Luke Kawa7/29/24

Major US stock indexes go nowhere; small caps slump

The S&P 500 closed up 0.1% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% while the Russell 2000 hit a speed bump, falling 1.1% on the day.

It was a relatively quiet session with total volumes off about 10% from their trailing one-month average as traders await a bevy of market-moving catalysts on deck. This week, we’ll get a ton of US labor market data, the Federal Reserve meets, and a significant chunk of the S&P 500 is due to report earnings, including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft.

Consumer discretionary was far and away the best-performing S&P sector ETF, up 1.7% thanks in large part to a 5.6% surge in shares of Tesla. Energy was at the bottom of the table as commodity prices hit their lowest level of 2024.

McDonald’s was a big gainer on earnings, up 3.7% as investors warmed to its plan to refocus on value offerings after suffering a decline in same-store sales.

The slump in small caps was punctuated by a decline in smaller US financial institutions, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF off 2.1% in its worst day since late May.

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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