markets

Luke Kawa12/15/25

Nvidia’s favorite stocks are getting shellacked as AI credit risk spreads

Nvidia’s “House of GPUs” is looking a little wobbly.

Shares of Applied Digital, CoreWeave, and Nebius — three of the four biggest equity positions held by the chip designer as of September 30 — are getting crushed on Monday.

Nvidia owned about $3.6 billion worth of these data center and neocloud stocks (with the overwhelming majority in CoreWeave) per its most recent 13F filing.

The AI credit risk that’s been most talked about in reference to Oracle’s widening credit default swaps spreads is also present in some of these firms, as well.

An Applied Digital bond due in 2030 is trading below $96 for the first time this month. That issuance was made to support data centers where CoreWeave will be the main tenant.

CoreWeave, which earlier this year received warrants enabling it to purchase a large chunk of Applied Digital shares as part of a data center leasing deal, sank last week after announcing a $2 billion convertible note offering that was later upsized.

Of course, it’s not just Nvidia-owned stocks, but the entire data center ecosystem that’s under pressure on Monday. Cipher Mining and IREN are also getting walloped — with Monday’s crypto tumble also likely weighing on these two bitcoin miners turned data center companies.

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Constellation, Talen, and NRG surge as BNP analysts see “golden (AI)ge” ahead for them

Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.

That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”

Here’s the gist of it:

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.

And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.

BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)

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