Markets
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Matt Phillips

Michael Burry flags bearish technical pattern in Palantir, says he’s “working on something”

Trader and widely followed Substacker Michael Burry, once of “The Big Short” fame, called out a bearish technical trend for Palantir in a post on X last night.

He spotlighted what he interprets as a “head and shoulders” pattern in the stock, considered a bearish omen among the international community of chart-watchers.

Along with that, he’s also mapped out Fibonacci retracement levels, another popular technical analysis tool to identify key prices the shares might fall to or rebound from. Burry’s chart highlights the level around $84 as the “Next Support” for the stock and $54.50 as the “Landing Area.”

Nobody really knows if such a pattern dooms the stock to a further sell-off.

But you don’t have to be a dyed-in-the-wool chartist to see that the momentum in Palantir’s stock has clearly broken down, despite the fact the company’s operational performance has been very strong.

The stock has been trading below its 200-day moving average since late last month and it’s down about 30% from the all-time closing of $207.18 it hit in early November.

Cassandra Unchained on X: "I am working on something $PLTR. https://t.co/PPETfScTkE" / X

Cassandra Unchained on X: "I am working on something $PLTR. https://t.co/PPETfScTkE" / X

Along with that, he’s also mapped out Fibonacci retracement levels, another popular technical analysis tool to identify key prices the shares might fall to or rebound from. Burry’s chart highlights the level around $84 as the “Next Support” for the stock and $54.50 as the “Landing Area.”

Nobody really knows if such a pattern dooms the stock to a further sell-off.

But you don’t have to be a dyed-in-the-wool chartist to see that the momentum in Palantir’s stock has clearly broken down, despite the fact the company’s operational performance has been very strong.

The stock has been trading below its 200-day moving average since late last month and it’s down about 30% from the all-time closing of $207.18 it hit in early November.

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Luke Kawa

The tech sector’s biggest winners and losers are swapping places

It’s bizarro world for the tech sector.

Software stocks, the market’s collective whipping boy in 2026 in light of the presumptive threat of AI disruption, are continuing to recover on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the biggest winners of the AI boom this year — memory stocks, benefiting from intense shortages — are taking their turn in the red.

The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF’s gains are being led by Datadog, a rare case of a software stock rising after reporting earnings this season, with heavyweights Oracle and ServiceNow outperforming the industry. On the other side of the spectrum, Micron, Sandisk, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Western Digital are selling off.

The seesaw of modern markets often requires that as one group’s fortunes inflect positively after a long drubbing, so too must a high-flyer have its wings clipped.

That is, if you’re a portfolio manager long memory and short software stocks, and enough investors are willing to catch a falling knife and buy the beaten-down group, staying market-neutral and reducing this position would require you to purchase software and dump some memory stocks.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Paramount once again enhances its Warner Bros. bid without boosting its per-share offer

Paramount continues to do everything except the one thing that would vault its Warner Bros. Discovery bid into a winning position.

On Tuesday, the company beefed up its bid for WBD by adding an incremental payout if its deal closing were to be too slow, as well as offering to cover breakup expenses if WBD’s tie-up with Netflix were to end.

But again, Paramount stopped short of raising its $30-per-share value.

Getting into the nitty gritty, Paramount said it will pay a shareholders a “ticking fee” of $0.25 per share for every quarter the deal hasn’t closed after the end of 2026. (For comparison, Netflix and WBD expect their deal to close 12 to 18 months from when their merger deal was struck, which was December 5 of last year.)

Paramount also pledged to fund the $2.8 billion termination fee to Netflix, which has been a sticking point for the WBD board. Paramount said it would also eliminate a possible $1.5 billion refinancing cost of debt.

The company’s last attempt to boost its offer included a $40.4 billion personal guarantee from billionaire Larry Ellison, the father of Paramount CEO David Ellison.

Event contracts show a slight boost in Paramount’s odds to end up in control of Warner Bros. following the announcement, though Netflix is still firmly the favorite.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

PARAMOUNT ENHANCES ITS SUPERIOR $30 PER SHARE ALL-CASH OFFER FOR WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY AND PROVIDES UPDATE ON REGULATORY PROGRESS | Paramount

But again, Paramount stopped short of raising its $30-per-share value.

Getting into the nitty gritty, Paramount said it will pay a shareholders a “ticking fee” of $0.25 per share for every quarter the deal hasn’t closed after the end of 2026. (For comparison, Netflix and WBD expect their deal to close 12 to 18 months from when their merger deal was struck, which was December 5 of last year.)

Paramount also pledged to fund the $2.8 billion termination fee to Netflix, which has been a sticking point for the WBD board. Paramount said it would also eliminate a possible $1.5 billion refinancing cost of debt.

The company’s last attempt to boost its offer included a $40.4 billion personal guarantee from billionaire Larry Ellison, the father of Paramount CEO David Ellison.

Event contracts show a slight boost in Paramount’s odds to end up in control of Warner Bros. following the announcement, though Netflix is still firmly the favorite.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

markets
Max Knoblauch

Harley-Davidson sinks on falling motorcycle sales, weaker-than-expected 2026 profit forecast

Harley-Davidson posted a loss per share more than twice as bad as Wall Street had expected in its fourth quarter. The company, which reported Q4 and full-year results on Tuesday, posted an adjusted loss of $2.44 per share, compared to Wall Street estimates of a $1.06 loss per share.

The motorcycle maker is contending with declining sales of, well, motorcycles. Shipments fell 4% in the fourth quarter from the year prior, while analysts had anticipated a 22% increase. Harley’s full-year gross margin was about 4 percentage points lower year over year, a decline the company said was driven by tariffs.

Harley CEO Artie Starrs called 2025 a “challenging year” and said the company is “taking deliberate actions to stabilize the business, restore dealer confidence, and align wholesale activity with retail demand.” Near-term results reflect those actions, Starrs said.

The year ahead didn’t offer much optimism for investors. For its motorcycle division, the company forecast a full-year operating income of between a $40 million loss and a $10 million profit. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expected $128 million in profit. The company said its full-year guidance could be impacted by a new strategic plan, set to be announced in May.

markets
Luke Kawa

Credo soars after preliminary Q3 revenues beat estimates and management projects annual sales growth of 200%

Credo Technology Group is earning itself some new believers.

The seller of active electrical cables (AECs) and other electrical connectivity solutions for data centers announced stellar Q3 preliminary sales results after the close on Monday, with guidance that calls for rapid growth to continue.

Shares are up about 15% as of 8 a.m. ET.

Management said Q3 revenues would range between $404 million and $408 million, above the upper end of its guidance and the $341 million forecast from Wall Street. Going forward, the company projects that revenues will grow in the mid-single digits quarter on quarter, propelling revenue growth up more than 200% year on year through its current fiscal year.

“We reaffirm CRDO as our Top Pick for 2026 and view this announcement positively given management’s continued execution with its AEC product offering and our underlying belief in the longevity of AECs,” wrote Needham & Co. analyst Quinn Bolton, who has a $220 price target on the shares. “At the Needham Growth Conference, management stated that they believe the industry is still in the early innings of the AEC adoption curve, pointing to only one customer that has fully deployed AECs across potential use cases (front-end networks, scale-out networks and switch racks) and stated that visibility continues to be strong over the next twelve months and beyond.”

Bolton boosted his sales outlook for Credo’s next fiscal year and the one after that following this news.

markets
Max Knoblauch

Spotify soars as Q4 monthly average user growth and gross margins set records

Music streamer — and soon to be physical book seller — Spotify reported impressive Q4 results on Tuesday that are sending shares up 15% in premarket trading.

Spotify said it added more than 38 million monthly active users, a quarterly record that brought its total to 751 million. Wall Street analysts polled by FactSet expected 744.7 million. The number of premium, paying subscribers grew 10% to 290 million, slightly better than estimates of 289.4 million. Revenue for the quarter rose 7% to €4.53 billion (~$5.4 billion), which fell broadly in line with estimates, while its 33.1% gross margin figure was also a new company record.

Looking ahead to the current quarter, Spotify forecast an addition of 8 million net monthly active users for a 759 million total (vs. the 752.7 million expected). The streamer guided for 293 million premium subscribers in Q1, compared to the 293.5 million consensus estimate.

The company, which raised its US subscription prices this month, expects to book €4.5 billion, or $5.36 billion, in Q1 revenues. Wall Street expected €4.58 billion, or $5.41 billion.

With the global population sitting at just over 8 billion per the latest estimates, Spotify’s new figures imply that roughly 1 in 11 people now uses the streamer each month.

Spotify monthly active user chart
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