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Max Knoblauch2h

Lucid continues its autumn rout, hitting a fresh all-time low following a price target cut by Stifel

It’s been a rough 48 days for luxury EV maker Lucid, which fell to a fresh all-time low on Monday following a price target cut by analysts at Stifel.

Stifel lowered its Lucid price target to $17, from $21, with analyst Stephen Gengaro writing that the company will likely require additional capital over the next few years. According to Stifel’s note, published Monday, Lucid’s production is improving but it’s still in the “prove-it-to-me” stage, and vehicles that could elevate sales volumes are “likely two years away.”

Last week, Lucid announced that it plans to raise $875 million through a private offering of convertible senior notes due in 2031. The company lowered its production outlook and reported negative free cash flow of $955 million in its third quarter.

Since the end of the EV tax credit on September 30 — which Lucid’s pricey vehicles only qualified for through leasing loopholes — its shares are down more than 40%. Zooming out, Lucid’s stock has shed 98% of its value from its 2021 highs amid peak electric vehicle optimism.

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Assets tied to the riskiest parts of the market and the economy are getting dumped in unison

If you’re looking for things to worry about, this combination of risk appetite souring on thematic, volatile stocks at the same time as companies that are in the business of giving money to less creditworthy companies should probably be near the top of the list.

Water Squeezed From Earth

Dell Double Downgrade

Dell dives on double downgrade from Morgan Stanley

JPMorgan analysts, on the other hand, have a much different view.

Matt Phillips3h

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Peter Thiel’s hedge fund cut its stake in Tesla by 76%

Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro, has cut its stake in Elon Musk’s Tesla by 76%, according to new filings. At the end of Q3, it held 65,000 shares of the stock, down from 272,613 at the end of Q2. Thiel and Musk are longtime friends who famously cofounded PayPal together and are part of the so-called PayPal Mafia.

The filing also showed that Thiel Macro exited its entire position in Nvidia. The fund’s top holdings are now Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla, valued at roughly $20 million, $25 million, and $29 million, respectively.

“Hang on to your Tesla stock,” Musk recently told investors at the company’s annual shareholder meeting, where they approved his $1 trillion pay package. Thiel, or at least the fund bearing his name, apparently didn’t listen.

markets

Amazon launches $12 billion bond sale as AI boom fuels need for capital

That giant sucking sound you hear is the AI boom continuing to pull in capital.

Per Bloomberg, Amazon is launching a six-part bond sale, its first new issue since November 2022.

The firm is aiming to raise $12 billion with a series of maturities ranging from three to 40 years.

Per Bloomberg sources familiar with the matter, the offering is for “general corporate purposes,” but in today’s day and age, that’s basically tantamount to financing ambitious AI investments.

The likes of Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet have recently tapped the market or announced plans to do so. Credit risk modestly starting to creep into the AI trade as issuance explodes has been a contributor to the sharp pullback in speculative stocks, many of which are highly levered to that theme.

“Even boasting some of the strongest balance sheets and highest ratings among corporate issuers, software and services providers’ increased spending and borrowing have widened their bond spreads, with some facing downgrades,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Robert Schiffman and Alex Reid wrote. “Though spreads are wider, the risk of significant widening, for most, appears contained.”

In their view, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta are best positioned, while the picture is less positive for Oracle.

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J. Edward Moreno5h

Novo drops price for introductory GLP-1 doses, undercutting its competitors

Novo Nordisk slashed the cash-pay price for starting doses of its diabetes and weight-loss shots, Ozempic and Wegovy, in a bold move to boost sales after it’s lost ground in the GLP-1 market to Eli Lilly and compounders.

Starting Monday, the introductory doses for self-pay patients will be priced at $199 a month, the Danish pharmaceutical giant said. That's about the same price as the copycat versions sold by Hims & Hers and others.

After the first two months of treatment, a monthly dose of Novo’s shots goes up to $349 a month, compared to the $499 monthly price tag the shots previously had. Eli Lilly’s cash-pay price for a low dose of its weight-loss shot Zepbound is $349 a month, rising to $499 for higher doses.

The shots are available online via Novo’s direct-to-consumer pharmacy, NovoCare, as well as through its partners, which include Costco and telehealth companies like Ro and Weight Watchers. Novo and Lilly have embraced DTC sales channels in the past year as a way to cut out middlemen and reduce prices for patients not using insurance.

Novo, which was the first to bring GLP-1s to market, has been outpaced in sales by Lilly this year. It’s been competing with Lilly’s more effective drugs, as well as cheaper compounded versions made by companies like Hims.

Both Lilly and Novo reached a deal with the Trump administration to cut the price of their blockbuster drugs starting next year.

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