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The one group of people in markets who aren’t worrying about a recession

Earnings per share estimates are following a normal path ahead of the third-quarter reporting period, and 2025 profit forecasts are still going up.

Yiwen Lu

Corporate profitability is tethered to consumer welfare.

When estimated earnings per share (or EPS, a key measure of a company’s profitability) are revised higher, it’s generally a sign of solid economic times: workers have more more money to spend, so corporations make more. Vice versa for negative revisions, which suggest an economic soft patch where people are reducing spending and profits slide.

Thus, when everyone in the market is supposedly worrying about a bleak economic outlook, as has been the case lately, we should expect to see more downward pressure of EPS estimates. But the latest data compiled by FactSet suggests that analysts think that the economy is poised to keep chugging along. 

For all S&P 500 companies, bottom-up EPS estimates — that is, an aggregation of the company-by-company forecasts — for the third quarter of 2024 decreased by 2.8% from June 30 to August 31. These estimates go down heading into a reporting period, only for companies to then exceed expectations on a lowered bar. One quant once slammed earnings season as “cheating season” for this very reason.

But is a 2.8% cut to EPS estimates unusually large?

FactSet senior earnings analyst John Butters calculated the average decline of EPS estimates over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years and found that these ranged from 2.3% to 3.0%, meaning that the latest number sat fell around the middle of the range. 

What’s more, expectations about the future further down the road are still getting sunnier. Butters also noted that while during the first two months of the quarter, EPS estimates for the third quarter dropped, analysts bumped up their EPS estimates for calendar year 2025 by 0.3%.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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