markets

Luke Kawa1/26/26

Micron dips on report Samsung is taking the early lead in HBM4 supply

Shares of Micron are starting the week lower after Reuters reported that Samsung is poised to begin production of HBM4 chips — the new standard for high-bandwidth memory — next month, with the output heading to Nvidia.

South Korea’s SK Hynix fell 3% in local markets, while Samsung finished only marginally higher.

Pretty much all news about memory chips, from reported price hikes to production increases, has been treated as universally positive for all members of the triumvirate. This is the first time in recent memory we’ve seen some more idiosyncratic treatment of these names.

Perhaps this is just a bit of a cooling-off period after Micron’s 40% year-to-date gains through Friday. By all accounts, high-bandwidth memory is in tight supply, so there’ll be eager buyers for all the supply these companies are able to bring to market.

Following Micron’s blockbuster earnings report, Executive Vice President of Global Operations Manish Bhatia said that he anticipates starting to ship HBM4 chips in the second quarter.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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