markets

Luke Kawa11/25/24

No rain, big gains as coffee prices surge to 27-year high

Bad news for fans of high-quality coffee.

A dearth of rainfall in Brazil is causing commodity analysts and government agencies to curb their estimates for how many coffee beans will be produced and exported in the near term.

The price of arabica futures — the premium bean compared to the more common robusta grade — has soared to its highest level since May 1997 as its most important growing region in Brazil sees paltry precipitation. Both varieties of bean are up more than 60% this year.

Recent forecasts from the US Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brazil suggest year-end inventories will be at “an exceptionally low level,” according to Colin Fenton, 22V Research’s head of commodities research, who continues to recommend long positions in arabica coffee as well as raw sugar.

Last week, Nestle said it would keep raising its selling prices in light of this input cost pressure. The likes of Starbucks and Keurig Dr Pepper are also getting squeezed by this boom time for bean prices.

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Claire Yubin Oh17m

Oklo whipsaws amid BofA downgrade, accelerated future review process by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Shares of Oklo were volatile in early trading, falling as Bank of America downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy” before getting a short-lived jolt after the nuclear technology company said regulators accepted a key design report faster than anticipated. The stock is down about 3% as of 10:05 a.m. ET.

“Valuations now embed deployment ramps and discount rates we view as unrealistic at this stage of SMR [small modular reactor] adoption,” BofA analyst Dimple Gosai wrote. “While we remain constructive on Oklo’s differentiated build-own-operate model, pipeline conversion, HALEU recycling, and DOE/DoD contracting, we view near-term risk/reward as balanced.”

She also raised her price target to $117 from $92.

Separately, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report “in just 15 days, compared to the typical 30–60 days following submission,” the company shared in a press release, noting that “recent legislation and executive orders have called for the delivery of more nuclear power for clean, reliable energy on accelerated timelines, and this is how it’s done.”

Per the company, the PDC report establishes a regulatory framework for future reactor licensing and design activities, and once approved, effectively streamlines Oklo’s deployment of advanced reactors by reducing unnecessary steps in the licensing process.

In a note published on Monday, Barclays analysts wrote that “government approval of each step of the process is one of the largest moats in the space,” especially considering the “prolonged, expensive, and complex” regulatory framework under the NRC.

Oklo is up 65% in the past month, riding a wave of investor enthusiasm for clean power plays as the market anticipates a surge in AI-related energy demand. Earlier this morning, shares were under pressure after BofA cut the stock to “neutral” from “buy.”

Separately, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepted Oklo’s Principal Design Criteria topical report “in just 15 days, compared to the typical 30–60 days following submission,” the company shared in a press release, noting that “recent legislation and executive orders have called for the delivery of more nuclear power for clean, reliable energy on accelerated timelines, and this is how it’s done.”

Per the company, the PDC report establishes a regulatory framework for future reactor licensing and design activities, and once approved, effectively streamlines Oklo’s deployment of advanced reactors by reducing unnecessary steps in the licensing process.

In a note published on Monday, Barclays analysts wrote that “government approval of each step of the process is one of the largest moats in the space,” especially considering the “prolonged, expensive, and complex” regulatory framework under the NRC.

Oklo is up 65% in the past month, riding a wave of investor enthusiasm for clean power plays as the market anticipates a surge in AI-related energy demand. Earlier this morning, shares were under pressure after BofA cut the stock to “neutral” from “buy.”

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Retail traders rush into Wolfspeed as it exits Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Wolfspeed is in the midst of completing a very peculiar double act.

Shares of the embattled silicon carbide semiconductor maker are roaring higher in the premarket session after the company announced after the close on Monday that it has successfully completed its restructuring process and is exiting the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process.

The stock also nearly doubled on July 1 after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy!

As of 8:15 a.m. ET, Wolfspeed is among the most mentioned and most positively mentioned tickers on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets over the past 12 hours, per SwaggyStocks data.

SwaggyStocks WSB mentions — Source: SwaggyStocks

Betting on a very beaten-down company — or outright providing the fuel for a second lease on life — has been a popular strategy among retail traders in search of asymmetry. Opendoor Technologies might be the most recent example of this phenomenon, but the best one is probably Hertz, which retail traders flocked to during the pandemic in 2020 even as the car rental company filed for Chapter 11.

On Monday, the company issued new shares and canceled its old stock as part of this restructuring plan, significantly diluting its preexisting shareholder base.

“Through the restructuring process, Wolfspeed has reduced its total debt by approximately 70%, with maturities extended to 2030, and lowered its annual cash interest expense by roughly 60%,” according to its press release. “With a self-funded business plan supported by free cash flow generation, Wolfspeed is well positioned to leverage its vertically-integrated 200mm manufacturing footprint — underpinned by a secure and scalable US-based supply chain — to drive sustainable growth.”

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CoreWeave’s streak of deals continues with $14 billion agreement with Meta for AI compute

CoreWeave signed a deal to provide up to $14.2 billion of compute to Meta on September 25, according to a filing released this morning. The pact lasts through December 14, 2031, and includes an option for the Zuckerberg-run company “to materially expand its commitment through 2032 for additional cloud computing capacity.”

This news comes on the heels of last week’s announcement that CoreWeave was expanding its agreement with OpenAI to train its models, which is poised to add up to $6.5 billion to its preexisting contract with the GenAI developer.

Separately, CoreWeave also unveiled a $6.3 billion pact with Nvidia to supply it with any unused cloud computing capacity through April 12, 2032, earlier this month.

But by the looks of these deals that CoreWeave and its peers have struck with hyperscalers, all that compute may be spoken for.

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Denmark revises GDP growth lower as key exporter Novo Nordisk struggles

Denmark’s economic growth has been revised lower amid a slump at the country’s largest company, Novo Nordisk.

According to Statistics Denmark on Tuesday, the country’s second-quarter GDP growth was revised down to 1% from the previously reported 1.3%, due to updated foreign trade data. The revision follows recent forecast cuts from both the Danish central bank and the government, both citing a pharmaceutical export slowdown as a partial driver.

Denmark Revises Economic Growth Rate Lower Amid Novo’s Slump

Denmark Revises Economic Growth Rate Lower Amid Novo’s Slump

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Claire Yubin Oh5h

Firefly Aerospace falls after losing a rocket stage during a preflight test

Firefly Aerospace shares plunged as much as 13% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the company disclosed an incident that resulted in the loss of the rocket stage during a test at its facility in Briggs, Texas.

“During testing at Firefly’s facility in Briggs Texas, the first stage of Firefly’s Alpha Flight 7 rocket experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage,” Firefly shared in a statement. The company said that all personnel were safe and that it’s assessing the impact to its stage test stand, with no other facilities affected.

The mission for the tested vehicle, which the rocket maker is preparing for Lockheed Martin, is planned to launch no earlier than Q4 2025.

Firefly, which made the headlines after successfully landing its Blue Ghost robotic spacecraft on the moon in March, has been struggling recently after a series of failed launches, including its most recent Alpha launch in April, which exploded during a preflight test.

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