markets

Luke Kawa3/12/26

Never-ending stream of private credit conniptions weighs on financials

The steady drip of negative news on private credit is exacerbating the sell-off in stocks tied to the asset class and the broader financial sector.

Asset manager Blue Owl Capital is trading at its lowest level since October 2022, the month the S&P 500 bottomed. Its business development company, Blue Owl Capital Corp. — effectively its private credit arm — is likewise sinking, with a price-to-book ratio below 0.8. That suggests investors don’t think its loans are worth what the company has reported they’re worth (or are worried that they’ll be marked down in the future).

Glendon Capital Management is leveling that direct charge against the firm and others in the industry. In a presentation seen by the Financial Times, Glendon alleged that “private credit funds managed by Blue Owl and many of its rivals had ‘misrepresented’ loss rates in their portfolios and were sitting on ‘larger losses than reported.’"

This news comes after JPMorgan reportedly curbed some of its lending to private credit funds and reduced the estimated value of software loans in those portfolios, according to Bloomberg.

Other lowlights in financials:

Deutsche Bank, which revealed a $30 billion exposure to private credit in its annual report, is down nearly 8% as of 11:10 a.m. ET, on track for its biggest one-day loss since April 2025.
With this week’s losses, the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has erased its year-to-date gains, which were in excess of 13% as of early February.
Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors, flagged that the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is poised to deliver a Q1 drop in excess of 10%. Other years in which that fund tumbled by 10% or more in the first three months include 2001, 2008, 2009, and 2020 — a nearly comprehensive list of the most tumultuous periods for global markets in the 21st century.

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Matt Phillips3h

Enphase drops as guidance and results fail to impress investors

Enphase Energy fell in after-hours trading Tuesday as uninspiring Q2 guidance overshadowed better-than-expected numbers in its Q1 earnings report. The maker of solar power and battery equipment reported:

Sales of $282.9 million vs. the $282.3 million FactSet expectation.
Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.47 vs. the $0.43 consensus estimate.
Q2 guidance for revenue between $280 million and $310 million ($295 million at the midpoint) vs. the $294.9 million forecast.

Enphase was a sometimes popular retail trade of the Covid era, when federal tax credits and low interest rates led to a burst of activity for rooftop solar installation. Between the end of 2019 and 2022, the shares rose more than 1,000%.

But as interest rates rose — driven, in part, by both Fed hikes and worries the increases wouldn’t be enough to quell price growth — and Republicans stripped out key tax credits and subsidies for the solar sector from the federal budget, the shares tanked. They’ve lost nearly 90% of their value since peaking in December 2022, and have emerged as a favorite of short sellers. Roughly 20% of the company’s public float is now in the hands of bearish traders.

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Matt Phillips3h

Bloom Energy surges after reporting huge Q1 revenue beat, big guidance hike

Fuel cell maker and momentum trading favorite Bloom Energy surged late Tuesday after reporting Q1 earnings and revenue that trounced Wall Street expectations while ratcheting guidance higher. Here are the numbers:

Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $0.44 vs. the $0.12 expected by analysts, according to FactSet.
Revenue of $751.1 million vs. the $539.9 million consensus forecast.
Full-year EPS guidance of between $1.85 and $2.25 vs. previous guidance of between $1.33 and $1.48 and Wall Street expectations for $1.42.

Bloom Energy shares have been ripping in 2026. They’ve doubled this year, and were up sharply in April after the company announced that it was expanding a deal to supply its fuel cells to Oracle’s data centers. (Oracle also received warrants in April to buy Bloom stock as part of a previous deal.)

The rise of the stock — it’s up more than 1,200% over the last 12 months — has been driven by a simultaneous rise in market sentiment and expectations for business results. Analysts have lifted their full-year 2026 earnings expectations for Bloom by about 30% since the start of the year.

But even accounting for those improving fundamentals, the stock is still quite highly priced by conventional metrics, trading at a multiple of almost 120x earnings over the next 12 months and about 17x expected sales.

markets

Matt Phillips4h

Seagate soars on strong quarterly numbers, guidance far above expectations

Seagate Technology Holdings ripped late Tuesday after the maker of hard disk drives, relatively cheap data storage devices, reported better-than-expected quarterly numbers and guidance in its earnings report. Seagate reported:

Revenue of $3.11 billion vs. the $2.96 billion expectation from Wall Street analysts, per FactSet.
Adjusted earnings per share of $4.10 vs. the $3.51 anticipated on the Street.
EPS guidance of between $4.80 and $5.20 (midpoint $5.00) for the current quarter — which ends in June — vs. the $3.99 expectation.
Sales guidance of between $3.35 billion and $3.55 billion ($3.45 midpoint) for the current quarter vs. Wall Street’s expectation for $3.16 billion.

The sudden explosion of Seagate shares — and those of its disk-making rival, Western Digital — has been one of the more surprising outgrowths of the AI boom.

A little over a year ago, on April 8, 2025, Seagate shares had been essentially flat for over a decade. (They ended that day up 0.1% since the end of 2014.) Since then, they’re up roughly 800%, as the reality of seemingly endless AI-related demand for data storage has become plain.

Perhaps most impressive is that the pace of the gains is quickening. If the after-hours gains hold, Seagate is on track for April to be its the best month since October 2011.

Robinhood sinks after Q1 results trail estimates

The brokerage just reported quarterly results.

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Stocks fall as the AI trade slumps

Chip stocks dropped on a report that OpenAI missed key revenue and user targets, while oil climbed amid stalled peace talks.

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