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Hemp grows at Murray State University’s hemp field in Murray, Kentucky (Bill Clark/Getty Images)

Lawmakers slip hemp THC ban in funding bill

A bill to fund the government low-key banned weed seltzers.

Tucked in the funding bill that will end the longest government shutdown in US history is a ban on hemp-derived THC products, a growing but controversial product line for the US pot industry.

The funding bill includes a provision that would, by late 2026, ban hemp-derived THC products in the US, which range from sketchy joints sold at gas stations to THC seltzers made by public companies or venture-backed startups.

The 2018 Farm Bill legalized hemp plants containing less than 0.3% THC but didn’t regulate finished products, allowing companies to extract and concentrate THC to create seltzers, gummies, and other products that have similar potency as marijuana — only one is federally legal and the other is not. That is why a hemp-derived THC seltzer can be found in many liquor stores and not just a licensed cannabis dispensary.

Some in the weed industry saw it as an opportunity for growth in the absence of federal cannabis reform, while others worry those products and the companies selling them are taking market share without the same onerous regulatory hurdles. The booze industry has also been split on the issue: alcohol brands supported the hemp ban while distributors opposed it.

Publicly-traded companies listed on major exchanges cannot sell marijuana in the US, but some Nasdaq-listed Canadian weed companies, like Tilray and Canopy Growth, have in recent years begun selling hemp-derived THC seltzers as a way to enter the US market without being delisted.

In a July earnings call, Tilray executives said hemp-derived THC “is a tremendous opportunity.” On Tuesday, Tilray issued a statement condemning the hemp provision in the bill.

“The hemp language buried within the government funding bill is misguided, out of touch with consumer interests, and misplaced in legislation where it does not belong,” Tilray executive Sam Garfinkel said.

Other Canadian operators have been more cautious. Cronos Group CEO Michael Ryan Gorenstein told analysts in March that hemp-derived THC “feels more like a short-term opportunity that’s probably relatively high risk.”

Some American cannabis companies — such as Green Thumb, the largest holding in the benchmark AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF — have also invested in hemp-derived THC beverages. Still, the ban will likely be a tailwind for American cannabis operators, said Frederico Gomes, director of institutional research in life sciences at ATB Capital Markets.

It is estimated that hemp-derived THC products generate about the same amount of sales in the US as the regulated market, Gomes said. “We believe a federal ban on intoxicating hemp products would deliver a substantial tailwind to publicly traded multi-state operators, driving higher sales and improved margins,” he said.

Politically homeless

The ban on hemp-derived THC underscores the industry’s struggle to find political advocates.

Art Massolo, president of the US Hemp Roundtable, said the industry will work over the coming weeks to establish a path forward before the ban takes effect in a year. Im bullish that we are going to get the hearts and minds of legislators aligned with consumers in our country, said Massolo, who is also vice president of business development at Cycling Frog, a hemp-derived THC seltzer brand.

Democrats have typically been more sympathetic to the cannabis industry, but most of them represent places where it’s already legal on a state level. Several of them voted to table the amendments seeking to remove the hemp ban.

Republicans have historically been more aligned with moral arguments against weed reform. While a contingent of supporters inside the administration and in Congress has made some in the industry hopeful, it has yet to manifest in any industry-friendly policy changes.

Meanwhile, American cannabis operators struggle with limited access to banking, an unfriendly tax code, and high levels of debt without the benefit of bankruptcy protections.

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Memory stocks tumble after Seagate warns on difficulty of meeting demand, bond yields edge higher

Memory stocks are cratering on Monday after media reports indicating that Seagate Technology Holdings CEO Dave Mosley warned that it would “just take too long” to boost capacity to meet AI-fueled demand.

Micron, Sandisk, and Western Digital are down in addition to Seagate.

Another place to look to help explain the group’s sudden travails (lumping together flash, storage, and high-bandwidth): memory stocks have displayed an elevated level of momentum, and momentum stocks have generally come under acute pressure during sudden bond market sell-offs.

Mosley’s answer, delivered at a JPMorgan conference, is worth reading in full, as the summarized media reports miss some of the nuance (emphasis added):

What our customers are driving us for right now is more exabytes. And we believe that the way to get the most exabytes is to take our talented teams and really go through these technology transitions. We're targeting mid-20s percent growth, which is enormous CAGR. And the only way we're going to get there is to be able to go through those technology transitions, if you will, to take a 3 terabyte per platter product to a 4 terabyte per platter to a 5 terabyte per platter year over year over year. And so that's really the way we're driving it. If we took the teams off and started building new factories or bringing up new machines, it would just take too long. You would end up more capacity, if you will, but then you'd slow the rate of growth on that technology. So back to your question directly, the wildcard really is in unit capacity for disk drives, which we again could be fairly flexible with once we package those heads and media. That gets down to more customer diversification and edge and edge AI and all those use cases, which I think could come someday. So we would take the heads and media that we have planned and divert them somewhere else should those applications take hold.

To grossly oversimplify Mosley’s answer, he’s saying that in a resource-constrained environment, technology improvements are the better way to meet demand than building out more capacity.

Reasonable folks can quibble about how negative these remarks really are for the industry.

On one hand, not getting over their skis on capex is something that, all else equal, would protect profitability over time and avoid the boom-bust cycles that have plagued the industry.

On the other hand, that gives more time for competitors (especially those from China) to try to step in and meet the market’s appetite for memory. To that end, Changxin Memory Technologies is posting massive growth as it readies for an IPO.

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Lumentum, Coherent fall after hedge fund manager Aschenbrenner dumps his holdings

Shares of Lumentum and Coherent plunged Monday after Leopold Aschenbrenner, ex-OpenAI researcher turned investor, disclosed his Situational Awareness fund exited its holdings in those companies during the first quarter.

By the afternoon, Lumentum was down 11% and Coherent was down over 6%. The losses are relatively small compared to the over 120% and 80% gains the AI infrastructure companies had put up, respectively, since January.

The two companies are developers of phonetics and optical equipment, which help data centers and AI hyperscalers transmit data.

Aschenbrenner’s firm, Situational Awareness, is making major market ripples today, also sending shares of T1 Energy soaring on news he bought the stock.

He also made a bearish bet against Nvidia, which recently invested $4 billion ($2 billion each) into Lumentum and Coherent.

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T1 Energy spikes on record call buying after Situational Awareness reveals 3.6% stake

T1 Energy is soaring after a 13F filing released this morning showed Situational Awareness held a 3.6% position in the solar and battery storage company at the end of Q1.

The position makes the hedge fund one of the 10 biggest owners of T1, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Situational Awareness has become a closely followed fund because of how well it’s done in the AI era and who it’s run by: former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, who’s only in his mid-20s!

(In fact, there was much consternation across X on Friday that the fund’s 13F wasn’t released ahead of the weekend.)

Call volumes in T1 are absolutely exploding as traders look to play follow-the-Leopold: they’re running at 52,501 less than 90 minutes into the trading day, already a one-day record for the stock.

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