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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Speaks At The Bipartisan Policy Center
Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang speaks about the future of artificial intelligence and its effect on energy consumption and production (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
First among AI-quals

Nvidia’s trouncing the competition like it’s about to deliver monster earnings

Outsized gains for Nvidia versus a broad index of chip stocks raises questions about how the stock will react to next month’s earnings report.

Luke Kawa

Nvidia, the chip designer powering the AI boom, has rocketed to new all-time highs in October with a 17% gain. In the process, it’s pulling away from its peers in a big way — the kind of thing that usually happens when the company is about to deliver a blowout set of quarterly numbers, or just did.

As of about 2:15 p.m. ET this afternoon, Nvidia is up more than double digits over the past 10 sessions, far outpacing the VanEck Semiconductor ETF’s advance. Last week, that two-week outperformance got to as much as 12.1%. That’s nearly the biggest gap between Nvidia and the semi crowd outside of the immediate run-up to or aftermath of an earnings release. The more positive outlier was the start of this year, when torrents of fresh money flowed into the AI bellwether.  

The thing is… Nvidia’s earnings report isn’t just around the corner. It’s a month away (11/21).

A couple non-exhaustive, non-mutually exclusive theories on what’s going on here:

  1. ASML’s latest quarterly report touched on some softness in chip demand ex-AI. The AI trade could be back to more of a winner-take-all mode, with Nvidia (rightfully) at its epicenter. A point in favor of this: every other time Nvidia’s gained at least 10% in a month since May 2023, the broader semiconductor group has done at least twice as well as it has this month. Earnings reports from the so-called hyperscalers (megacap tech firms investing heavily in AI) come well before Nvidia’s, which will allow for some more proof points for this thesis to be confirmed or rejected.

  2. The bump Nvidia has gotten in the past from posting good earnings is getting pulled forward, and that’s raising the bar for how good the numbers actually have to be next to keep those gains going when the report actually lands. Some backing for this: out of the last six earnings reports, the two in which Nvidia did the best compared to semis heading into the announcement (8/23/2023 and 8/23/2024) saw a pretty lackluster relative performance thereafter.

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The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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