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OpenAI burning
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OpenAI’s planned cash burn was unlike anything we’d ever seen — now they’re doubling it

OpenAI is still the molten mass at the center of the AI universe, burning billions as it pulls talent, capital, and companies into its orbit.

David Crowther

Many of the world’s most successful tech startups burned cash for years before they got out of the red. Lighting tens of millions of dollars — or even a few billion in the most extreme cases, like Uber, Tesla, or Netflix — on fire every year became the norm as growth-obsessed disruptors invested in software, hardware, branding, and content to reach the scale required for their margins to turn positive.

But, as we noted last year, the sheer scale of OpenAI’s cash burn plans have been unlike anything we’ve ever seen. And thanks to some great new reporting from The Information late last week, we know that the company’s cash burn forecasts are actually even more insane than we previously thought.

Per the new figures reported, OpenAI expects to burn through $218 billion between 2026 and 2029, about $111 billion more than the company’s internal projections from just two quarters ago.

OpenAI cash burn
Sherwood News

That $218 billion is 23x what Tesla burned in its cash-incinerating phase from 2007 to 2018.

In fairness to OpenAI, ChatGPT is probably still the fastest-growing stand-alone product of all time, and if the company hits its revenue goal, it certainly won’t be the cash burn of previous years that has people talking.

Indeed, after chewing through the equivalent of the GDP of Ukraine, the company expects cash flow to turn dramatically positive in 2030 as revenue soars to ~$280 billion in 2030 thanks to consumer ChatGPT subscriptions as well as a plethora of new revenue streams, including API access, dedicated agentic enterprise subscriptions, advertising, and even AI-powered hardware (including maybe a smart speaker and a smart lamp).

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SpaceX gets a wave of bullish ratings from Wall Street analysts

SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

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Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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