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Luke Kawa

Nvidia falls as the chip designer pushes back against “erroneous chatter” of supply constraints

Nvidia is dropping amid a broad pullback in the AI trade as the company’s newsroom moves to address some “erroneous chatter in the media.”

The drop has propelled shares below their 50-day moving average for the first time since early May.

The $4 trillion chip designer doth protest too much, methinks.

To this erroneous chatterer, parsing what’s directly written and omitted, this just sounds like a longer way of saying that all supply constraints are solely concentrated in its current flagship Blackwell chips. That’s understandable! It’s a lot better to be in a situation where everyone wants your newest product faster than you can deliver it than one where you’re producing a lot of something nobody seems to want.

And here’s Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the conference call following the release of Q2 earnings last week:

“Right now, the buzz is — Im sure all of you know about the buzz out there. The buzz is everythings sold out. H100 is sold out, H200s are sold out.”

So. There’s that. It’s not Huang saying that’s what’s happening, but it’s not him saying that’s not happening.

Nvidia reported a whopping 56% growth in data center revenues in Q2 — but that was still lower than the Street anticipated. We “know” that demand for Nvidia’s chips is massive and exceeds supply. So if you’re not demand constrained, that doesn’t really leave much in the way of alternative explanations for why that particular part of its business came up just short of a very high bar.

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Oil settles Friday at highest level since start of war

US oil prices moved higher in afternoon trading Friday, sapping strength from the stock market as they posted their highest close since the start of the Iran war.

After another day where the Strait of Hormuz was essentially closed to global tanker traffic, US futures for West Texas Intermediate settled up 3.1% at $98.71 a barrel for an 8.6% weekly gain, per Dow Jones data.

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

American officials have discussed using the US Navy to escort tankers through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, but have said plans for such convoys are not ready yet. However, it is unclear if military convoys would bring an end to the war-related dislocations in the oil market.

“It could help,” Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at energy consulting firm Rystad, told Sherwood News in a recent interview. “It could also go in a lot of different directions if a Navy ship is hit or if a tanker is hit.”

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Memory stocks rebound off last weeks losses

Memory stocks Micron, Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings rose again Friday, putting these crucial providers of chips for AI inference work on track for big weekly gains after last week’s steep losses following the outbreak of war with Iran.

There’s no obvious trigger for the move higher for these shares this week, other than a bit of a recovery in the AI trade more broadly — AI beneficiaries like IT cable and connections maker Amphenol and custom chip and networking company Marvell Technology clawed back some gains this week — perhaps due Oracle’s earnings earlier, and some mean reversion to boot.

Micron is due to report earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday, with the company catching a couple price target hikes this week, including one from Wedbush on Friday.

Sandisk is something of a different story, as its enormous gains over the last 12 months — roughly 1,200% — have made it a momentum play beloved by the retail crowd.

It was up about 20% this week at around 11 a.m. ET. And its nearly 170% gain this year keeps the stock on top of the S&P 500, in terms of price performance.

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