will give Novo — which lost more than 50% of its market cap this year after Eli Lilly took the crown in weekly US prescriptions for injectable weight-loss drugs with its product Zepbound — a first-mover advantage in the expanding market. Lilly, which is down some 1% in pre-market trading today, has said its own oral drug orforglipron could be approved by March 2026.

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