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Luke Kawa

Morgan Stanley on Nvidia: “Everything should get better from here”

Was that... the bad part? Because after the insane profit growth that’s seen Nvidia beat earnings expectations for 10 consecutive quarters, becoming a $3 trillion company in the process, Morgan Stanley analysts think “everything should get better from here.”

The chip designer’s Q1 results and Q2 guidance underscored that any issues with the AI boom are not related to demand. The sticking points for Nvidia are how much and how fast the company can roll out new products that everyone wants, and who’s allowed to buy them.

“Nvidia is outgrowing expectations despite supply constraints, and is outgrowing competition by a larger magnitude,” wrote a team led by Joseph Moore, who affirmed the company as his top pick in the semi industry and cited improving rack supply, a massive backlog, and the potential for some bounce-back in its China business as positive news for the company going forward.

Nvidia spelled out that revenues would have been $2.5 billion higher if not for the H20 export ban that prevented sales to China from April 9 on. Despite that, and the $8 billion in sales it expects to forgo in the current quarter, its Q2 revenue forecast was virtually in line with estimates that many analysts thought were too high and hadn’t adequately factored in China-linked headwinds.

“Without H20 ban, the company would have beaten guidance by over $3 billion for April,” Moore wrote. “We do believe that at current revenue levels there is significant unmet demand, so ongoing supply constraints could keep things better for longer.”

Moore boosted his price target on the stock to $170 from $160 and raised revenues and earnings estimates for both this year and the next.

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Nate Becker & Matt Phillips

Oil drops, yields fall, and stocks rise on reports the US has sent Iran a plan to end war

Oil, stock, and bond markets flipped as investors continued to digest the latest reports on a potential wind-down of the war in Iran, with The New York Times reporting that the US has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the conflict.

Crude oil futures dropped sharply, from around $92 a barrel to about $88.50. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys dropped, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF shot up after-hours.

From the Times:

“The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.”

Some individual shares had outsized reactions to the news in the postmarket session. Gold miners Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont, which have been battered since the war started, rose. Ammonia maker CF Industries — which had risen on expectations of rising prices for fertilizer products linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — fell.

US natural gas producers such as APA Corporation, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy also declined after-hours.

The Times report also said that “for now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently.”

United States Said to Have Sent Iran a Plan to End the Middle East War

Crude oil futures dropped sharply, from around $92 a barrel to about $88.50. Yields on two-year and 10-year Treasurys dropped, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF shot up after-hours.

From the Times:

“The United States has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East, according to two officials briefed on the diplomacy, reflecting the Trump administration’s eagerness to find an offramp from the conflict as it grapples with its economic fallout.

It was unclear how widely the plan, delivered by way of Pakistan, had been shared among Iranian officials and whether Iran was likely to accept it as a basis for negotiations. Nor was it clear whether Israel, which has been bombing Iran together with the United States, was on board with the proposal.

But the delivery of the plan showed that the administration was ramping up efforts to conclude a war, now in its fourth week, that has drawn in several other countries.”

Some individual shares had outsized reactions to the news in the postmarket session. Gold miners Freeport-McMoRan and Newmont, which have been battered since the war started, rose. Ammonia maker CF Industries — which had risen on expectations of rising prices for fertilizer products linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — fell.

US natural gas producers such as APA Corporation, EOG Resources, Devon Energy, and Diamondback Energy also declined after-hours.

The Times report also said that “for now, there is no indication that the war will let up imminently.”

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GameStop seesaws on Q4 results

The video game and collectibles retailer just reported Q4 results.

Luke Kawa, Max Knoblauch8h
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Stocks close lower after fluctuating as traders digest war updates

Stocks pared steeper losses on hopes of US-Iran talks, but were unable to maintain gains on reports that the US is deploying 3,000 troops to the Middle East.

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markets
Matt Phillips

Amid Mideast conflict, investors cling to faith in the AI build-out

Data center build-out stocks showed impressive resilience to the slump that hit big indexes Tuesday.

In fact, construction companies, server system makers, fiber-optic technology stocks, and memory makers — all cornerstones of the AI trade — were having a pretty good day, suggesting the market sees the wave of AI construction continuing, war or no war.

Optical stocks seen as crucial to efficiently transmitting the flood of information AI data centers both produce and depend on were surging. Corning, Lumentum, Coherent, and Ciena Corp. ramped.

Server rack makers HP Enterprise and Dell jumped. Construction and engineering companies like Sterling Infrastructure, MasTec, and Comfort Systems USA, which have benefited from the growth in building data centers, posted solid gains.

Hard disk drive makers Seagate Technology Holdings and Western Digital were also positive, though other memory plays such as Sandisk and Micron were in the red.

It was an impressive display of positivity on a day when the S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and the Nasdaq 100 (Invesco QQQ Trust) were both fluttering between positive and negative territory for completely understandable reasons.

After all, the 82nd Airborne is heading to the Middle East, suggesting the US is considering sending troops into Iran. US crude oil is back above $90 a barrel and climbing, as the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially shut.

Additionally, the problems in the private credit market continue, with major fund managers preventing investors from withdrawing all the money they would like to. We even had a weak auction for US two-year Treasury notes — investors seemed to think the offered yield might not be sufficient to offset inflation risks stirred up by the war — that sent short-term interest rates up sharply.

But apparently it will take more than all that for investors to worry that the AI build-out may be halted, delayed, or even just trimmed back.

markets
Nate Becker

Stocks get a bump on CNN report that Iran is willing to listen to proposals to end war

Stocks got a small bump midday Tuesday as CNN reported on what appeared to be a softening in Iran’s position toward ending the war in the Middle East. 

The S&P 500 briefly turned green following the report, before paring some of those gains in the afternoon.

From the CNN report: 

“An Iranian source told CNN on Tuesday that there had been ‘outreach’ between the United States and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to ‘sustainable’ proposals to end the war.

‘There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days, but nothing that has reached the level of full-on negotiations,’ the source said. ‘Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war can be reached.’”

Markets had zoomed Monday as President Trump said there had been discussions between the two nations, but they gave back some of their gains after Iran starkly denied the claim. Markets seemed to read this new reporting as a softening of Iran’s position.

Iranian source says there has been US "outreach" and Tehran "willing to listen"

Iranian source says there has been US "outreach" and Tehran "willing to listen"

“An Iranian source told CNN on Tuesday that there had been ‘outreach’ between the United States and Tehran and that Iran is willing to listen to ‘sustainable’ proposals to end the war.

‘There has been outreach between the United States and Iran, initiated by Washington, in recent days, but nothing that has reached the level of full-on negotiations,’ the source said. ‘Messages have been received through various intermediaries to scope out whether an agreement to end the war can be reached.’”

Markets had zoomed Monday as President Trump said there had been discussions between the two nations, but they gave back some of their gains after Iran starkly denied the claim. Markets seemed to read this new reporting as a softening of Iran’s position.

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