The big shift in the US economic backdrop

The ability to add supply ahead of schedule to an energy-hungry AI boom drove a massive earnings beat for power plant builder Argan in Q4.

In the three months ended January, Argan’s adjusted earnings per share of $3.47 crushed the consensus estimate for $1.98, while revenues of $262 million modestly exceeded the consensus call for $255 million.

Following this release, JPMorgan analyst Michael Fairbanks hiked his price target to a Wall Street high of $550 (from $370) and upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “neutral.”

Goldman Sachs also hiked its price target to $518 from $399 in the wake of these results, maintaining a “buy” rating on the shares.

Management attributed the strong profitability to its project mix and execution, including reaching “substantial completion” on its Trumbull Energy Center project early. This natural gas plant supplies energy to the PJM region, the largest US grid operator, at a time when the nation’s spending on data centers has recently overtaken office expenditures.

“Our power grid is under increasing strain, rapid growth in AI and data centers, electrification of everything, the need to replace aging power facilities and years of underinvestment in power infrastructure are driving urgent demand for new reliable power generation capacity,” CEO David Watson said on the conference call.

President Trump said that he will give Iran another 10 days to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, postponing the strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that he had threatened last weekend. Markets have been broadly muted on the deadline delay, however, with oil up moderately and stocks slightly in the red in early trading Friday.

Not long after markets closed Thursday, the president posted on Truth Social that he will pause “Energy Plant destruction” for 10 days until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET, at the request of the Iranian government, adding that talks are “going very well.” Iranian mediators told The Wall Street Journal that they hadn’t requested the delay. Oil prices fell briefly on the news but snapped back within minutes, with Brent crude futures now up 2% to $110 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude also up 2% to around $96 a barrel.

Global stock markets are mixed with uncertainty around any actual ceasefire prospects: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI both closed around 0.4% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.4% on Friday. Meanwhile, Europe’s STOXX 600 is down 0.9% this morning, with other major indexes across the region also lower. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, at 7 a.m. ET.

Unity Software is up around 15% in premarket trading on Friday after the gaming software company announced preliminary results for Q1 2026 that were above analyst guidance, largely driven by its Vector AI ad engine.

Per Unity’s statement released after the bell on Thursday, the company now expects Q1 sales to fall between $505 million and $508 million, above its guidance of $480 million to $490 million and ahead of analyst expectations of $494 million (compiled by FactSet). The company also now forecasts adjusted EBITDA to land between $130 million and $135 million, topping its guidance for $105 million to $110 million and representing a 58% rise from last year.

In the preliminary report, Unity President and CEO Matt Bromberg highlighted Vector, its AI ad tool that matches players with games, delivering “better long term results” for its advertisers as a key driver. The company expects ~$352 million from its Grow segment, which includes Vector.

Unity also announced that it will be exiting its ironSource Ads Network starting April 30, which has waned of late to represent only 11% of total revenue growth in the previous quarter. In addition, Unity has engaged a financial adviser to divest its Supersonic game publishing business, noting that these changes will drive “faster revenue growth, increased Adjusted EBITDA, and higher Adjusted EBITDA margins.”

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 10.9% from its high of 24,019.99 — reached during intraday trading on October 29 — putting the tech-heavy benchmark conclusively into a “correction.”

A correction is Wall Street’s term of art for a sell-off that’s graver than a garden-variety slump, but not quite as dire as a bear market. (A bear market commences when prices are down 20% from a peak.)

While the proximate cause in the Nasdaq turndown seems to be the war — the Composite is down more than 5% since the start of the conflict on February 28 — it’s worth noting that the index had been stalled out for three months prior to that.

At least Nasdaq investors aren’t alone: the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped into a correction last Friday. The S&P 500 has held up better, relatively speaking, though it, too, is down more than 7% from its intraday high of 7,002.28, which it touched on January 28.