markets

8/6/24

“Turnaround Tuesdays” are a thing — and we’re seeing one right now

Should you buy stocks the day after a big drop? The answer, in general, is maybe.

But statistically speaking, the odds are in tilted in your favor being long the stock market if that bad day happened to be a Monday.

The SPDR S&P 500 Trust (which tracks the benchmark US stock index) has tended to rise 1.2% on Tuesday following drops of at least 2% on Monday, according to Bespoke Investment Group. (SPY was up about 1.3% today as of the writing of this post.)

“There’s a reason the term ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ exists,” they write.

2% Drops forward — Bespoke Investment Group

Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, fine-tuned the parameters behind a Tuesday bounce and came up with similar results. When the S&P 500 has fallen on a Thursday, Friday, and then by at least 2% on the ending Monday, those Tuesday returns have averaged 1.6% (and been positive 21 of 31 times).

“This pattern works so well that long stocks on Tuesday in 2008 made money even as the S&P 500 dropped more than 50% that year,” he added.

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markets

10h

Robinhood, AppLovin, and Emcor pop on announcement of addition to S&P 500

Shares of Robinhood Markets, AppLovin, and Emcor are all rallying in post-market trading on Friday upon news that they’re being added to the S&P 500.

Shares of the brokerage popped 7.2%, the adtech company rose 7.8%, and the construction company was up a more modest 2.7% in the minutes following the announcement.

(Robinhood Markets, Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Strategy, another stock rumored to be in the running for inclusion in the benchmark US stock index that has been passed over, sank 2.5% in postmarket trading.

Nia Warfield, Luke Kawa

S&P 500 falls as rate-cut optimism fizzles

The S&P 500 gave up early gains to close down 0.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 eked out a 0.1% advance and the Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 0.5%.

Brown bear on a rock

markets

12h

Kenvue plunges after reports suggest RFK Jr. may try to link prenatal Tylenol use to autism

Kenvue sank 15% Friday after a WSJ report said Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may attempt to link prenatal Tylenol use to autism in an upcoming government report.

Kenvue, the maker of Tylenol and formerly a division of Johnson & Johnson prior to a 2023 spin-out, pushed back, saying the science shows “no causal link” between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism, and pointed to FDA and medical groups that agree on the drug’s safety.

The FDA itself has found no “clear evidence” of harm but advises pregnant women to consult providers before taking OTC meds.

The report is also expected to float a folate-derived therapy as a potential treatment.

Tylenol is just the latest well-established medication to face scrutiny under Kennedy, who has already stirred controversy by reshaping vaccine policy and amplifying doubts about mRNA shots.

Kenvue shares are now down over 18% year-to-date.

RFK Jr., HHS to Link Autism to Tylenol Use in Pregnancy and Folate Deficiencies

RFK Jr.

The FDA itself has found no “clear evidence” of harm but advises pregnant women to consult providers before taking OTC meds.

The report is also expected to float a folate-derived therapy as a potential treatment.

Tylenol is just the latest well-established medication to face scrutiny under Kennedy, who has already stirred controversy by reshaping vaccine policy and amplifying doubts about mRNA shots.

Kenvue shares are now down over 18% year-to-date.

markets

13h

Lucid surges following 6 days of losses after headlines misidentify Cantor Fitzgerald’s lower split-adjusted price target as a good thing

It’s been a shortened week, but still a rough one for Lucid. Investor blowback to the luxury EV maker’s 1-for-10 reverse stock split has sent shares to all time lows this week.

After six straight days of closing lower, Wall Street appears to have decided enough is enough and is loading up on Lucid shares on Friday, sending them up 13% in recent trading. As of 2:10pm eastern, Lucid trading volumes were at more than 240% of their 30 day average.

Some of the move could be attributed to traders reading headlines that don’t take into consideration Lucid’s reverse split. Cantor Fitzgerald on Friday slapped a new price target on Lucid of $20, compared to its previous target of $3. Some news outlets (not us!) presented that as an increase. The problem: With the 1-for-10 reverse split in effect, a comparable price target would have been $30. The new $20 target is actually... a cut.

Palantir slips under 50-day moving average, amid momo reversal

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