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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Speaks At The Bipartisan Policy Center
Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks about the future of artificial intelligence and its effect on energy consumption and production (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
First among AI-quals

Nvidia’s trouncing the competition like it’s about to deliver monster earnings

Outsized gains for Nvidia versus a broad index of chip stocks raises questions about how the stock will react to next month’s earnings report.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia, the chip designer powering the AI boom, has rocketed to new all-time highs in October with a 17% gain. In the process, it’s pulling away from its peers in a big way — the kind of thing that usually happens when the company is about to deliver a blowout set of quarterly numbers, or just did.

As of about 2:15 p.m. ET this afternoon, Nvidia is up more than double digits over the past 10 sessions, far outpacing the VanEck Semiconductor ETF’s advance. Last week, that two-week outperformance got to as much as 12.1%. That’s nearly the biggest gap between Nvidia and the semi crowd outside of the immediate run-up to or aftermath of an earnings release. The more positive outlier was the start of this year, when torrents of fresh money flowed into the AI bellwether.  

The thing is… Nvidia’s earnings report isn’t just around the corner. It’s a month away (11/21).

A couple non-exhaustive, non-mutually exclusive theories on what’s going on here:

  1. ASML’s latest quarterly report touched on some softness in chip demand ex-AI. The AI trade could be back to more of a winner-take-all mode, with Nvidia (rightfully) at its epicenter. A point in favor of this: every other time Nvidia’s gained at least 10% in a month since May 2023, the broader semiconductor group has done at least twice as well as it has this month. Earnings reports from the so-called hyperscalers (megacap tech firms investing heavily in AI) come well before Nvidia’s, which will allow for some more proof points for this thesis to be confirmed or rejected.

  2. The bump Nvidia has gotten in the past from posting good earnings is getting pulled forward, and that’s raising the bar for how good the numbers actually have to be next to keep those gains going when the report actually lands. Some backing for this: out of the last six earnings reports, the two in which Nvidia did the best compared to semis heading into the announcement (8/23/2023 and 8/23/2024) saw a pretty lackluster relative performance thereafter.

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

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Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

markets

Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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