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CEO Jensen Huang
Nvidia cofounder, president, and CEO Jensen Huang (L) attends a ceremony during which he was awarded with an honorary doctorate degree at Linkoeping University (Stefan Jerrevang/Getty Images)

Nvidia rallies after Q1 revenue beat

The chip designer’s hotly anticipated Q1 earnings have sent shares higher in after-hours trading.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia’s Q1 results are out, and the short message is: sales weren’t a problem, but profitability was temporarily challenged thanks to the ban on H20 exports to China.

Adjusted earnings per share were $0.96, which includes an additional adjustment in light of a $4.5 billion impairment charge linked to the export ban. Nvidia’s typically adjusted EPS came in at $0.81. The consensus estimate was $0.93.

Revenues totaled $44.1 billion, compared with Wall Street’s estimate of $43.3 billion.

Adjusted gross margin was 71.3%, compared to the consensus estimate of 70.2%, which again, includes a similar added adjustment for the impairment charge and would have otherwise been 61%.

The stock is up more than 5% in the after-hours session. The options-implied earnings move for the stock is plus or minus 6.3%.

Guidance from the chip designer calls for revenues of $45 billion plus or minus 2% in the current quarter with adjusted gross margins of 72%, plus or minus 50 basis points. The former is a touch light, while the latter is a bit better than expected: Wall Street was looking for sales of $45.45 billion with an adjusted gross margin of 71.74%.

It’s difficult to parse the revenue guidance relative to expectations because Wall Street analysts are somewhat confused as to how much, or whether, their peers were adjusting for potential lost sales in China.

“We may be unable to create a competitive product for China’s data center market that receives approval from the US government,” Nvidia said in its 10-Q. “In that event, we would effectively be foreclosed from competing in China’s data center computing/compute market, with a material and adverse impact on our business, operating results, and financial condition.”

And that revenue forecast would be $8 billion higher if not for the H20 export ban, management said. The company is reportedly readying a new AI chip for sale to China next month.

“The 2Q outlook of about $45 billion in revenue is just $3 billion short of where consensus was prior to the rules on shipments to China, despite a loss of $8 billion in potential revenue,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada wrote. “This suggests strong demand for its products in other regions, including the new Blackwell chip.”

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Luke Kawa

BlackBerry is on one of its hottest rallies of all time

History suggests that BlackBerry does extremely well when 1) it’s considered to be pioneering a transformative technology, or 2) there’s widespread retail enthusiasm for stocks.

If you squint (or dream), you could argue that both are going on right now.

Shares of the once-upon-a-time smartphone giant are up more than 160% over the past three months. The only times the shares have had a hotter run of form than this are at the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and in early 2021 when was it part of the meme stock craze headlined by GameStop.

Let’s start with the easy part first — here’s Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel, on retail’s significant footprint in the shares’ rally:

“Retail traders are the new price setters in the market. May volumes across our retail cash equities and options platforms are currently tracking at record levels. Daily volumes on our cash platform are setting new highs and are on pace to finish nearly ~10% above the previous record established during the January 2021 meme-stock era.”

And then there’s the harder part, part of the story that the traders bidding up BlackBerry now are dreaming about: the QNX division, which offers software that the company is positioning as an operating system for robots.

QNX’s software has early uptake in the field of autonomous driving, with BlackBerry eyeing a much more widespread role: in April, it announced a partnership to deploy this technology on Nvidia’s robotics platform. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, for his part, has long been calling for agentic AI adoption to be followed by physical AI (i.e., robots).

In a QNX press release unveiling a report this week, the company argued that software, not hardware, is the real problem in terms of making sure robotics works.

I supposed it would be poetic, in a way, if the company at the leading edge of the smartphone revolution also plays a big role in the proliferation of robotics.

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Luke Kawa

Micron and Sandisk rally on new Street-high price targets from Susquehanna

Micron and Sandisk both hit fresh all-time highs in early trading after Susquehanna bestowed new Wall Street-high price targets on the two memory stocks.

Analyst Mehdi Hosseini upped his view on the former to $1,750 from $600, and to $3,250 from $2,000 for the latter.

“Supply is now expected to remain tight through 2027, sustaining elevated margins and thus warranting valuation re-rating,” he wrote, per Bloomberg.

It’s the fifth time in the past year that the average price target on Micron has gone up by more than 10% in a week. UBS’s Tim Arcuri more than tripled his price target on Micron earlier this week, and has already lost the title of “most bullish.”

But even as analysts are tripping over themselves to raise their price targets on these stocks, the ferocity of the rally in Micron has outpaced their best efforts.

The high-bandwidth memory specialist traded at a record premium to the consensus Wall Street price target this week, based on data going back to 2008.

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Okta soars on Q1 earnings beat, raised outlook driven by AI security demand

Okta shares are surging in early trading Friday after the identity security provider posted Q1 fiscal 2027 financial results that exceeded Wall Street estimates. The strong results are fueled by accelerating corporate demand for cybersecurity software, as well as the deployment of autonomous AI systems.

Key numbers:

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.91 compared to analysts estimate of $0.85.

  • Revenue of $765 million compared to an estimate of $752.7 million.

The company generated subscription revenue of $750 million, up 11% year over year. Okta also has $271 million in free cash flow, up from $238 million in the prior years quarter.

While standard cybersecurity software protects human workers, the latest catalyst sparking Oktas strong corporate performance is the rapid emergence of autonomous AI agents that can access sensitive corporate databases and interact with privileged executive accounts.

“AI agents are rapidly becoming a new workforce inside every organization, creating a wave of identities that must be secured and governed alongside human users,” said Todd McKinnon, CEO and cofounder of Okta. “We’re expanding our opportunity as the world’s leading independent and neutral identity provider and helping customers make identity the unified control plane for their secure agentic enterprise.”

Okta raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $3.185 billion and $3.205 billion, roughly in line with estimates of $3.18 billion. The company formally dropped its long-term projected non-GAAP tax rate from 26% down to 21%. This adjustment is a direct byproduct of the federal corporate tax frameworks under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

Shares of Okta have risen around 9% since the beginning of this year.

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HPE, SMCI surge after Dell’s Q1 beat on strong AI server demand

HP Enterprise and Super Micro Computer shares are surging in premarket trading, getting a big boost from rival Dell’s strong Q1 results.

Dell’s $16.1 billion in AI-optimized server sales for the quarter alone proved that enterprise data center demand is accelerating faster than Wall Street had anticipated. The company posted revenue of $43.8 billion, exceeding Street estimates of $35.5 billion. Management now sees full-year sales of about $167 billion, well above the $142 billion expected by analysts.

The read-through is particularly relevant for Super Micro, one of the largest suppliers of Nvidia-powered AI server systems, and HPE, which has been expanding its AI infrastructure and liquid-cooling offerings through its partnership with Nvidia.

The moves suggest investors view AI infrastructure as a broad spending cycle that benefits server makers across the entire ecosystem.

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