markets

Matt Phillips1/14/25

Morgan Stanley thinks betting sites are like ride-sharing apps

Is FanDuel Uber? And does that make DraftKings Lyft?

Morgan Stanley gaming analysts posited that the similar dynamics to ride-sharing apps — with one persistent dominant player, Uber — could be taking shape in the online sports-betting market, as FanDuel has been starting to pull ahead in market share. They wrote:

“The US market structure has increasingly narrowed toward a duopoly with FanDuel/DKNG controlling 80-85% of the sports betting market (70-75% overall with iGaming). However, Fanduel’s recent share gains coupled with higher win rates and margins at the same time that Draftkings’ share has plateaued with limited win rate upside have shifted the debate to whether the market structure will emulate rideshare where the #1 player (UBER) controls ~70% of market while #2 (LYFT) controls the remaining ~30%.”

That’s one way to interpret the wide performance gap between DraftKings and FanDuel parent Flutter Entertainment over the past year.

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Persian Gulf

Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, the energy crisis is far from over. Here’s what to watch for.

In a Q&A with Sherwood, commodities analyst Rory Johnston lays out how to better understand the oil market’s situation.

Matt Phillips23m

Everything has a reason to go up now that oil’s down*

*Exceptions include energy and chemicals stocks.

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Matt Phillips2h

Data center trade revived on Iran war ceasefire

Data center stocks leapt early Wednesday, as the Iran war ceasefire reinvigorated risk-taking aimed at the booming AI build-out.

A wide range of stocks related to building and powering data center shells, filling them with chips, servers, racks, and memory, and then connecting those racks to one another and users around the world bounced hard in early trading.

Memory stocks like Micron, Western Digital, Seagate Technology Holdings, and Sandisk — favorites of retail traders given their massive performance in recent years — climbed.

Traders seemed to price in durable demand for memory and other chips, with the companies that make the machines that actually make semiconductors rising sharply as well. Dutch semiconductor machinery giant ASML rose, as did Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA Corp.

Fiber-optic cable and connecting companies like Lumentum, Coherent, Corning, and Applied Optoelectronics — which had been on a run before the outbreak of Mideast hostilities — regained momentum.

And the construction and engineering companies — MasTec, Vertiv Holdings, Quanta Services, and Comfort Systems USA — that have been feasting on the cash pouring into data center building and engineering also jumped.

Max Knoblauch3h

Airlines and cruise stocks spike after oil plunges on 2-week ceasefire with Iran

Travel stocks are surging Wednesday following President Trump’s announcement on Tuesday evening of a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down about 16% as of 7 a.m. ET. Airlines, which have been pounded by higher jet fuel costs for more than a month now, moved in the opposite direction. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines were up more than 10% in premarket trading. Southwest Airlines and JetBlue also rose by high single digits. Three major US airlines (JetBlue, United, and Delta) raised baggage fees in recent days as fuel costs climbed.

Cruise stocks also rallied, with Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Royal Caribbean all up more than 7%.

markets

Max Knoblauch4h

Delta reports better-than-expected Q1 earnings, surges as oil plummets

Delta Air Lines reported its first-quarter results before markets opened on Wednesday. The carrier’s shares surged 12% in premarket trading.

Delta, which as of today will charge passengers $10 more per checked bag, reported:

Adjusted earnings of $0.64 per share, compared to the $0.58 per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet.
Adjusted operating revenue of $14.2 billion, compared to estimates of $14 billion.

Looking ahead, Delta said it expects Q2 earnings per share of between $1 and $1.50, below Wall Street estimates of $1.56 per share — which might be enough to disappoint investors if oil, one of the largest inputs for an airline’s fuel cost base, wasn’t tanking. Indeed, West Texas Intermediate crude futures are down more than 16% on Wednesday morning, following President Trump’s comments that he agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday evening. Delta did not give any full-year earnings guidance in its press release.

Like other carriers, Delta has taken a hit in recent weeks as oil — and jet fuel — prices spike amid the war in Iran. Significant delays, cancellations, and rebookings have also battered US airlines.

Delta, which is becoming an increasingly K-shaped airline, saw premium tickets grow 14% year over year in the first quarter, compared to 1% growth in main cabin tickets.

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