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Luke Kawa

Nvidia tumbles as China pushes toward an AI boom without the US juggernaut

What does an AI boom look like without Nvidia at its epicenter?

More and more, it seems that China is willing to test out those uncharted waters.

Shares of the $4 trillion chip designer are down more than 3% in early trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that Alibaba is developing a chip for AI inference tasks manufactured domestically, the latest in a series of signs that the country is looking to wean itself off of any dependence on Nvidia and US technology to develop its AI capabilities.

The Chinese AI market is of no small import to Nvidia. On the conference call following earnings this week, CEO Jensen Huang called it a $50 billion opportunity that he expects to grow at 50% per year.

But China has reportedly told its leading tech companies to forgo purchases of Nvidia’s H20 chips, citing data security concerns. These allegations regarding data security have been denied by Nvidia, and appear to reflect China’s desire to avoid having its AI development be beholden to the whims of US policymakers.

Nvidia had been effectively locked out of China’s AI market since mid-April, when export curbs were enacted, and didn’t receive licenses to ship H20 processors to the world’s second-largest economy until August. The chip designer reportedly halted production of these chips recently, which suggests that China’s directive to its tech giants has some teeth.

Without access to the most advanced technology, China will have to effectively make up for what it lacks in ability with volume.

This news also comes as other, smaller Chinese chipmakers begin to capture more attention from domestic investors. Cambricon, for instance, soared 15% to a record high earlier this week after reporting surging sales growth. Its share price more than doubled in a span of less than three weeks. Per the Financial Times, Chinese officials have told their biggest domestic chipmaker, SMIC, to devote some more capacity to Cambricon rather than give all the availability to Huawei Technologies, which is currently the country’s most advanced AI chip developer.

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With their recent surge, Intel shares just hit their highest level since the dot-com era

Intel’s surge of nearly 60% this month has the iconic American chipmaker’s stock price approaching levels last seen during the dot-com era. Bloomberg noted that shares just touched their highest intraday level since the turn of the century:

The stock rose as much as 1.5% to $69.55, topping a peak it hit on Jan. 24, 2020. The shares are up 90% this year, after soaring 84% in 2025. Intel is now roughly 8% from its all-time closing high of $74.88, established on Aug. 31, 2000.

That’s just the most recent late-’90s-era throwback we’ve been seeing in tech shares lately. Oracle is currently pacing for its best week since late 1999.

What’s even more remarkable, however, is that Intel’s forward price-to-earnings ratio today dwarfs the premiums the market was putting on the stock during the nuttiness of the dot-com mania.

That reflects the fact that the recent run-up in Intel shares is, essentially, giving the chip giant credit for a massive turnaround that hasn’t actually happened yet.

One also might wonder if the fact that Intel is partially owned by the US government means it’s more attractive — and therefore worth a higher premium — than other chipmakers without the state imprimatur.

Still, kind of startling.

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Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 pill hit nearly 1,400 prescriptions in first week

Eli Lilly rose after preliminary numbers cited by Wall Street analysts showed strong uptake of its new weight-loss pill.

The FDA approved Foundayo on April 1 and shipments began on April 9. In its first week, roughly 1,400 US prescriptions were written for the drug, according to IQVIA data cited by Deustche Bank analysts in a Friday note.

Novo Nordisk, Lilly’s rival in the GLP-1 market, released its GLP-1 pill earlier this year, and early signs show that it’s expanding the market, inviting patients who were turned off by weekly injections. Novo’s pill had a stronger first week than Lilly’s, with its Wegovy pill hitting 3,071 US prescriptions in the first four days after its launch on January 5.

Lilly’s pill has an advantage over Novo’s, which is that it can be taken at any time of day, with or without food. Lilly disclosed in a February regulatory filing that it had $1.5 billion worth of prelaunch inventory ready ahead of the FDA approval — which is about as much as analysts polled by FactSet expect it to sell this year.

Novo Nordisk, Lilly’s rival in the GLP-1 market, released its GLP-1 pill earlier this year, and early signs show that it’s expanding the market, inviting patients who were turned off by weekly injections. Novo’s pill had a stronger first week than Lilly’s, with its Wegovy pill hitting 3,071 US prescriptions in the first four days after its launch on January 5.

Lilly’s pill has an advantage over Novo’s, which is that it can be taken at any time of day, with or without food. Lilly disclosed in a February regulatory filing that it had $1.5 billion worth of prelaunch inventory ready ahead of the FDA approval — which is about as much as analysts polled by FactSet expect it to sell this year.

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Critical Metals jumps after Greenland’s government approves CRML to take majority control of the Tanbreez mining project

Critical Metals is up more than 25% in premarket trading on Friday after the critical mining company announced that it now owns 92.5% of the Tanbreez rare earth deposit following an approval from the government of Greenland.

With that latest government support, Critical Minerals added an additional 50.5% stake to its ownership, reportedly acquired from Rimbal Pty Ltd, per Bloomberg News. With access to eight heavy rare earth elements often used in consumer electronics and defense, the site is one of the world’s largest undeveloped rare earth deposits and a key source of rare earth supply outside of China, according to the company.

In Critical Metals’ press release, Chairman Tony Sage commented that the approval “removes the most significant structural overhang on the project and provides the clarity to advance Tanbreez to production with confidence,” especially as Tanbreez’s location offers a significant logistical advantage through its year-round direct shipping access, compared to rival projects.

With 92.5% of the project now vested in Critical Metals Corp., and the remainder owned by European Lithium Ltd., CRML now has full control of the project and is seeking to accelerate development there, with plans for a new international airport and a 150-tonne bulk sample program, which is slated for June 2026.

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